Police Ambushed

This looks pretty spooky:

Troyer said the attack was clearly targeted at the officers, not a robbery gone bad.

"This was more of an execution. Walk in with the specific mindset to shoot police officers," he said.

And it looks like former Arkansas Governor and potential presidential candidate Mike Huckabee will take a hit:

The man local police are seeking for questioning is Maurice Clemmons, 37, a man with a lifetime history of violence, burglary, aggravated robbery, theft and rape. Clemmons was serving what was essentially a life sentence in Arkansas before having his sentence commuted by then-Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Big Leaf-Fall Weekend

On Saturday it was windy as all get out. I decided that was the perfect time to rake leaves.

"But Marc," you might say, "no one else is doing that. It's too windy! Why would you choose that moment to move leaves around?"

Well, who cares what everyone else is doing? Following the crowd isn't the way I roll (unless, of course, everyone is heading to see a show, in which case I fall into line like everyone else).

In any case, the wind was acting like a giant leafblower, which helped corral the leaves in big drifts and assisted me in creating a giant pile of leaves for the City of Sacramento to collect with their giant claw on Monday. True, the giant pile deflated a bit from the howling winds stripping leaves away, and someone else farther down the street no doubt faced a bigger leaf impact as a result, but like I say, causing other people problems is just part of the fun!

Not all is bright and fair in our 'City of Trees'. The City of Sacramento wants to substitute green waste containers - 90 gallon cans - similar to the 'toters' they use in Woodland, for Sacramento's current street disposal system for collecting green waste.

The Sacramento Bee, among other city worthies, urges that The Claw be abandoned, or at least diminished through the use of green waste containers:

Sacramento can take small but important steps to shore up its environmental reputation tonight with two ordinances before the City Council.

The first would allow voters to repeal a 1977 city charter amendment, "Measure A," that blocks the city from requiring container bins for green waste. That ordinance was passed when composting wasn't a household word and when residents clung to an age-old practice of raking leaves into streets, for the city to scoop up.

Much has changed since then. The city now composts all the yard waste it collects, and since 2004 it has urged residents in parts of the city to voluntarily use green waste containers.

Thousands have responded. Some 85,000 households now have the green bins, and another 30,000 will be offered bins by mid-2010.

So far, use of the green containers has been concentrated mostly in areas north of the American River. In the central city, the city continues to be prowled by The Claw – tractors fitted with triangular jaws that scoop up the green waste residents pile into the streets.

Some Sacramentans consider The Claw to be a sacred part of their heritage. But more and more residents see it as an artifact of a bygone era. The Claw trucks run on diesel, adding pollution to the air. Switching to green containers would require fewer trucks, saving the city money.

Piling leaves in the streets, as we know now, causes an array of hazards. It can endanger bicyclists and clog the city's aging storm drains. It also interferes with chemical agents the Sacramento-Yolo Mosquito and Vector Control District uses to battle mosquitoes in the storm drains, according to district officials.

Repealing the 1977 ordinance wouldn't directly lead to the end of The Claw and the start of green bins everywhere. The city would need to keep some tractors around to pick up tree branches and other material after big storms.

But there's no reason the city needs The Claw to run a weekly circuit. Mandating green waste bins could go a long way toward saving the city money while reducing its environmental footprint.

I don't know how that is going to work in the autumn, however, when every tree dumps tons of leaves and branches. I mean, this weekend, I moved about seven toters worth of leaves into the street (two toters worth which promptly headed downwind with the westerly gusts). One toter would simply be overwhelmed by the volume! And I don't even live in an area notable for its sizes of trees. Some of the older neighborhoods (e.g., the Fab 40) have bigger trees and many, many, many more leaves, and branches, and logs to dispose of!

No, we need to retain the Claw system. The rate that Sacramento has been charging for this service has been accelerating more than the rate of inflation anyway, so I don't know why is anyone complaining about the cost. We've already paid for this service!

Back in the day, when I walked my dog Sparky late at night, the green waste piles in the street provided a surreptitious and socially-acceptable way to dispose of dog droppings. Otherwise, all that dog stuff ends up in the garbage cans, where it bakes on warm summer days. In addition, garbage-pickers are likely to fling it back onto the street in an uncontrolled manner. Of course, I don't know if the green waste end-user approved of my use of the street piles for this purpose, but I definitely needed the service, as do many others today who own and walk dogs.

Sacramento's venerable green waste street-disposal system makes me feel like I am getting something worthwhile for my utility bill! Contrary to what the Sacramento Bee says, it is not antiquated to support what works best in a city filthy with trees. Abandon The Claw, and peasants like me will revolt! Do not repeal, but support "Measure A"!

Ball Of Confusion

Last night, I had the joyful experience of listening to a portion of George Noory's Coast-to-Coast AM radio show. George's guest was Tim Ball, well-known climate change skeptic:

In the latter half of the program, environmental consultant Tim Ball discussed 'Climate Gate,' a coordinated effort to hide information about global warming. Someone hacked in to the files of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) based at the University of East Anglia and found damaging emails that show that scientists at the Unit created and manipulated false data to preserve the idea that global warming is real.

Since 2002, global temperatures have been declining, and numbers from the past have been pushed down to make the current temps seem warmer, he argued. We're seeing climate change ideas, often based on overly simplistic computer models, used as a vehicle for political purposes, he added.

Unsurprisingly, Ball made mistakes on the radio show, and, of course, George Noory was too enthralled by his guest to even notice the mistakes. For example, Ball mocked climate scientists for maintaining that one of the effects of global warming would be drought. Didn't the scientists understand that a warmer Earth would lead to more water vapor in the atmosphere, and thus more precipitation?

Of course, if it was that simple, hot and humid places like the Persian Gulf would be rainy places too, but, of course, they are not. Rainfall requires mechanisms that lift and cool air, and in the mid-latitude regions of the Earth, where Rossby waves are active, those mechanisms require a temperature gradient between the pole and the equator. Since global warming is forecast to be greatest at the poles, the effect will be to diminish that temperature gradient, which will shut down rainfall mechanisms, and lead to - drought. It hardly matters how humid it is; if it doesn't rain, the farmer suffers.

Ball also seems unaware of recent and continuing advances in modeling the presence of clouds in climate models. His accusations would carry more weight if he bothered reading the literature.

Nevertheless, the CRU E-Mail hack causes problems for the climatological community. Nothing distracts like scandal, and as long as the slimy fossil-fuel community can pretend that a real scandal has occurred, then they can change the subject from the data and take the initiative.

Everyone is getting involved in this. Even my brother-in-law E-Mailed me:

So, Mr. scientist, what do you think about the CRU?

Huh?

Climate Research Unit.

I replied:

I have no problem with the CRU. Compared to their enemies, they are pure as driven snow.

Nevertheless, the CRU appears to be mishandling their public relations problem. Here is an interesting skeptical opinion piece by Mr. Monbiot on the matter, which Mr. Ball found favor with:

It is true that much of what has been revealed could be explained as the usual cut and thrust of the peer review process, exacerbated by the extraordinary pressure the scientists were facing from a denial industry determined to crush them. One of the most damaging emails was sent by the head of the climatic research unit, Phil Jones. He wrote "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"

One of these papers which was published in the journal Climate Research turned out to be so badly flawed that the scandal resulted in the resignation of the editor-in-chief. Jones knew that any incorrect papers by sceptical scientists would be picked up and amplified by climate change deniers funded by the fossil fuel industry, who often – as I documented in my book Heat – use all sorts of dirty tricks to advance their cause.

Even so, his message looks awful. It gives the impression of confirming a potent meme circulated by those who campaign against taking action on climate change: that the IPCC process is biased. However good the detailed explanations may be, most people aren't going to follow or understand them. Jones's statement, on the other hand, is stark and easy to grasp.

In this case you could argue that technically he has done nothing wrong. But a fat lot of good that will do. Think of the MPs' expenses scandal: complaints about stolen data, denials and huffy responses achieved nothing at all. Most of the MPs could demonstrate that technically they were innocent: their expenses had been approved by the Commons office. It didn't change public perceptions one jot. The only responses that have helped to restore public trust in Parliament are humility, openness and promises of reform.

