Melody Davi to Perform With "42nd Street" - Closest Approach, Stockton



Got an E-Mail today from Tony Davi:

I didn't have your email when I sent out the attached email regarding "42nd Street" last week. I know Melody always appreciated your encouragement and support. I don't have alot of email addresses for DMTC folks (except Steve and Jan) so if you think of anyone that might be interested, please forward or shoot me their email and I will get in touch. Check out Mel's website at http://www.melodydavi.com/

This is great, but seats are bound to run out!:

Hi all,

This may be redundant information for some of you and I apologize. Most of you know that Melody was cast as Peggy Sawyer in the 2005/2006 national tour of "42nd Street". Many have asked us to let them know when the tour comes to California. They open in NY in a month and the good news is they will be in California for about 2 months this time. The bad news is the closest they come to us is Stockton for one night, November 22nd.

Tickets don't officially go on sale to the general public until October 3rd as they are currently only selling to Season Ticket Subscribers. Stockton has a large Season ticket base and with the show being there only one night, the availability will be limited.

The good news is I have been in contact with the Box Office Manager and he is willing to put aside the best available for me now prior to the public sale. He said the Orchestra level is filling fast with season ticket sales so we need to act as quick as possible. The price range is $30, $40 and $50 plus $3 in fees per ticket. We will get a 10% group discount off the price of each ticket.

I realize this is short notice but I wanted to give everyone an opportunity to get in on the group rate and better seats. I need to have an idea on the number of tickets and the price range by the end of the week or sooner to secure the best seats possible.

If your interested in other locations, you can see the full schedule at http://www.melodydavi.com/.

I'll need to check my schedule and see what works! If Stockton is hard to work out, maybe another city will do!

Moron

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The flooded city of New Orleans will see an unparalleled building boom, US Labor Secretary Elaine Chao confidently predicted after ordering the creation of 25,000 temporary jobs for evacuees.

Well, seeing that just about every building in town will have to be destroyed because their integrity has been compromised by the floodwaters, that prediction is even safer than forecasting sunrise in the east tomorrow morning.

G

K. at Subway says I'm the eighth person to register on his consciousness today. He is finally having success relating the Mayan Calendar to his Dimensional Travelings in this Month of G - Collection, in the Month of Death. In addition, he has memorized the Chaldean numerical method, and is now working on Hebrew numbers.

I have only the fuzziest idea what he's talking about. I just hope it bears more fruit than last year's efforts to discern hidden code by scrambling the writings of Nostradamus.

She's Finally Getting Comfortable With People

On a different note, even though Cloudy has been my pet rabbit since 2001, I've never seen her ever drink water - until yesterday afternoon! So cute!

FEMA's Failures

Covered, in part, by this blog.

Learning Lessons

Nice timeline over at Obsidian Wings on these events leading up to the Flooding of New Orleans. As everyone moves into CYA mode, this timeline helps set us all straight.

I would like to vent about a particular problem at the very top of the chain of events, namely the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of Katrina's path. It seems to me that NHC has settled into its own CYA position as a standard operating procedure: instead of issuing the best forecast possible on a hurricane's path, NHC waits to first get consensus from its suite of computer models, some of which are better than others at forecasting hurricane movements.

Delay at issuing the forecast means delay in political circles in issuing evacuation orders. It is a grave responsibility to issue a mandatory evacuation of a major city, and it shouldn't be the least bit surprising that Mayor Nagin hesitated at doing so. I don't think that NHC's delay at sounding the alarm should be excused, however.

About a year ago, I started doing hurricane path forecasts for friends who retired to Tampa, FL. I'm an air pollution meteorologist by trade, but it was fun to be doing weather forecasting again, to keep my skills sharp. I preferred to rely on the NOGAPS model for hurricane path forecasts: it's a baroclinic model that did very well with Ivan's path, and rarely blunders like some of the others.

I quickly noticed, particularly with last year's Hurricane Ivan, that NHC's preference for computer-model consensus meant delay when the models' opinions diverged. Each model's opinion was weighed equally, but some models were big-picture models, unsuited for fine-scale detail, while others were barotropic models, which simplify information regarding temperature gradients - information that is of crucial importance in the timing of the movement of the mid-latitude systems that often steer hurricanes. Baroclinic models like NOGAPS don't make these simplifications. Getting consensus from all models usually means delay, much like getting consensus from Congress on any problem-of-the day usually means delay.

