Big Leaf-Fall Weekend

On Saturday it was windy as all get out. I decided that was the perfect time to rake leaves.

"But Marc," you might say, "no one else is doing that. It's too windy! Why would you choose that moment to move leaves around?"

Well, who cares what everyone else is doing? Following the crowd isn't the way I roll (unless, of course, everyone is heading to see a show, in which case I fall into line like everyone else).

In any case, the wind was acting like a giant leafblower, which helped corral the leaves in big drifts and assisted me in creating a giant pile of leaves for the City of Sacramento to collect with their giant claw on Monday. True, the giant pile deflated a bit from the howling winds stripping leaves away, and someone else farther down the street no doubt faced a bigger leaf impact as a result, but like I say, causing other people problems is just part of the fun!

Not all is bright and fair in our 'City of Trees'. The City of Sacramento wants to substitute green waste containers - 90 gallon cans - similar to the 'toters' they use in Woodland, for Sacramento's current street disposal system for collecting green waste.

The Sacramento Bee, among other city worthies, urges that The Claw be abandoned, or at least diminished through the use of green waste containers:

Sacramento can take small but important steps to shore up its environmental reputation tonight with two ordinances before the City Council.

The first would allow voters to repeal a 1977 city charter amendment, "Measure A," that blocks the city from requiring container bins for green waste. That ordinance was passed when composting wasn't a household word and when residents clung to an age-old practice of raking leaves into streets, for the city to scoop up.

Much has changed since then. The city now composts all the yard waste it collects, and since 2004 it has urged residents in parts of the city to voluntarily use green waste containers.

Thousands have responded. Some 85,000 households now have the green bins, and another 30,000 will be offered bins by mid-2010.

So far, use of the green containers has been concentrated mostly in areas north of the American River. In the central city, the city continues to be prowled by The Claw – tractors fitted with triangular jaws that scoop up the green waste residents pile into the streets.

Some Sacramentans consider The Claw to be a sacred part of their heritage. But more and more residents see it as an artifact of a bygone era. The Claw trucks run on diesel, adding pollution to the air. Switching to green containers would require fewer trucks, saving the city money.

Piling leaves in the streets, as we know now, causes an array of hazards. It can endanger bicyclists and clog the city's aging storm drains. It also interferes with chemical agents the Sacramento-Yolo Mosquito and Vector Control District uses to battle mosquitoes in the storm drains, according to district officials.

Repealing the 1977 ordinance wouldn't directly lead to the end of The Claw and the start of green bins everywhere. The city would need to keep some tractors around to pick up tree branches and other material after big storms.

But there's no reason the city needs The Claw to run a weekly circuit. Mandating green waste bins could go a long way toward saving the city money while reducing its environmental footprint.

I don't know how that is going to work in the autumn, however, when every tree dumps tons of leaves and branches. I mean, this weekend, I moved about seven toters worth of leaves into the street (two toters worth which promptly headed downwind with the westerly gusts). One toter would simply be overwhelmed by the volume! And I don't even live in an area notable for its sizes of trees. Some of the older neighborhoods (e.g., the Fab 40) have bigger trees and many, many, many more leaves, and branches, and logs to dispose of!

No, we need to retain the Claw system. The rate that Sacramento has been charging for this service has been accelerating more than the rate of inflation anyway, so I don't know why is anyone complaining about the cost. We've already paid for this service!

Back in the day, when I walked my dog Sparky late at night, the green waste piles in the street provided a surreptitious and socially-acceptable way to dispose of dog droppings. Otherwise, all that dog stuff ends up in the garbage cans, where it bakes on warm summer days. In addition, garbage-pickers are likely to fling it back onto the street in an uncontrolled manner. Of course, I don't know if the green waste end-user approved of my use of the street piles for this purpose, but I definitely needed the service, as do many others today who own and walk dogs.

Sacramento's venerable green waste street-disposal system makes me feel like I am getting something worthwhile for my utility bill! Contrary to what the Sacramento Bee says, it is not antiquated to support what works best in a city filthy with trees. Abandon The Claw, and peasants like me will revolt! Do not repeal, but support "Measure A"!

Ball Of Confusion

Last night, I had the joyful experience of listening to a portion of George Noory's Coast-to-Coast AM radio show. George's guest was Tim Ball, well-known climate change skeptic:

In the latter half of the program, environmental consultant Tim Ball discussed 'Climate Gate,' a coordinated effort to hide information about global warming. Someone hacked in to the files of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) based at the University of East Anglia and found damaging emails that show that scientists at the Unit created and manipulated false data to preserve the idea that global warming is real.

Since 2002, global temperatures have been declining, and numbers from the past have been pushed down to make the current temps seem warmer, he argued. We're seeing climate change ideas, often based on overly simplistic computer models, used as a vehicle for political purposes, he added.