...Some people say that I am romanticising science, that it is never as open and honest as the Popperian ideal. Perhaps. But I know that opaqueness and secrecy are the enemies of science. There is a word for the apparent repeated attempts to prevent disclosure revealed in these emails: unscientific.

...The handling of this crisis suggests that nothing has been learnt by climate scientists in this country from 20 years of assaults on their discipline. They appear to have no idea what they're up against or how to confront it. Their opponents might be scumbags, but their media strategy is exemplary.

The greatest tragedy here is that despite many years of outright fabrication, fraud and deceit on the part of the climate change denial industry, documented in James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore's brilliant new book Climate Cover-up, it is now the climate scientists who look bad. By comparison to his opponents, Phil Jones is pure as the driven snow. Hoggan and Littlemore have shown how fossil fuel industries have employed "experts" to lie, cheat and manipulate on their behalf. The revelations in their book (as well as in Heat and in Ross Gelbspan's book The Heat Is On) are 100 times graver than anything contained in these emails.

But the deniers' campaign of lies, grotesque as it is, does not justify secrecy and suppression on the part of climate scientists. Far from it: it means that they must distinguish themselves from their opponents in every way.

Climatologists are fighting a well-funded enemy that never sleeps. I'm afraid Mr. Monbiot wants to hold climatologists to a standard that neither they, nor anyone else, can reach without neutering themselves.

It's nice to be pure, but I'd rather win than be pure. No, it's time to bury the bodies and move on. It's time to take the offensive, for a change.

Auckland Photo Feature

Here's a nice picture feature on Auckland, NZ. The subject is ostensibly New Zealand wineries, but it looks like they barely left town, with just a visit to Waiheke Island, a place that is ostensibly a "home to artists and other bohemians" but in reality is too expensive for most of those folks.

Nevertheless, the pictures are nice!

A Walk Down A Country Lane

After dinner, several of us took a walk down a country lane on the western outskirts of Guinda.

Almost immediately, we startled a cat hiding in the grass, which promptly turned tail and fled. Despite its small size, only slightly-bigger than a regular housecat, the cat's robust physique and distinctive ears left no doubt: it was a bobcat! I've never seen a bobcat in the wild before!


Lynn was greatly surprised to discover that this little creek was dry. In all his years, he had never seen the creek dry before.

Well, excepting that one storm in mid-October, it HAS been pretty dry lately!

There were some great bucolic views of the Coast Range on this walk. We saw and heard lots of western meadowlarks and scrub jays. In the distance, we saw four or five peacocks. We could also hear geese on distant farms. Small birds (gnatcatchers? kinglets?) also fluttered about.

Beautiful oaks! California has some gorgeous country!

Imogene has this beautiful tree (a maple?) in her back yard.

Thanksgiving 2009

Like last year, Sally and I headed into northwest Yolo County's Capay Valley to eat Thanksgiving dinner with her friend Imogene, and her family.

Sally knew the way, so she drove....

No! Stop!

What do you mean this isn't that kind of trip?

Uh, I need to stop for a smoke!

Yes, I know I don't smoke....






Which just brings to mind Gary Larson's cartoon....



Good things come to those who wait. Here, on the outskirts of Guinda, an inviting country lane leads to Imogene's house, and Thanksgiving dinner!

The Cactus Hours

The Cactus Hours:

Nocturnes----Lauds-----Terce
Prime----Vespers---Compline
Matins--------Sext---------Vigils

Pearls Before Swine

Well, not all pearls before all swine. Just one particular pearl before one particular swine.

I just bought an i-Phone....

Upgrading The Technology

I bought a fancy new DVD writer to go with the fancy new camcorder. Last night, I burned my first DVD (Sally's Nov. 2nd Japanese Folk Dancing class).

It hurts to learn new stuff.....

And "Courage" Was His Name

I remember 2006, when I was in Australia for Thanksgiving, and several of us there heard over the radio that President Bush had pardoned that year's Thanksgiving turkey so it could live out its retirement days at Disney World.

The Australians thought that was just too surreal.

It's no less surreal this year.....

Bridge to Nowhere

Up in Alaska, Sarah Palin was trying to find a use for her "Bridge to Nowhere", and she heard that San Francisco was having a particularly-pernicious bridge problem, so she thought she'd help out.

(This is fun - I shoulda been a conservative!)

We Want - Information!

What's happening in the UK is bound to be happening here soon as well:

Police are routinely arresting people simply to record their DNA profiles on the national database, according to a report published today.

It also states that three quarters of young black men are on the database. The finding risks stigmatising a whole section of society, the equality watchdog has warned.

The revelations will fuel the debate about the DNA database, the world’s largest. They are included in a report by the Human Genetics Commission, an independent government advisory body. It criticises the piecemeal development of the database and questions how effective it is in helping the police to investigate and solve crimes.

Jonathan Montgomery, commission chairman, said that “function creep” over the years had transformed a database of offenders into one of suspects. Almost one million innocent people are now on the DNA database.

Professor Montgomery said: “It’s now become pretty much routine to take DNA samples on arrest, so large numbers of people on the DNA database will be there not because they have been convicted, but because they’ve been arrested.”

Recorded crime has fallen every year since 2004-05, but the number of people arrested in England and Wales annually is rising. Latest figures show that arrests rose by 6 per cent to 1.43 million in 2005 and a further 4 per cent to 1.48 million in 2006-07.

Professor Montgomery said there was some evidence that people were arrested to retain the DNA information even though they might not have been arrested in other circumstance.

He said that a retired senior police officer told the commission: “It is now the norm to arrest offenders for everything if there is a power to do so. It is apparently understood by serving police officers that one of the reasons . . . is so that DNA can be obtained.” He said that the tradition of only arresting someone when dealing with serious offences had collapsed.

Possible AZ Rains

In line with the speculative El Niño post from yesterday, here is some optimistic news: possible AZ rains are being forecast by the computer models, associated with a cutoff low passing near or through the area.

Cutoff lows are among the most difficult features for computer models to get right. Lack of adequate data constrains proper forecasts. Cutoff lows can generate lots of rain, or no rain at all, depending on the timing and location of their moves.

The GFS model forecasts a weak AZ storm over the weekend. The NOGAPS model forecasts a much stronger storm, on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

AZ is so dry right now: let’s hope for the bigger storm!

With Shoppers Like Me....

Who needs a recession? People like me will be the death of the economy yet. I know I've already bought most of my loot for the year and will spend very little at the stores this holiday season:

US retailers are taking desperate measures to spark holiday sales in the face of what promises to be another troubled year-end shopping season.

Merchants are furiously working to ramp up consumer interest ahead of "Black Friday," on November 27, the day after the Thanksgiving Day holiday that marks the traditional kickoff of the holiday gift season.

Some are promising price cuts of 50 percent or more on some hot electronics, and planning for big events to bring out shoppers for big sales promotions.

Analysts say retailers are struggling to find the right balance of inventories and discounts while cautious consumers are hesitating about how much and when to buy.

Clothing retailer Gap has started early with 25 percent discounts, while Wal-Mart and Target are offering online shoppers free or discounted shipping on many items. JC Penney is boosting Black Friday promotions and will open its doors at 4 am for the best deals.

Steven Dennis, executive-in-residence at Southern Methodist University's JC Penney Center for Retail Excellence, said price cuts may be deep but are not as broad as some might expect.

"I think most retailers are desperate for market share," he said. "Everyone seems to have the view that business is gong to be flat and it is a battle for market share."

But Dennis said retailers are not in the dire position of last year, when they had large amounts of inventory. So price cuts will mainly be on a few high-profile items to get consumers into the store "and hope they get a disproportionate share of their spending."

...Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, said she sees overall holiday retail sales growing 1.6 percent from last year, but that this will essentially be flat when adjusted for inflation.

"The quality of spending this holiday season will still be dismal, however, when compared to Christmases past," she said.

..."In an effort to reduce discounting, retailers have cut inventories to well below year-ago levels and are expected to keep them low through the holiday season. If merchants have underestimated demand, they could end up with bare shelves, losing sales."