The dirty little secret is that I don't think NHC minds delay that much: they would prefer to keep everyone in a state of mild apprehension about an approaching storm rather than risk an overly-specific forecast, and therefore lull others nearby that might be affected into unwarranted complacency. Chicken Little is NHC's CYA standard-mode-of-operation. And it's easy to see why this would be the case - it's horrible to be completely taken by surprise by a hurricane, and to be stuck with the guilt of having failed to make the alarm.

With Katrina, the NOGAPS model tipped off, or SHOULD have tipped off, meteorologists that Katrina was heading towards Biloxi as early as the morning of Friday, August 26th. Model consensus wasn't reached until Friday evening, however (I blogged about the process with posts here). It can make, and here it apparently did make, a huge difference to lose a weekday's daylight hours in preparation for the storm.

NHC needs to weed its basket of models used in making hurricane path forecasts. At a minimum, the barotropic models need to go.

As I say, I very much sympathize with Mayor Nagin if he delayed in ordering a mandatory evacuation. People can die in accidents in a mandatory evacuation. But I do think he should have gotten better weather forecasts: it might have provided an extra edge and saved some lives here.

Tropical Storm Ophelia

And just when I thought the danger had finally passed, that area of storminess I've been warning about for days finally went ahead, took the next step and has been dubbed Tropical Storm Ophelia!

Nevertheless, Ophelia doesn't look like THAT big of a threat....it will linger, seemingly for eternity, off the NE coast of FL, and the coast of SC. The GFS model shows it intruding westward onto the east coast of FL, but then moving NE again, over open water, and towards the SC coast. Since it will be around for a long time, it might wander over and around many such places. It might occasionally set off thunderstorms in the Tampa area.

I suspect that having Tropical Storm Nate generate took away some of Ophelia's energy, which is all to the good.

August and September Links

A number of interesting stories came and went in August and early September. Here is a summary of recent stories, with links, that caught my eye.

Missing: The War Heroes: I think it's very strange that the military is downplaying wartime heroism - apparently they prefer that everyone's sacrifice be recognized, rather than focusing on any one hero. People don't think that way though - people want and need heroes. The military is doing everyone a disservice. I mean, after all, yesterday I saw a headline in the Business Section of the Sacramento Bee saying that what Wall Street needs now is more heroes. If it's good enough for Wall Street.......

People Rush to Unload Debts: The recent changes making bankruptcy more stringent are pushing people to decide to hang it all up.

Talk Radio, Talked Out: All the dissonance regarding our failure in Iraq is driving people away from talk radio - finally! - but even the liberal Air America has suffered.

Short Squeeze on Treasuries: Hedge funds can swamp the government's securities markets, creating big problems and uncontrollable price increases.

Farmers Unhappy About Forklift Air Pollution Regulations: Carl Moyer Program fund bait-and-switch isn't going down so well.

Asbestos Exposure Scientific Panel Won't Meet: Is this a case of the desire for perfection trumping doing the merely good?

The Peak?: Peter Maass' excellent article exploring whether we've already reached the maximum rate of petroleum extraction.

Fighting Islamists is Nothing Like Fighting Communists: An appropriate and useful riposte by David Rieff to the Peter Beinart idiots of the world.

Is The Bush Administration Anti-Science?: Daniel Smith suggests no, and in important respects, he may be right (It was, in part, my pessimism regarding the likely impact of the global warming doomsayers - basically, none - that led me away from climatology as a professional goal).

Slatter's Court a Historical Landmark?: Well bust my buttons! But Davis does need some color, after all!

The Amazing Manakin: A bird that plays notes - using its wings!

Satirical Song Upsets Serbs: Norwegian soldiers take a satirical remake of the Beach Boy's 'Kokomo', make a video about Kosovo, and piss off lots of folks.

Gossip Is The Key To Social Order: But we knew that already, didn't we?