Unsurprisingly, Ball made mistakes on the radio show, and, of course, George Noory was too enthralled by his guest to even notice the mistakes. For example, Ball mocked climate scientists for maintaining that one of the effects of global warming would be drought. Didn't the scientists understand that a warmer Earth would lead to more water vapor in the atmosphere, and thus more precipitation?

Of course, if it was that simple, hot and humid places like the Persian Gulf would be rainy places too, but, of course, they are not. Rainfall requires mechanisms that lift and cool air, and in the mid-latitude regions of the Earth, where Rossby waves are active, those mechanisms require a temperature gradient between the pole and the equator. Since global warming is forecast to be greatest at the poles, the effect will be to diminish that temperature gradient, which will shut down rainfall mechanisms, and lead to - drought. It hardly matters how humid it is; if it doesn't rain, the farmer suffers.

Ball also seems unaware of recent and continuing advances in modeling the presence of clouds in climate models. His accusations would carry more weight if he bothered reading the literature.

Nevertheless, the CRU E-Mail hack causes problems for the climatological community. Nothing distracts like scandal, and as long as the slimy fossil-fuel community can pretend that a real scandal has occurred, then they can change the subject from the data and take the initiative.

Everyone is getting involved in this. Even my brother-in-law E-Mailed me:

So, Mr. scientist, what do you think about the CRU?

Huh?

Climate Research Unit.

I replied:

I have no problem with the CRU. Compared to their enemies, they are pure as driven snow.

Nevertheless, the CRU appears to be mishandling their public relations problem. Here is an interesting skeptical opinion piece by Mr. Monbiot on the matter, which Mr. Ball found favor with:

It is true that much of what has been revealed could be explained as the usual cut and thrust of the peer review process, exacerbated by the extraordinary pressure the scientists were facing from a denial industry determined to crush them. One of the most damaging emails was sent by the head of the climatic research unit, Phil Jones. He wrote "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"

One of these papers which was published in the journal Climate Research turned out to be so badly flawed that the scandal resulted in the resignation of the editor-in-chief. Jones knew that any incorrect papers by sceptical scientists would be picked up and amplified by climate change deniers funded by the fossil fuel industry, who often – as I documented in my book Heat – use all sorts of dirty tricks to advance their cause.

Even so, his message looks awful. It gives the impression of confirming a potent meme circulated by those who campaign against taking action on climate change: that the IPCC process is biased. However good the detailed explanations may be, most people aren't going to follow or understand them. Jones's statement, on the other hand, is stark and easy to grasp.

In this case you could argue that technically he has done nothing wrong. But a fat lot of good that will do. Think of the MPs' expenses scandal: complaints about stolen data, denials and huffy responses achieved nothing at all. Most of the MPs could demonstrate that technically they were innocent: their expenses had been approved by the Commons office. It didn't change public perceptions one jot. The only responses that have helped to restore public trust in Parliament are humility, openness and promises of reform.

...Some people say that I am romanticising science, that it is never as open and honest as the Popperian ideal. Perhaps. But I know that opaqueness and secrecy are the enemies of science. There is a word for the apparent repeated attempts to prevent disclosure revealed in these emails: unscientific.

...The handling of this crisis suggests that nothing has been learnt by climate scientists in this country from 20 years of assaults on their discipline. They appear to have no idea what they're up against or how to confront it. Their opponents might be scumbags, but their media strategy is exemplary.

The greatest tragedy here is that despite many years of outright fabrication, fraud and deceit on the part of the climate change denial industry, documented in James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore's brilliant new book Climate Cover-up, it is now the climate scientists who look bad. By comparison to his opponents, Phil Jones is pure as the driven snow. Hoggan and Littlemore have shown how fossil fuel industries have employed "experts" to lie, cheat and manipulate on their behalf. The revelations in their book (as well as in Heat and in Ross Gelbspan's book The Heat Is On) are 100 times graver than anything contained in these emails.

But the deniers' campaign of lies, grotesque as it is, does not justify secrecy and suppression on the part of climate scientists. Far from it: it means that they must distinguish themselves from their opponents in every way.

Climatologists are fighting a well-funded enemy that never sleeps. I'm afraid Mr. Monbiot wants to hold climatologists to a standard that neither they, nor anyone else, can reach without neutering themselves.

It's nice to be pure, but I'd rather win than be pure. No, it's time to bury the bodies and move on. It's time to take the offensive, for a change.

Auckland Photo Feature

Here's a nice picture feature on Auckland, NZ. The subject is ostensibly New Zealand wineries, but it looks like they barely left town, with just a visit to Waiheke Island, a place that is ostensibly a "home to artists and other bohemians" but in reality is too expensive for most of those folks.

Nevertheless, the pictures are nice!