...A survey by Visa USA found consumers plan on spending 161 dollars less on holiday shopping than last year and 368 dollars less than they planned two years ago.

In one sign of the times, several retailers have brought back the layaway plan, which enables customers to put down a deposit to hold merchandise until the full amount can be paid. Sears, Kmart and Toys R US are among those offering the plan, and a new online version of the program is offered through eLayaway.com.

One reason for this is that consumers are stretched and may have less access to credit.

With Friends Like This.....

Lou Dobbs moves with all the subtlety of an armored assault vehicle approaching trenches:

In an interview with the Spanish-language network Telemundo gaining attention Wednesday, Dobbs told interviewer Maria Celeste he is one of the Latino community's "greatest friends" and appeared willing to embrace a form of amnesty he spent years criticizing.

...Dobbs also brushed aside suggestions he is the "No. 1 enemy" of the Latino community, saying that image is a result of propaganda "efforts of the far left."

"Whatever you have thought of me in the past," Dobbs said, "I can tell you right now that I am one of your greatest friends and I mean for us to work together. I hope that will begin with Maria and me and Telemundo and other media organizations and others in this national debate that we should turn into a solution rather than a continuing debate and factional contest."

The comments come as Dobbs has fueled speculation the former anchorman may have his eye on politics as a second act, either in 2012 as a presidential candidate or as a challenger to New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, the only Hispanic in the Senate.

...Meanwhile, Robert Dilenschneider, a spokesman for Dobbs, told the New York Times Tuesday the former anchorman may take the "intermediary step" of challenging Menendez.

Impatient Clerks

The clerks at a Midtown AM/PM seemed impatient and a touch irritable when I saw them last night. The police were a little slow in responding to their call.

Last week, a strange man had entered the store, choked a customer, threw coffee around the premises, and knocked over store displays in some kind of berserk rage. Minutes before I got there the clerks had seen this strange man again, lurking outside and looking for an opportunity to re-enter the store.

Convenience store clerks always have to be on their toes when it comes to their clientele.

Whiter Shade Of Pale

It was rather magical last night, strolling past the new outdoor ice rink at 20th & J Streets after the sun had set. They have lights that appear to drip cool fluorescent fire from the trees aloft, and they were playing "Whiter Shade Of Pale", and it all seemed rather mystical and haunted.

Greenberg Trailer

Here we go! After becoming well-known amongst fans of Mumblecore Indie films, this is Greta Gerwig's big-time audience breakout movie! Co-star with Ben Stiller! Not bad for the St. Francis alum and once-upon-a-time Woodland Opera House actress!

The Seafarers

The Seafarers - Sea of Love from Eighty Four Films on Vimeo.

I like the message: Even in failure, there is success!

Solid Potato Salad - Ross Sisters

Wow, this is just amazing! The full number is also available on YouTube at lower quality.

In Regards To The Sudden Appearance Of Hacked Climatologist E-Mail Messages

All I have to say in regards to hacked E-Mail messages popping up and surprising climatologists who wrote them long ago is that I think it would be interesting to compare their messages with climate-change skeptic E-Mail messages over the same period. Let's lay ALL the cards on the table and see who is playing fair, and who is playing foul, with the data!

Food, Glorious Food

Of course, Julia Child never had to work with acetylene:

Saturn's frigid moon Titan may be friendlier to life than previously thought. New calculations suggest Titan's hydrocarbon lakes are loaded with acetylene, a chemical some scientists say could serve as food for cold-resistant organisms.

...An estimate made in 1989 suggested bodies of liquid hydrocarbons on Titan would contain a few parts in 10,000 of acetylene.

...Data from the Cassini spacecraft and the Huygens probe, which parachuted to Titan's surface in 2005, helped Cordier's team re-calculate the lakes' likely composition. ... The team found that acetylene would be hundreds of times as abundant as the previous estimate, making up one part in 100 of the lake's content.

"Having about a per cent of acetylene is potentially interesting from the life point of view," says team member Jonathan Lunine of the University of Arizona in Tucson. The idea of acetylene-eating organisms on Titan is "highly speculative" but intriguing, he says.

...Tokano pointed out in a recent study that without mixing, hydrogen and acetylene would stay in separate layers of the lakes, limiting reactions between them that might otherwise power exotic organisms.

Dancing With The Stars

I'd Buy That For A Dollar!

If I had a dollar, so to speak! That's quite cheap, even as an initial bid!:

Financier Carl Icahn has offered $156.5 million to acquire the partially built Fontainebleau Las Vegas resort, which has been stalled in bankruptcy court since June, according to the resort's chief operating officer.

At a bankruptcy court hearing today in Miami, Icahn bid $105 million plus $51.4 million of debtor-in-possession financing, said COO Howard Karawan.

Penn, which said last week it had offered $50 million plus $51.5 million of DIP financing for the Fontainebleau, dropped out after raising its bid to $145 million, said Penn spokesman Joe Jaffoni.

Both bids are dwarfed by the $2 billion that has already been spent on the 3,800-room casino resort, which sits toward the northern end of the Las Vegas Strip. The property is slated to go to auction in January.

Icahn, whose bid would likely represent a "stalking horse" floor for the auction, was not immediately available for comment.

"Initially, nobody wanted to play the stalking horse ... the bid has now doubled," Karawan said. "We still have 60 days to run before the auction."

He said Fontainebleau's representatives have had meetings with more than 40 other interested parties.

Penn National, which owns casinos and racetracks throughout the United States, but not in the gambling centers of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, has estimated it will take at least another $1.5 billion to complete the Fontainebleau resort, which is about 70 percent finished and partly exposed to the elements.

Penn's decision to drop out of the initial bidding is in line with the company's previous expressions of reluctance to overspend in a market still reeling from the impact of the global economic recession.

"While many scenarios could still play out, today's action underscores Penn's financial discipline," Barclays Capital said in a research note.

Icahn acquired the Strip's Stratosphere hotel and casino out of bankruptcy in 1998, but sold that property in 2007, along with three smaller casinos, to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) for $1.3 billion

Early Decision

The Brits knew. The neocons decided to attack Iraq before Bush assumed office. September 11th was their "Reichstag Fire", their ready-made excuse to proceed:

The chairman of the British Joint Intelligence Committee in 2001 told investigators Monday that elements of the Bush Administration were pushing for regime change in Iraq in early 2001, months before the 9/11 attacks and two years before President George W. Bush formally announced the Iraq war.

Sir Peter Ricketts, now-Secretary at the Foreign Office, said that US and British officials believed at the time that measures against Iraq were failing: "sanctions, an incentive to lift sanctions if Saddam allowed the United Weapons inspectors to return, and the 'no fly' zones over the north and south of the country."

Ricketts also said that US officials had raised the prospect of regime change in Iraq, asserting that the British weren't supportive of the idea at the time.

"We were conscious that there were other voices in Washington, some of whom were talking about regime change," Ricketts said.

The head of the British Foreign Office's Middle East department, Sir William Patey, told the inquiry that his office was aware of regime change talk from some parts of the Bush Administration shortly after they took office in 2001.

"In February 2001 we were aware of these drum beats from Washington and internally we discussed it," Patey said. "Our policy was to stay away from that."

"We didn't think Saddam was a good thing, and it would be great if he went, but we didn't have an explicit policy for trying to get rid of him," he added.

...Interestingly, the head of Britain's Intelligence Committee told investigators that then-Secretary of State Colin Powell appeared to be in charge of US policy on Iraq until the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"Up till then we felt that dealing with the State Department, we were dealing with the people who were forming the policy," Ricketts said.

British investigators are probing how Britain got into the Iraq war and if officials misled the public. Already, a leaked report has shown that then-Prime Minister Tony Blair covered up British military plans for a full Iraq invasion throughout 2002, claiming at the time that Britain's objective was "disarmament, not regime change."

According to Britain's Sunday Telegraph, the leaked report condemns the almost complete absence of contingency planning as a potential breach of Geneva Convention obligations to safeguard civilians. Coalition forces were “ill-prepared and equipped to deal with the problems in the first 100 days” of the occupation.