The MySpace Phenomenon: I still like old-fashioned blogging, but maybe I should check it out - others are!

California Farmers Whining: About tougher border restrictions keeping their labor pool away (it figures!)

R.H. Phillips Makes The Sexual Abuse Problem Go Away: Lots of love to Natalie Wormeli for her persistence here, and hard work!

The Hydrogen Highway To Nowhere: For myself, with all the safety issues regarding hydrogen - its flammability, the absence of any color in its flame, so you could walk right into the flame before you realize you are on fire - I can't imagine why anyone would want to use it as a transportation fuel.

And finally:

Bush Tries to Quell Political Crisis Over Katrina: This ugly, wretched article by Bush asskissers Elisabeth Bumiller and Adam Nagourney tries to paper over Bush's inexcusable lack of action regarding the New Orleans disaster. Shame on The New York Times for this pompous crap!

Ladder

Unpacked the new 'Little Giant' ladder system and tried it out. Didn't succeed in fixing the outdoor light fixture under the eaves of my bedroom yet, but I did get a bit of painting done.

Gil and Sherry Moving to Florida

Sad to say for Artaud performance poetry fans, but next-door-neighbors Gil Rodriguez and his wife Sherry, leading spirits of Unheimlich, are leaving town, for New Port Richey, north of Tampa, Florida. On Thursday evening, Luna's Cafe will host a fond farewell to both Gil and Sherry: show up if you can! If you can't, please patronize their yard sale on the 2100 block of Second Avenue!

Good News

The news looks good on the tropical storm front. Right now, it looks like Mother Nature will resolve all the potential dangers in the best possible way for Florida and South Carolina. Tropical Storm Nate has been generated at the NE end of the area where storm development was likely, far offshore, and that storm will almost certainly head NE. Smaller areas in the Bahamas and the NE Gulf of Mexico will develop convection and thunderstorms, and probably not escalate towards tropical storm activity.

Nascent

From Central Florida Hurricane Center blog:

Good morning all. Looks like some broad cyclonic turning starting to develop off the SE coast of FL. All of the global models have indicated over the last several days a closed low developing from the old surface trough that migrated southward and now stalled over south FL. 00Z CMC takes the low across the south half of the peninsula, into the GOM to NO. 00Z NOGAPS & UKMET move it slowly up the easy coast of FL and deepen it. 06Z GFS runs it up the middle of the state and then NE. From NWS Tampa Bay 2 AM Disc:

MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A MORE DEVELOPED LOW ONTO THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT PAINFULLY SLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH AND LOWER POPS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE REVERSE. PRE-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AS MENTIONED IN TPC'S LATE EVENING TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE LOW CENTER IN QUESTION FOR MID-WEEK IS ACTUALLY A NEW ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE INITIAL LOW LIFTS OUT. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS LOW BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOW MOVEMENT IF AND WHEN THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP.

New Theater Update

As far as I know, we are still on schedule for a Sept. 16th opening. The electrical panels are said to all be in, and work is proceeding on the ventilation system. We are supposed to be working on the stage (meaning building the stage, not rehearsing on it) this coming weekend. I don't know about the sheet rock situation, though, but presumably there is progress there as well.....

Cache Creek

Devastating evening up there: didn't sleep yet, lost $2,000, almost got it back, then lost it again. Ugh! Thank goodness I'm still slightly ahead after the huge win there last week!

At 3:30 a.m., I developed a sudden hunger for ice cream, so there I was, idling interminably (one thing you learn to do in a casino is you learn to master your impatience, and wait, wait, wait). I waited for the overwhelmed and overworked staff to handle the fussy mob in front of me. Despite the hour, the casino was still packed, mostly with Cambodians and Filipinos and Thais - you'd hardly know we were in rural California! Everyone had specialized orders for cappucino and other assorted specialties - I couldn't even get chocolate ice cream, and had to settle for coffee ice cream.

Skipping a night's sleep is always an adventure, nearly falling asleep at the wheel on the drive home, problems with memorization (which affected musical theater rehearsal and Sunday ballet class) , and sudden naps. And when sleep the following evening finally came, REM sleep attacked with a vengeance! I dreamt I was sitting at work, and was hit with a snowball from nowhere. Investigating, I discovered a vast white void in the workplace, a huge cavern of a tank, with delicate lacy snow lining the bottom. I finally found the ice cream!