A Walk Down A Country Lane

After dinner, several of us took a walk down a country lane on the western outskirts of Guinda.

Almost immediately, we startled a cat hiding in the grass, which promptly turned tail and fled. Despite its small size, only slightly-bigger than a regular housecat, the cat's robust physique and distinctive ears left no doubt: it was a bobcat! I've never seen a bobcat in the wild before!


Lynn was greatly surprised to discover that this little creek was dry. In all his years, he had never seen the creek dry before.

Well, excepting that one storm in mid-October, it HAS been pretty dry lately!

There were some great bucolic views of the Coast Range on this walk. We saw and heard lots of western meadowlarks and scrub jays. In the distance, we saw four or five peacocks. We could also hear geese on distant farms. Small birds (gnatcatchers? kinglets?) also fluttered about.

Beautiful oaks! California has some gorgeous country!

Imogene has this beautiful tree (a maple?) in her back yard.

Thanksgiving 2009

Like last year, Sally and I headed into northwest Yolo County's Capay Valley to eat Thanksgiving dinner with her friend Imogene, and her family.

Sally knew the way, so she drove....

No! Stop!

What do you mean this isn't that kind of trip?

Uh, I need to stop for a smoke!

Yes, I know I don't smoke....






Which just brings to mind Gary Larson's cartoon....



Good things come to those who wait. Here, on the outskirts of Guinda, an inviting country lane leads to Imogene's house, and Thanksgiving dinner!

The Cactus Hours

The Cactus Hours:

Nocturnes----Lauds-----Terce
Prime----Vespers---Compline
Matins--------Sext---------Vigils

Pearls Before Swine

Well, not all pearls before all swine. Just one particular pearl before one particular swine.

I just bought an i-Phone....

Upgrading The Technology

I bought a fancy new DVD writer to go with the fancy new camcorder. Last night, I burned my first DVD (Sally's Nov. 2nd Japanese Folk Dancing class).

It hurts to learn new stuff.....

And "Courage" Was His Name

I remember 2006, when I was in Australia for Thanksgiving, and several of us there heard over the radio that President Bush had pardoned that year's Thanksgiving turkey so it could live out its retirement days at Disney World.

The Australians thought that was just too surreal.

It's no less surreal this year.....

Bridge to Nowhere

Up in Alaska, Sarah Palin was trying to find a use for her "Bridge to Nowhere", and she heard that San Francisco was having a particularly-pernicious bridge problem, so she thought she'd help out.

(This is fun - I shoulda been a conservative!)

We Want - Information!

What's happening in the UK is bound to be happening here soon as well:

Police are routinely arresting people simply to record their DNA profiles on the national database, according to a report published today.

It also states that three quarters of young black men are on the database. The finding risks stigmatising a whole section of society, the equality watchdog has warned.

The revelations will fuel the debate about the DNA database, the world’s largest. They are included in a report by the Human Genetics Commission, an independent government advisory body. It criticises the piecemeal development of the database and questions how effective it is in helping the police to investigate and solve crimes.

Jonathan Montgomery, commission chairman, said that “function creep” over the years had transformed a database of offenders into one of suspects. Almost one million innocent people are now on the DNA database.

Professor Montgomery said: “It’s now become pretty much routine to take DNA samples on arrest, so large numbers of people on the DNA database will be there not because they have been convicted, but because they’ve been arrested.”

Recorded crime has fallen every year since 2004-05, but the number of people arrested in England and Wales annually is rising. Latest figures show that arrests rose by 6 per cent to 1.43 million in 2005 and a further 4 per cent to 1.48 million in 2006-07.

Professor Montgomery said there was some evidence that people were arrested to retain the DNA information even though they might not have been arrested in other circumstance.

He said that a retired senior police officer told the commission: “It is now the norm to arrest offenders for everything if there is a power to do so. It is apparently understood by serving police officers that one of the reasons . . . is so that DNA can be obtained.” He said that the tradition of only arresting someone when dealing with serious offences had collapsed.

Possible AZ Rains

In line with the speculative El Niño post from yesterday, here is some optimistic news: possible AZ rains are being forecast by the computer models, associated with a cutoff low passing near or through the area.

Cutoff lows are among the most difficult features for computer models to get right. Lack of adequate data constrains proper forecasts. Cutoff lows can generate lots of rain, or no rain at all, depending on the timing and location of their moves.

The GFS model forecasts a weak AZ storm over the weekend. The NOGAPS model forecasts a much stronger storm, on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

AZ is so dry right now: let’s hope for the bigger storm!

With Shoppers Like Me....

Who needs a recession? People like me will be the death of the economy yet. I know I've already bought most of my loot for the year and will spend very little at the stores this holiday season:

US retailers are taking desperate measures to spark holiday sales in the face of what promises to be another troubled year-end shopping season.

