The Tropical Moisture Approaches

The last two iterations of model runs suggest that, as a part of the big northward push of tropical moisture next week, that it’s possible a tropical storm, or at least heavy rains, will form in the vicinity of Florida in about six days, on Thursday of next week.

Currently, the modeling can’t decide what form the challenge will take. The NOGAPS model creates a sloppy-looking tropical storm not far west of Tampa and takes it towards New Orleans. The GFS model decides to take the chaotic remnants of Hurricane Carlotta in southern Mexico, transports them across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and creates a tropical storm in the extreme western Gulf of Mexico, but largely leaves Florida alone. Both alternative futures look equally plausible right now.

So, the tropical moisture is coming north, with some embedded surprises for someone.

[UPDATE: And within the last hour, the NOGAPS model changed its very changeable mind and decided it too likes the tropical storm in the extreme western Gulf of Mexico option (while forming a tropical depression east of Florida, just to keep people from getting too complacent).

But these alternative futures are still very squishy.]