Shifty Ike

Hanna is approaching hurricane strength as it nears landfall tonight (perhaps a short distance east of Charleston, SC).

Earlier this week, the models suggested Hanna would be something of a stalking horse for Ike, and lead Ike offshore and keep it away from Florida. The models’ forecasts have shifted westward again, however. Currently the GFS model is projecting a path that could take out both the Miami area, and Tampa. NOGAPS is a little more generous and takes out only Miami and at the last minute saves Tampa. These forecasts are both quite dire, but because they jump unexpectedly and feature unusual shifts to the SW, I’m reluctant to place much faith in them yet.

It’s still a bit early and the forecasts for Ike could easily shift eastwards again.