Merchants are furiously working to ramp up consumer interest ahead of "Black Friday," on November 27, the day after the Thanksgiving Day holiday that marks the traditional kickoff of the holiday gift season.

Some are promising price cuts of 50 percent or more on some hot electronics, and planning for big events to bring out shoppers for big sales promotions.

Analysts say retailers are struggling to find the right balance of inventories and discounts while cautious consumers are hesitating about how much and when to buy.

Clothing retailer Gap has started early with 25 percent discounts, while Wal-Mart and Target are offering online shoppers free or discounted shipping on many items. JC Penney is boosting Black Friday promotions and will open its doors at 4 am for the best deals.

Steven Dennis, executive-in-residence at Southern Methodist University's JC Penney Center for Retail Excellence, said price cuts may be deep but are not as broad as some might expect.

"I think most retailers are desperate for market share," he said. "Everyone seems to have the view that business is gong to be flat and it is a battle for market share."

But Dennis said retailers are not in the dire position of last year, when they had large amounts of inventory. So price cuts will mainly be on a few high-profile items to get consumers into the store "and hope they get a disproportionate share of their spending."

...Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, said she sees overall holiday retail sales growing 1.6 percent from last year, but that this will essentially be flat when adjusted for inflation.

"The quality of spending this holiday season will still be dismal, however, when compared to Christmases past," she said.

..."In an effort to reduce discounting, retailers have cut inventories to well below year-ago levels and are expected to keep them low through the holiday season. If merchants have underestimated demand, they could end up with bare shelves, losing sales."

...A survey by Visa USA found consumers plan on spending 161 dollars less on holiday shopping than last year and 368 dollars less than they planned two years ago.

In one sign of the times, several retailers have brought back the layaway plan, which enables customers to put down a deposit to hold merchandise until the full amount can be paid. Sears, Kmart and Toys R US are among those offering the plan, and a new online version of the program is offered through eLayaway.com.

One reason for this is that consumers are stretched and may have less access to credit.

With Friends Like This.....

Lou Dobbs moves with all the subtlety of an armored assault vehicle approaching trenches:

In an interview with the Spanish-language network Telemundo gaining attention Wednesday, Dobbs told interviewer Maria Celeste he is one of the Latino community's "greatest friends" and appeared willing to embrace a form of amnesty he spent years criticizing.

...Dobbs also brushed aside suggestions he is the "No. 1 enemy" of the Latino community, saying that image is a result of propaganda "efforts of the far left."

"Whatever you have thought of me in the past," Dobbs said, "I can tell you right now that I am one of your greatest friends and I mean for us to work together. I hope that will begin with Maria and me and Telemundo and other media organizations and others in this national debate that we should turn into a solution rather than a continuing debate and factional contest."

The comments come as Dobbs has fueled speculation the former anchorman may have his eye on politics as a second act, either in 2012 as a presidential candidate or as a challenger to New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, the only Hispanic in the Senate.

...Meanwhile, Robert Dilenschneider, a spokesman for Dobbs, told the New York Times Tuesday the former anchorman may take the "intermediary step" of challenging Menendez.

Impatient Clerks

The clerks at a Midtown AM/PM seemed impatient and a touch irritable when I saw them last night. The police were a little slow in responding to their call.

Last week, a strange man had entered the store, choked a customer, threw coffee around the premises, and knocked over store displays in some kind of berserk rage. Minutes before I got there the clerks had seen this strange man again, lurking outside and looking for an opportunity to re-enter the store.

Convenience store clerks always have to be on their toes when it comes to their clientele.

Whiter Shade Of Pale

It was rather magical last night, strolling past the new outdoor ice rink at 20th & J Streets after the sun had set. They have lights that appear to drip cool fluorescent fire from the trees aloft, and they were playing "Whiter Shade Of Pale", and it all seemed rather mystical and haunted.

Greenberg Trailer

Here we go! After becoming well-known amongst fans of Mumblecore Indie films, this is Greta Gerwig's big-time audience breakout movie! Co-star with Ben Stiller! Not bad for the St. Francis alum and once-upon-a-time Woodland Opera House actress!

The Seafarers

The Seafarers - Sea of Love from Eighty Four Films on Vimeo.

I like the message: Even in failure, there is success!

Solid Potato Salad - Ross Sisters

Wow, this is just amazing! The full number is also available on YouTube at lower quality.

In Regards To The Sudden Appearance Of Hacked Climatologist E-Mail Messages

All I have to say in regards to hacked E-Mail messages popping up and surprising climatologists who wrote them long ago is that I think it would be interesting to compare their messages with climate-change skeptic E-Mail messages over the same period. Let's lay ALL the cards on the table and see who is playing fair, and who is playing foul, with the data!