Drought Optimism

Drought in the Colorado River Basin is quite bad now.
Nevertheless, the long-range forecast is good for California and the Southwest.

All hail El Niño, merciful God of the Pacific! I must find a chicken to sacrifice, or, failing that, perhaps a squirrel, or something!

Sodium Distortion

I've been paging through photos of 2009 Speed Week at the Bonneville Salt Flats looking for a needle in a haystack - pictures of that Aussie fellow I encountered at the Tonopah gas station this summer. No luck, but some of the photos are beautiful and interesting.

I agree with Bob - this is a good name!

Pantokrator

Via espvisuals:

This church in Colombia, named Pantokrator which is Greek for 'all powerful', is designed for devotees who want to express themselves through heavy metal.

Empathy Fail - Explaining To Teabaggers Why Health Care Reform Is Necessary

El Niño, Down Under

So how has El Niño been doing in Australia this year?

Over the last year, a NW-SE dry stripe is evident. The pattern is broadly similar to past El Niños, but still different enough - what's that wet stripe across the north? - to excite interest.

Physics Humor

At Barnes & Noble

It seemed like a trip to the book store was in order. I was reading in the Wilson Quarterly about a new book by Carol Berkin called "Civil War Wives: The Lives and Times Of Angelina Grimke Weld, Varina Howell Davis, and Julia Dent Grant". Varina Howell Davis interested me most: she was Jefferson Davis' second wife, and I misremembered that I was related to her.

Reviewing my genealogy, it turns out I'm related primarily to Jefferson Davis, not his wives, via his Bradford connection to Pennsylvania Senator Richard Brodhead, Jr. (the Confederate President and the Northern Copperhead were cousins). So, the book might have some antiquarian interest to myself, but, as it turns out, it didn't matter: I couldn't find this brand-new book on the shelves anyway.

Instead, I was drawn to another book, "God Is Red" by Vine Deloria, Jr. He is a well-known Sioux author and scholar, who wrote "Custer Died For Your Sins". Plus, for a time in my teen years, he was my next-door neighbor. I remember the day we were startled by a circle of Indians drumming away behind his house - headdresses and everything! Very un-Pueblo-like. I also remember another day when his parents came over unannounced, for a visit (we were all dressed in our pajamas on that lackadaisical Saturday noontime and were startled by the happy elderly couple peering into our windows and waving hello).

We never knew Mr. Deloria well, and actually knew his daughter, cat, and dog (Ma-Eh) better. And riffling through his books, I could see he has written learnedly about all manner of subjects, but never, it seems, about his wacky neighbors back in the day. So, instead, I purchased "Blood And Thunder" by Hampton Sides, a book about Kit Carson and the Navajos, a subject which remains pertinent to this day in New Mexico.

Plus, I picked up Carrie Fisher's "Wishful Drinking", which just looked like fun reading.



Just 'cause I like the image.....

DMTC's "Annie, Jr."

Saw the YPT show as well this weekend. I didn't have my camera, however. That will have to wait.

Great performances, particularly by McKinley C. (Miss Hannigan), Chris P. (Daddy Warbucks), Turner P. (Rooster Hannigan), and in particular, by Kelly R. (Lily St. Regis). I've never seen anyone get the peroxide blonde character better than Kelly did (and she's only 11!) The orphan corps was strong too, as was Emma K. as Annie.

At one point in the show, my seat began shaking. I thought a prolonged earthquake had devastated the Bay Area, or perhaps an endless train derailment was underway several hundred yards away, but it turned out that a young woman behind me suffering Restless Leg Syndrome had propped her feet on the seat back. She apologized, but then said that I must agree that the vibration was soothing. After considering her argument, I agreed, and enjoyed the Vibra-Seat that had unexpectedly been installed at DMTC.

The Farmers

Image from maiden

DMTC's "Carousel"

Finally saw the entire show on Sunday. I liked most everyone's performance. I had some issues with the ballet - in part due to execution and in part due to conception - but, like I say, I liked most everyone's performance.

Alerted by a flash that came from somewhere (never tracked that location down), in the second act, I ended up chastising an over-enthusiastic patron for using her camera during the performance. She tried to weasel out by claiming she wasn't using a flash, and indeed, the announcement at the start of the show banned 'flash photography', but in general, our contracts ban photography, period, so I remained stern with her. It was ironic that I should be doing this, since as theater history person and blogger, I am the most egregious violator of the rule around, so perhaps it is just that I also now police the rule, but I sure felt the weight of hypocrisy.

Scourge Of The Schoolies

VIDEO: Police will be tough on drunk schoolies

Let the annual riot begin.....

Ida Corr - "I Want You"

Sarah Palin Book-Signing

Well, this is somewhat unfair - like shooting fish in a barrel - but mildly-amusing nonetheless.

People are remarkably fuzzy about their political thoughts - always have been - and especially so when interviewed on camera. Kind of sad, really, and an indictment of our educational system.

But at the same time, it shows what a happy place America really is. Misery is the best education. Money can't buy the equivalent of the experience of having a car door slammed on your fingers, day after day, for years.

The highest-grade of political education I ever saw in any group of people, ever, was amongst Palestinian refugee university students. Razor-sharp intelligent, they are, and they can slam your lame political arguments into the ground in seconds flat. But I wouldn't want to be in their shoes....

Mazes

E.: What's that?

M.: It's a sudoku puzzle. I started doing them in the summer when my sister Marra showed them to me.

E. Are they hard?

M.: They're hard, but Marra says they're easy - it's just that men are retarded and can't see the pattern.

E.: They look like mazes. Do you remember that movie, "The Shining"? It starred Jack Nicholson. He was a writer and he took his family to stay through the winter trapped in a hotel in the mountains of Colorado so he could focus. It was so spooky! The wife, she saw the word "Redrum" spelled out...

M.: Murder....

E.: Murder! Yes, and one day, a ball rolled out of a room in the big hotel and the little boy, he started looking for where the ball came from and he met two little girls who wanted to play. But MMMAAAARRRCCC! They were ghosts! Because the fellow before who was in the hotel, he killed his own family! And Jack Nicholson, he started going insane, and the butler returns because they hadn't called him on the radio and Jack Nicholson kills him! And he's going to kill the little boy too, but the boy is smart and he runs into this maze in the snow, and makes tracks that go the wrong way and Jack Nicholson gets lost and he freezes in the maze!

M.: Spooky!

E.: Spooky! MMMMAAARRRCCC! There was a little girl who died at the school last summer, when it wasn't in session, but they never told anyone how she died, or who did it, or nothing.....

M.: Maybe one day, you'll go to the clinic, and there will be a little girl there who you don't recognize, and .....

E.: MMMMAAAARRRRCCCC!

M.: AAAAHHHHH!

E.: AAAAAHHHHHH!

The Grates - "Aw Yeah"

Damn! The folks from Brissie know what they're doing with their on-location shooting! I freakin' knew this had to be Byron Bay!:

Oh, it was fun, we filmed it in Byron Bay, one of the most beautiful locations in Australia, on a Sunday afternoon. We just always felt like the song was a march for misfits so when we started discussing film clip ideas, filming some kind of a march was at the forefront. We didn’t want it to be The Black parade, obviously, but we also didn’t want it to be a Christian Parade. We got in touch with this tiny but hard working company called Krozm. It was their stroke of genius that helped it become a 'neo-day of the dead' celebration march, me towards my own death, with all of our friends as characters we picked up along the way. That is collectively our favourite film clip.

........

Aw yeah!
Blood is thick and piss is thin, I'm full of one but I'm not sure which.
Aw yeah!
Cast my line and pulled up teeth, sound violins, I wanted a ship.
Aw yeah!
Called the rain and asked her when? She's found love never see her again.
(Love won't last, crying again)
Aw yeah!

People trying to remember how did it go? People trying to forget, and what do you know?
People lost their lust for life, I'm a happening fan. Let's fix our beds together.

Aw yeah!

Lost my feet but I still run, my hands wear my shoes and my face is my butt.
Aw yeah!
Hounds dogs, blood hounds, outta control, a hot dog's soft but it's still got bones.
Aw yeah!
Well I spit on my grave when I sleep with the twins, one's for loving, one eats my sins.
Aw yeah!

