The Twin Hurricane Scenario

For the last 17 years I've been doing hurricane path forecasts for friends who retired to Tampa, Florida. Mostly through word-of-mouth, I've slowly built an underground following in Florida. Summer 2020 promises to be an unusually-difficult hurricane season, so I'll be busier than usual.

In the next several weeks we may see something unprecedented - a storm cross Central America, and strengthen! It's very difficult for storms to cross Central America - maybe once in a decade a storm will make the crossing - and the ones that do cross are so weakened they almost-invariably fail. Maybe not this time!

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(As now being forecast by NVG and GFS models.)

The storm system passing over Florida right now - with showers currently east of the peninsula - is beginning to signs of development, but nothing will come of it. The system will move north and affect little.

The models are now suggesting a kind of nightmarish twin-hurricane scenario starting around May 30th, with trouble for Florida starting around June 7th. The scenario starts something like this:

Twin tropical depressions initiate around 10 degrees latitude north. The stronger system is to the west, developing in the Pacific south of El Salvador. The weaker system starts in the Caribbean just north of Panama.

The western storm slams into El Salvador, with much loss of life, but instead of disintegrating, the storm does a rare, once-in-a-decade thing, and crosses over to a different ocean, emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Belize, and then marches north.

The eastern storm slowly strengthens, slams into Jamaica, and passes into the Atlantic between Cuba and Haiti.

By June 7th, the strong western hurricane starts hitting Florida from the south, following a kind of Irma-esque path.

Details are bound to change as we get closer to the end of the month, but that's how we're looking at the moment.