Just too much going on in Central America.
The NVG and GFS models are suggesting that once the tropical depression that's now near the Guatemalan Pacific coast comes inland over Mexico, a chaotic weather situation there will result. Out of that chaos, a physically-large tropical system will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. Winds might not be that high, due to the storm's physically-large size - just too large to wind up with intensity - but intense rainbands would be found quite distant to the east from the storm's center. So, the center of the low might reach the Gulf of Mexico's northern shore around the TX-LA border about June 9th, but the heaviest rains might not fall there, but instead around the Pensacola or Tallahassee area. Tampa might be clipped by some of these rains.
The fact that both models are giving broadly similar results adds weight to the forecast.
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