People trying to remember, how did it go? People trying to forget, and what do you know?
Time and time I seen the light but I wanna explore. Don't wanna lie in pastures.

I said hey! I got one foot in the grave, yeah one foot in the grave.

Just 'Cause I Like The Image

Finally Getting Around To Chappaquiddick

Jetta said: "You've got to read about Chappaquiddick; I mean you've GOT to read about Chappaquiddick! You won't believe about Chappaquiddick! You've got to read about it NOW! NOW! Right NOW!"

Sigh. It's been forty years since Mary Jo Kopechne's death. Since good ol' Uncle Ted took the last ferry outta Martha's Vineyard, it hardly seems pertinent anymore. And why would Jetta, whose politics are somewhere Left of Michael Moore's, even care about the case, given all the more recent meaty fare provided by the Bushes? But everyone loves to hate the Kennedys, no matter what their political persuasion. So, what the hell.....

The book Jetta was referring to was "Death at Chappaquiddick" by Richard L. and Thomas L. Tedrow. The book reads like an illegitimate 1970's offspring of the RNC and Jack Anderson's investigative journalism boiler room. It contains occasional contradictions, and sentences like: "After viewing the scene there is no question but that we were right." No doubts there, no sirree! Nothing like a scientist would write: "on the one hand; but on the other hand." Just the facts, and a whole lot of speculation, presented wide-eyed and without doubts.

To me, the simpler the story, the more credible. It doesn't help that the instant Ted Kennedy got out of the car he started to embroider his story and that everyone started embroidering the story too. There was lots of speculation regarding his movements, and whether or not he and Mary Jo were having sex, or whether there was a proper autopsy, or not. It just confuses matters. Simpler answers; closer to truth!

To me, it appears that, very late at night, Ted and Mary Jo were trying to get to the beach. They had both been to the beach and across the bridge several times earlier that day, but critically, they had both been driven across the bridge, and neither one had tried to drive across the bridge themselves. Ted was likely driving, and too fast, and in a sleepy or drunken state, across a narrow wooden bridge without guardrails that angled left. He either rolled the car, or it sailed into Poucha Pond (depending on speed).

Since the car rolled right, Mary Jo was unable to escape immediately. She found an air pocket and survived, perhaps for several hours, before suffocating. She was never able to either locate an exit, or couldn't force one.

Meanwhile, Teddy panicked. I don't believe he tried to rescue her, and probably gave up hope immediately. He didn't try to rouse people living nearby (strangers of unknown loyalties). Instead, he walked a couple of miles back to gather his lieutenants and try to figure out what to do. (The impulse of politicians to first figure out a story and then alert the public is very, very strong. For example, when Dick Cheney shot his friend on Feb. 11, 2006, he too felt the irresistible urge to circle the wagons first).

So, in the ensuing hullabaloo, what was the key factor? Massachusetts law regarding involuntary manslaughter states:

As with voluntary manslaughter Massachusetts statutory law does not define involuntary manslaughter. Rather, Massachusetts common law, as pronounced by the courts, provides the definition for involuntary manslaughter:

One can commit involuntary manslaughter through:

(1) an unintentional killing occasioned by an act which constitutes such a disregard of the probable harmful consequences to another as to be wanton or reckless; or
(2) an unintentional killing resulting from a battery.

The first theory under which a person may face conviction for involuntary manslaughter requires an unintentional, yet unlawful killing resulting from the wanton or reckless conduct of the defendant. This theory of involuntary manslaughter is sometimes called "Welansky manslaughter," after the 1944 case in which the owner of a nightclub was convicted of involuntary manslaughter when a fire in his club caused the death of over 400 patrons. That case also established that wanton or reckless conduct includes both affirmative acts and failures to act where a duty to act exists. Such acts or omissions must embody a disregard for the probable harmful consequences to another. The conduct must involve a high degree of likelihood that substantial harm will result to another. The law requires that the defendant have knowledge of the circumstances and the intent to do the act that caused the death, and also requires that the circumstances presented a danger of serious harm such that a reasonable man would have recognized the nature and degree of danger. Wanton and reckless conduct is distinct from negligence or gross negligence for which, in the common law of Massachusetts, there is no criminal liability.

The second theory on which a defendant may face conviction for involuntary manslaughter requires that the defendant commit a battery, not amounting to a felony, which causes death. A person who uses a level of force against another that is likely to cause harm and which produces death is guilty of involuntary manslaughter. The law requires that the prosecution establish that the defendant knew, or should have known that his conduct created a high degree of likelihood that substantial harm would result to another. This means that the same standards of proof apply to both voluntary and involuntary manslaughter.

The punishment for both voluntary and involuntary manslaughter, as set by statute, is the same. The maximum sentence for an involuntary manslaughter conviction is imprisonment for twenty years, except in circumstances where the voluntary manslaughter involves explosives or infernal machines, in which cases the maximum punishment is life imprisonment.

Now, as asinine as it was not to have mounted an effective rescue effort, Teddy Kennedy probably could not have been convicted of involuntary manslaughter because of that. A strong rescue effort could have jeopardized his own life in the murky darkness. He may not have even realized that she could have survived a long time, trapped in the car.

But involuntary manslaughter (theory 1, above) because of driving too fast, or driving recklessly? Now people get convicted all the time because of that! So, the cover-up that followed was directed mostly, even single-mindedly, to ensuring that no testimony regarding the car's speed, or reckless driving, was ever entered into the official record. Because that path led directly to jail.

As it was, Ted's path was hellacious enough. In the ensuing tempest, his wife Joan suffered a miscarriage. Lots of suffering for everyone involved.

It's amazing, really, how much latitude the authorities will give to people who DO NOT rescue people under their care, particularly when those people have high standing in the community.

I remember when I was going to U of A in Tucson, a professor (whose name I can't quite recall), who had once been at Tucson but currently lived in Pennsylvania, returned to Tucson for a Christmas visit. He, his wife, and a grad student friend, went into the Galiuro Mountains for an overnight camping trip. Heavy rains soaked them all, and a winter chill descended. Soon, the professor was faced with the prospect of both the ill-clad grad student and his wife suffering hypothermia. He decided he could rescue only one, so he bundled his friend into a cave and walked out of the wilderness with his wife. The wife survived; the grad student died.

I never believed that the professor couldn't have made a stronger effort to save the grad student, but the authorities did. To me, it sounded like involuntary manslaughter, having failed to ensure that the party took reasonable precautions against bad weather. No matter. Case closed.

For your family's peace-of-mind, be careful regarding the social status of your companions before undertaking hazardous activities. Caveat inferior!

(Hey, I wonder if Andrew can get away from his professorial duties and wouldn't mind taking a glacier walk with me on a nice, warm day if I get back to NZ sometime soon? There are crevasses, and falling rocks, and all, I know, but.....)

Now, to talk Chappaquiddick over with Jetta and figure out her take on the 40-year-old matter....

Jargon Run Amock?

Jerry wonders:

"keystone megaherbivores" -- a good name for a band?

(Gill, et al., page 1100 of current issue of Science.)

That's real nice terminology, actually. You can almost see the elephant, or dinosaur, or mammoth chewing its way through a tree's canopy.

And far below, scrambling through the leaf litter, evanescent microcarnivores.

....

Jerry replies:

My definition:

Keystone megaherbivore: A large salad eater from Pennsylvania.

Two Cats. Make That Three.

Early this morning, two cats were walking all over my car, fighting mad, and asserting dominance over the driveway.

Yyyyeeeeoooowwww! Meeeeoooorrroooowww! Hiss! Slash!!!!!

Let's make this clear. It's MY driveway! Mine! Not yours: MINE!

Meeeeoooorrroooowww! Hiss!!!!!!

Bev On "Carousel"

Like many, Bev likes "Carousel", but is disturbed by the wife-beating theme. Which brings up the question: can wife-beating, artfully presented, make good entertainment?

