TD 16 will be troublesome for the folks in Miami, however, and up to SE Florida coast, to Cape Canaveral. Right now, TD16 doesn’t look very powerful, mostly because it’s a very-broad, slow-moving gyre, a legacy of Tropical Storm Matthew. To the National Weather Service people, it looks very strange: it doesn’t fit the usual mold of tropical storms. They are more-familiar with smaller systems that pack more punch.
The National Weather Service discussion makes interesting, maybe even amusing, reading:
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM PRESSURE. INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR MORE OF THE CENTER. CLEARLY...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ...HOWEVER... AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. IN ANY EVENT...RECENT HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES AND VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM PREDICTION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS ALSO SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH REPLACING THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
No comments:
Post a Comment