Strangely enough, the comic Johnny Steele spoke on just this issue last night. He imagined Frank Sinatra as just your typical, limited New Jersey goombah, guiding guests through a photo gallery: "And here is a picture of me by the Jersey shore - smackin' a broad! And here I am by the waterfront - smackin' a broad!" Disturbing imagery, and yet funny at the same time.

Rodgers & Hammerstein were more subtle, and provided more entertainment value, but were no less dependent on the disturbing theme to create their art. No art without someone suffering, somewhere.

Old Ironsides 75th Anniversary - Moe Bettermann Reunion Show

Left to right: sidekick Matt Wolkis (?), Eric Lobo, and Moe Bettermann.

In the 90's, very late night Sacramento TV viewers could sometimes catch Mr. Lobo, Sacramento's answer to Elvira, introducing trashy sci-fi and horror films, at say, 3:05 a.m., on Channel 10.

Mr. Lobo remains active wherever a splash of gore indicates sci-fi and horror have collided in the Sacramento area.



Michael Rowe, who plays Stan the Man with Moe Bettermann, clued me in to the reunion of the Moe Bettermann Show.

The Moe Bettermann Show, a comedy/interview show modeled after The Tonight Show, ran at Old Ironsides (a bar across from Waffle Square, at 10th & S Streets) from 1992 through 1999, before disbanding so everyone could get married, have kids, and enjoy real lives for a change.

But life wasn't the same without the Moe Bettermann Show, so what better than a reunion show in celebration of the 75th Anniversary of Old Ironsides? (And if I'm not mistaken, the show is now revived, and will continue henceforth until people feel they need real lives again, which hopefully will be never).

In its eight years, The Moe Bettermann Show showcased many significant comics and became an important fixture in Sacramento's entertainment firmament. Indeed, I remember seeing it once before (in 1995, my girlfriend Katherine Arthur appeared on Moe Bettermann's 'Slice of Life' segment, promoting her 'Personality Poems' - poems tailored to the individual.)

I particularly liked the last Moe Bettermann Show Community Calendar entry: "Clowns For Frowns: On Sunday morning at Pancake Circus (21st & Broadway - just three blocks from my house), cartwheeling clowns will surprise jittery Vietnam Vets suffering PTSD by spraying seltzer water and popping balloons!"

Johnny Steele is one hella funny comic! In this picture, he notes that Mr. Kannellas (the bar owner) "will need his stove lights back soon".

He talked about presenting his vaulting childhood comic ambitions to his father: "'One day, I'll stand on a six-inch-tall stage and play to 14 people across from Waffle Square!' My father replied: 'You dreamer!'"

He talked about Pittsburg - California's cultural center; watching an introduction-to-vasectomy video over at Kaiser; Frank Sinatra responding to the Pope's admonitions for people in third-world countries to have more children - "It's Witchcraft! Come on, you crazy nut, come outta that hut, and grab some butt!"; and trying to update his material from the 1990's for the Moe Bettermann reunion: "My manager responded to my Ted Kaczynski jokes by saying 'can't we update the references?'; to which I replied 'but then it's not funny!'"

The one-armed character played here is T.T. Jenkins "America's Very First Crack Baby".
Sinitra (together here with her hubby) played "The Weather Lady".

Hall Of Mirrors

When you live in Las Vegas, New Mexico, you live - where, exactly?:

My quest to discover how 40 years have altered a movie version of America has stumbled on a pocket of America altered for a movie.

Hollywood gets out here a lot. Tom Mix shot some Westerns here. The Communists invaded it in Red Dawn. Billy Bob Thornton's been here a couple of times, once when he directed an adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's All the Pretty Horses and again when he starred in The Astronaut Farmer. It makes a fine stand-in for McCarthy's border country; the Coen Brothers were here for No Country for Old Men. But it's also a fine stand-in for small-town America, which I'm guessing is why Paul is using it. Later, I'll try to enter a cool-looking comic-book shop only to be told it's also part of a set.

...Movies have long idealized small-town life. Easy Rider is not one of those movies. It presents the "silent majority" that swept Nixon into office the year before as a bigoted and ultimately murderous bunch. (What is still just a threat of prejudice and violence in Las Vegas becomes a terrifying reality when the film reaches the Deep South.) This no doubt played well with the movie's counterculture audience, and it's not as if a cultural divide didn't exist in America at the time. But the movie's depiction of Las Vegas and, later, the South tars a whole swath of the country with a broad brush.

..."This used to be a hell of a country," Hanson tells his new friends after agreeing to join their trip to Mardis Gras. It's an oft-quoted line, one that makes Hanson sound more like the people he's leaving behind than the hippies he's joined. Would he really want to turn back the clock on the decade's political advances? Or has the end of that decade left him feeling hopeless? While cameras rolled on Easy Rider, both Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy died violently, the Vietnam War showed no signs of slowing, and domestic unrest mounted. It was enough to make anyone nostalgic for small-town comforts.

I spent much of my day in Las Vegas hanging out in a charming coffee shop where tattooed baristas served senior citizens playing board games. I left ready to pull up stakes and move there. It fit my movie-shaped ideal of what a small town was supposed to look like: the pleasant, tree-lined town square, smiling locals, a burger joint not associated with clowns or kings, a corner drug store complete with a soda fountain. The town surely has the same problems found across America, but they were nowhere to be seen during my visit. Of course, Las Vegas has an incentive to appear idyllic. If it appears otherwise, filmmakers will need to look elsewhere to find small-town imagery to idealize or subvert in their films. I ended up unsure whether I'd really seen Las Vegas at all, or just some Hollywood idea of small-town authenticity. After admiring a cowgirl painted on the side of a building announcing I'd arrived where "the Great Plains meet the mighty Rockies," I noticed it welcomed me to a town called "Calumet"—Las Vegas' name in Red Dawn. I could live here, but where would I really be?

Extraordinary Polling Result

I am reminded of that apocryphal story (probably true) about the Manhattan liberal who said he couldn't believe that Nixon got re-elected, when he didn't know anyone who voted for him. Or the black activist from Oakland who (having never been to places like lily-white Idaho) seemed bewildered by the clout of white people.

When you are insulated from the national mainstream, you can confuse your surroundings with the national mainstream.

This poll suggests that the majority of Republicans are similarly insulated. To think that tiny rinky-dink ACORN has all this clout shows an utter lack of comprehension of basic realities:

The new national poll from Public Policy Polling (D) has an astonishing number about paranoia among the GOP base: Republicans do not think President Obama actually won the 2008 election -- instead, ACORN stole it.

This number goes a long way towards explaining the anger of the Tea Party crowd. They not only think Obama's agenda is against America, but they don't think he was actually the choice of the American people at all! Interestingly, NY-23 Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is now accusing ACORN of stealing his race, and Fox News personalities have often speculated about ACORN stealing the 2008 Minnesota Senate race for Al Franken.

The poll asked this question: "Do you think that Barack Obama legitimately won the Presidential election last year, or do you think that ACORN stole it for him?" The overall top-line is legitimately won 62%, ACORN stole it 26%.

Among Republicans, however, only 27% say Obama actually won the race, with 52% -- an outright majority -- saying that ACORN stole it, and 21% are undecided. Among McCain voters, the breakdown is 31%-49%-20%. By comparison, independents weigh in at 72%-18%-10%, and Democrats are 86%-9%-4%.

Now, the obvious comparison would be that many Democrats felt that George W. Bush didn't legitimately win the 2000 election. But there are some clear differences.

First of all, Al Gore empirically won the national popular vote in 2000, and lost in a disputed recount process in Florida. By comparison, John McCain lost the national popular vote by a 53%-46% margin.

In order to believe that Obama wasn't the true winner of the 2008 election, one would have to think that ACORN (and perhaps other groups) stuffed ballots to the tune of over 9.5 million votes, Obama's national margin.

PPP communications director Tom Jensen says: "Belief in the ACORN conspiracy theory is even higher among GOP partisans than the birther one, which only 42% of Republicans expressed agreement with on our national survey in September."

I Want A Stock Market Like My Great-Grandpa Used To Know

And it looks like we've got one too.

I disagree with Robert Reich: the economy CAN recover without consumers. But still, in this new world, it will truly suck to be a consumer, especially a consumer that remembers what nice places shopping malls used to be and how a trip to Salvation Army wasn't required to buy Christmas presents.

Several generations ago, consumers had a lot smaller piece of the economy than they do nowadays, so if we try to reverse-engineer the consumers out of the economy, it'll be just like it was in the good old days (just so long as I can keep running water - they can keep hot running water, just so long as I can keep some running water).

The stock market will go up and down based on other considerations than what fickle consumers are up to. The part of me that will rely on the 401K will be happy (and the part of me that requires a job in order to put money in the 401K will be sad).

No sir, we don't need no stinkin' consumers. They never did anything good but get into debt and go bankrupt anyway:

How can the stock market hit new highs at the same time unemployment is hitting new highs? Simple. The market is up because corporate earnings are up. Corporate earnings are up because companies are cutting costs. And the biggest single cost they’re cutting is their payrolls. So they let people go and, presto, their balance sheets look better and their stock prices rise.

In the old-fashioned kind of recession decades ago, big companies laid off people with the expectation of rehiring them when the economy turned up. Then a few recessions back, companies started laying off people for good, never rehiring them even when the economy recovered.

In the Great Recession of 2008-09, companies are going a step further. They’re using this sharp downturn to cut payrolls even below where they were when times were good. Outsourcing abroad, setting up shop in China and elsewhere, contracting out, replacing people with software and automated machines -- they're doing whatever it takes to get payrolls down so earnings bounce up.

Caterpillar earned $404 million in the third quarter, or 64 cents a share. Analysts had expected only 5 cents. Caterpillar’s stock is up 165 percent since March. How did Caterpillar do it? Not by selling more bulldozers. It did it by cutting more than 37,000 jobs.

The result, overall, is an asset-based recovery, not a Main Street recovery. Yes, the economy is growing again, but the surge in productivity is a mirage. Worker output per hour is skyrocketing because companies are generating almost as much output with fewer workers and fewer hours.

The Fed, meanwhile, has become an enabler to all this, making it as cheap as possible for companies to ax their employees. Money costs so little these days it’s easy to substitute capital for labor. It’s also easy to buy up foreign assets with cheap American money. And it’s now blissfully easy for Wall Street to borrow money almost free and buy all sorts of interests in foreign assets, especially commodities. That's why we're seeing the prices of foreign commodities and other assets go through the roof.

...The Fed and the Teasury have, in effect, placed a huge bet on a recovery driven by asset prices. That’s a bad bet. The great disconnect between the stock market and jobs is pushing stock prices way out of line with the real economy. This isn't sustainable.

No economy can recover without consumers. Yet American consumers, who constitute 70 percent of the U.S. economy, are facing mounting job losses as well as pay cuts. They’re in no mood to buy and won’t be for some time.

Where is this heading? No place good. Without a major shift in policy -- both at the Fed and in the White House -- the economics point to a big stock-market correction and a double dip.

The CBO Weighs In: The Senate's Opt-Out Health Reform Bill Is A Big Budget-Deficit Reducer, And Will Produce Fantastic Cost Savings

And how could it not? Our current system is so inefficient that it's easy to design something better.

So, let's roll:

The health care bill--which includes an opt-out public option--will require $849 billion over 10 years in new spending, to be paid for with cuts to Medicare, while reducing the deficit by $127 billion.

In that time it will extend coverage to 31 million Americans--94 percent of citizens will be covered by 2019.

Over the second 10 years, CBO projects even greater cost savings--up to $650 billion, with the caveat that after 10 years, their analyses become highly uncertain.

Trawling For Assassins

In 1994, Republicans spent a lot of time attacking the legitimacy of the federal government. In 1995, they got their avatar: child-murderer Timothy McVeigh.

If you constantly attack the legitimacy of an institution, or a person, you eventually get your John Brown. In fact, it's inevitable. You just need to hit the alert button hard enough for long enough, and someone will answer the advertisement. That is the purpose of FOX News, after all: a Craigslist for killers. And having done this once before, they can hardly be unaware of what they are doing now.

By constantly impugning President Obama's legitimacy, and hammering the point over and over, Republicans are openly calling for his assassination. To deny this is to deny a long history of how these things are done. The fingerprints are there for those who can read:

Not only have the Wall Street Journal and the hosts of Fox News been issuing their usual dark mutterings, but a new slogan has began appearing on bumper stickers, tshirts, and even teddy bears: "Pray for Obama: Psalm 109:8."

That psalm reads, “Let his days be few; and let another take his office. Let his children be fatherless, and his wife a widow."

Maddow seemed mainly amused by the teddy bears, but when she turned for comment to former right-wing evangelical leader Frank Schaeffer, he emphasized that in a religious context "it means something more threatening."

"The situation that I find genuinely frightening right now," Schaeffer explained, "is that you have a ramping up of biblical language ... and what it's coalescing into is branding Obama ... as 'not us.' ... Now he joins the ranks of the unjust kings of ancient Israel ... who should be slaughtered, if not by God then by just men."

"Really, this is trawling for assassins," continued Schaeffer, "and this is serious business. It's un-American, it's unpatriotic, and it goes to show that the religious right, the Republican far right, have coalesced into a group that truly want American revolution. ... They cannot be dismissed as just crazies on the fringe. ... This bumper sticker simply says to them, 'It's open season.'"

Appearing increasingly agitated, Schaeffer went on to say, "This is the American version of the Taliban. The Taliban quotes the Koran, and Al Qaeda quotes certain verses in the Koran, in or out of context, calling for jihad and bloody war and the curse of Allah on infidels. This is the Old Testament biblical equivalent of calling for holy war. ... And what surprises me is that responsible -- if you can put it that way -- Republican leadership, and the editors at some of these Christian magazines .... do not stand up in holy horror and denounce this."

"I would just say to them, 'Where the hell are you?'" Schaeffer concluded. "'This is not funny any more, and be it on your head if something happens to our president.' ... There are not many steps left on this insane path."

Impaled Ninja

Seattle ninja needs training regarding liquor:

A drunk man believing himself to be a ninja drew the help of Seattle police and aid crews late Monday after impaling himself on a First Hill fence post, a police spokesperson said.

The man's ninja skills, it seems, were bested by the 4- to 5-foot-tall fence he attempted to vault, according to the police statement. He ended up stuck on a spike atop the fence in the 600 block of Seventh Avenue.

After an officer in the area heard the man's screams and located him at about 11:15 p.m., Seattle Fire Department personnel were able to free the man. They took him to Harborview Medical Center, where officers attempted to ascertain exactly what the would-be silent assassin was up to.

"The male claimed he was not being chased, but rather he thought he was a ninja and would be able to successfully leap over the 4'-5' fence," the police spokesman said in a statement. "Clearly he was overconfident in his abilities, no doubt bolstered by alcohol."

Fireball Over Western U.S.

Oh, something happened last night:

FIREBALLS AND METEORS: As forecasters predicted, the Leonid meteor shower peaked during the late hours of Nov. 17th, favoring sky watchers in Asia with an outburst of 100+ meteors per hour. Just as the outburst was dying down, an even bigger event took place over the western USA. Something hit Earth's atmosphere and exploded with an energy equivalent of 0.5 to 1 kiloton of TNT. Witnesses in Colorado, Utah, Idaho and elsewhere say the fireball "turned night into day" and "shook the ground" when it exploded just after midnight Mountain Standard Time. Researchers who are analyzing infrasound recordings of the blast say the fireball was not a Leonid. It was probably a small asteroid, now scattered in fragments across the countryside. Efforts are underway to measure the trajectory of the asteroid and guide meteorite recovery efforts.

Adams: Doctor Atomic - The Countdown

I've posted this before, but I like it so much it's time to post it again! As long as we have these terrible things with us, it's pertinent.

I particularly admire the care these folks took to get the New Mexico setting just right. After all, far removed in their European redoubt, they didn't have to make that effort - they didn't have to care - and it wouldn't have affected the show much. These folks cared about everything they did, however, and it shows.

John Adams
Doctor Atomic (2005)

De Nederlandse Opera
Muziektheater, Amsterdam, June 2007

Nederlands Philharmonisch Orkest
Koor van De Nederlandse Opera
Lawrence Renes, conductor
Peter Sellars, director

This is a thrilling orchestral/ensemble set piece from Act II of John Adams' Doctor Atomic - here the countdown to detonation has begun.

Cast featured:

Gerald Finley as J. Robert Oppenheimer
Jessica Rivera as Kitty Oppenheimer
Eric Owens as Gen. Leslie Groves
Thomas Glenn as Robert Wilson
Ellen Rabiner as Pasqualita (Maid)

Wingsuit Flying

Like the article says, the idea is to avoid any ground-breaking developments.

Why Our Afghani Adventure Will End Badly

Everyone is on the take, to the point where President Karzai's family feels left out and American soldiers are little more than pawns:

In this grotesque carnival, the US military's contractors are forced to pay suspected insurgents to protect American supply routes. It is an accepted fact of the military logistics operation in Afghanistan that the US government funds the very forces American troops are fighting. And it is a deadly irony, because these funds add up to a huge amount of money for the Taliban. "It's a big part of their income," one of the top Afghan government security officials told The Nation in an interview. In fact, US military officials in Kabul estimate that a minimum of 10 percent of the Pentagon's logistics contracts--hundreds of millions of dollars--consists of payments to insurgents.

...What NCL Holdings is most notorious for in Kabul contracting circles, though, is the identity of its chief principal, Hamed Wardak. He is the young American son of Afghanistan's current defense minister, Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak, who was a leader of the mujahedeen against the Soviets. Hamed Wardak has plunged into business as well as policy. He was raised and schooled in the United States, graduating as valedictorian from Georgetown University in 1997. He earned a Rhodes scholarship and interned at the neoconservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute. That internship was to play an important role in his life, for it was at AEI that he forged alliances with some of the premier figures in American conservative foreign policy circles, such as the late Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick.

...But the biggest deal that NCL got--the contract that brought it into Afghanistan's major leagues--was Host Nation Trucking. Earlier this year the firm, with no apparent trucking experience, was named one of the six companies that would handle the bulk of US trucking in Afghanistan, bringing supplies to the web of bases and remote outposts scattered across the country.

At first the contract was large but not gargantuan. And then that suddenly changed, like an immense garden coming into bloom. Over the summer, citing the coming "surge" and a new doctrine, "Money as a Weapons System," the US military expanded the contract 600 percent for NCL and the five other companies. ... Put it in this perspective: this single two-year effort to hire Afghan trucks and truckers was worth 10 percent of the annual Afghan gross domestic product. NCL, the firm run by the defense minister's well-connected son, had struck pure contracting gold.

Host Nation Trucking does indeed keep the US military efforts alive in Afghanistan. "We supply everything the army needs to survive here," one American trucking executive told me.

...The real secret to trucking in Afghanistan is ensuring security on the perilous roads, controlled by warlords, tribal militias, insurgents and Taliban commanders. The American executive I talked to was fairly specific about it: "The Army is basically paying the Taliban not to shoot at them. It is Department of Defense money." That is something everyone seems to agree on.

...Hanna explained that the prices charged are different, depending on the route: "We're basically being extorted. Where you don't pay, you're going to get attacked. We just have our field guys go down there, and they pay off who they need to." Sometimes, he says, the extortion fee is high, and sometimes it is low. "Moving ten trucks, it is probably $800 per truck to move through an area. It's based on the number of trucks and what you're carrying. If you have fuel trucks, they are going to charge you more. If you have dry trucks, they're not going to charge you as much. If you are carrying MRAPs or Humvees, they are going to charge you more."

Hanna says it is just a necessary evil. "If you tell me not to pay these insurgents in this area, the chances of my trucks getting attacked increase exponentially."

...One of the big problems for the companies that ship American military supplies across the country is that they are banned from arming themselves with any weapon heavier than a rifle. That makes them ineffective for battling Taliban attacks on a convoy. "They are shooting the drivers from 3,000 feet away with PKMs," a trucking company executive in Kabul told me. "They are using RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades] that will blow up an up-armed vehicle. So the security companies are tied up. Because of the rules, security companies can only carry AK-47s, and that's just a joke. I carry an AK--and that's just to shoot myself if I have to!"

The rules are there for a good reason: to guard against devastating collateral damage by private security forces. Still, as Hanna of Afghan American Army Services points out, "An AK-47 versus a rocket-propelled grenade--you are going to lose!" That said, at least one of the Host Nation Trucking companies has tried to do battle instead of paying off insurgents and warlords. It is a US-owned firm called Four Horsemen International. Instead of providing payments, it has tried to fight off attackers. And it has paid the price in lives, with horrendous casualties. FHI, like many other firms, refused to talk publicly; but I've been told by insiders in the security industry that FHI's convoys are attacked on virtually every mission.

...Which leads us back to the case of Watan Risk, the firm run by Ahmad Rateb Popal and Rashid Popal, the Karzai family relatives and former drug dealers. Watan is known to control one key stretch of road that all the truckers use: the strategic route to Kandahar called Highway 1. Think of it as the road to the war--to the south and to the west. If the Army wants to get supplies down to Helmand, for example, the trucks must make their way through Kandahar.

Watan Risk, according to seven different security and trucking company officials, is the sole provider of security along this route. The reason is simple: Watan is allied with the local warlord who controls the road.

...It's hard to pinpoint what this is, exactly--security, extortion or a form of "insurance." Then there is the question, Does Ruhullah have ties to the Taliban? That's impossible to know. As an American private security veteran familiar with the route said, "He works both sides... whatever is most profitable. He's the main commander. He's got to be involved with the Taliban. How much, no one knows."

...It is certainly worth asking why NCL, a company with no known trucking experience, and little security experience to speak of, would win a contract worth $360 million. Plenty of Afghan insiders are asking questions. "Why would the US government give him a contract if he is the son of the minister of defense?" That's what Mahmoud Karzai asked me. He is the brother of President Karzai, and he himself has been treated in the press as a poster boy for access to government officials. The New York Times even profiled him in a highly critical piece. In his defense, Karzai emphasized that he, at least, has refrained from US government or Afghan government contracting. He pointed out, as others have, that Hamed Wardak had little security or trucking background before his company received security and trucking contracts from the Defense Department. "That's a questionable business practice," he said. "They shouldn't give it to him. How come that's not questioned?"

...The Afghan intelligence service even offered a solution: what if the United States were to take the tens of millions paid to security contractors and instead set up a dedicated and professional convoy support unit to guard its logistics lines? The suggestion went nowhere.

...In any case, the main issue is not that the US military is turning a blind eye to the problem. Many officials acknowledge what is going on while also expressing a deep disquiet about the situation. The trouble is that--as with so much in Afghanistan--the United States doesn't seem to know how to fix it.

Loreena McKennitt's "The Mummers' Dance"

I wondered, what is the real value of the 90's-nostalgia radio format adopted by Sacramento's KWOD 106.5 radio, considering that the 1990's wasn't that long ago, and nostalgia radio tends to reduce the usable past into a pureed paste - a simulacrum of the real thing?

Well, maybe songs like this. I had never even heard of Canadian singer Loreena McKennitt's 1997 hit "The Mummer's Dance" until I heard it on the radio the other night.

So, some utility there with the radio format (and beautiful pictures from the YouTube video), and some solace for everyone's inner Celt on a November day:

When in the springtime of the year
When the trees are crowned with leaves
When the ash and oak, and the birch and yew
Are dressed in ribbons fair

When owls call the breathless moon
In the blue veil of the night
The shadows of the trees appear
Amidst the lantern light

We've been rambling all the night
And some time of this day
Now returning back again
We bring a garland gay

Who will go down to those shady groves
And summon the shadows there
And tie a ribbon on those sheltering arms
In the springtime of the year

The songs of birds seem to fill the wood
That when the fiddler plays
All their voices can be heard
Long past their woodland days

And so they linked their hands and danced
Round in circles and in rows
And so the journey of the night descends
When all the shades are gone

"A garland gay we bring you here
And at your door we stand
It is a sprout well budded out
The work of our Lord's hand"