Jennifer Makes The Paper!

Jennifer Lin, associate director of development and marketing for the Sacramento Opera, and who is Pam's Sunday ballet class:

Q: What do you think keeps some people from attending an opera?

A: It seems very foreign. We have people call in and say, "Do I have to wear a tuxedo to the event?" Or "I don't speak Italian, am I going to be able to understand the opera?" You can say, "Oh, there's supertitles in English. You can follow along with the story." "Dress is not incredibly formal. You can come in business casual." There's a lot of outreach we need to be doing for bridging the gap for people who are completely new to the art form.

"Grease" - Opening Night - Runaway Stage

Runaway Stage Productions presents the musical "Grease," featuring, clockwise from top left, Lauren Miller as Marty, Lauryn Caruso as Rizzo, Kari Pruitt as Jan, Netty Carey as Frenchy, Stephanie Keeney as Sandy and Tristan Rumery as Danny. It opens at 8 p.m. Friday and continues through Sept. 25 at the 24th Street Theatre, 2791 24th St. (Photo and caption from The Sacramento Bee)

Just returned from seeing "Grease" on opening night. Excellent show, full of exuberant youthful energy (which depends heavily, of course, on choreographer Tiffany Hurley's work): I highly recommend seeing the show!

In some shows, it can hurt to push the pace too hard, but "Grease" is a good show to push hard: Bob Baxter and Co. are to be commended for their blistering attack. Pushing the pace hard can lead to sloppiness, but there was no sense of that (maybe just a bit over-exuberant at the top of the second act, though).

Runaway Stage mikes their shows, which can lead to certain pitfalls, such as degraded sound quality and feedback, and which have marred other Runaway shows. Little of that happened opening night (just a touch, once again at the top of the second act).

Excellent performances from Tristan Rumery (Danny) and Stephanie Keeney (Sandy). Excellent singing from everyone: Lauren Miller as Marty, Lauryn Caruso as Rizzo, Netty Carey as Frenchy, Tevye Ditter as Johnny Casino/Teen Angel, plus Chris Scarberry as Roger and Kari Pruitt as Jan. More critical friends of mine who saw the performance, people who have voice training, commented that Stephanie's singing was weak, but I didn't notice this: I thought there was a bit of a balance problem during 'Summer Nights', however, when both Stephanie's and Tristan's voices were being overpowered by the band and everyone else's voices.

Liberties were taken in the show regarding expletives - the language is rougher than what I remember from the script (DMTC did the show in 2003), which is fine with me, because it would have been true to the time, but may unsettle some.

Good set design for the 24th St. stage. The band was placed on a platform in the back (I guess Erik Daniells was upstairs in the corner: I couldn't see him from where I was, though). There were doors beneath the platform, behind which the soda shop seats/pajama party bed were stored. In addition, there were interesting James Dean (plus Sandra Dee?) paintings, and period bric-a-brac to catch the eye.

One thing that bothered me was the set painting - it took me a while to realize that the beige color dominating the set was the exact shade of the paint I used on my laundry room and basement walls. My unease regarding what I'm sure most people considered a neutral color, and I considered a utilitarian color, was strictly personal, though. I thought the flats on the sides of the stage intruded too far into the proscenium arch - the 24th Street theater stage is quite small and can't tolerate much (if any) intrusions from the side.

Lillian Baxter and Denise Miles did a good job with costumes - bright, flashy (e.g., nice slippers and hairdos on the beauty school dancers).

Bradley Bong's hair was tinted red, just for the sake of the one 'Howdy Doody' joke in Act II - cute: a sacrifice from him, but cute nevertheless!

Excellent performance from Hailee Ketchum-Wiggins, who played Patty Simcox (she's only 14!) She's a fast learner on the baton (Stephanie looks like she's already a pro on the baton, though). I remember taking ballet with a girl in Tucson many years ago (I think her name is Tracey Oates), who got a full scholarship to U of A strictly - and only - because she was Arizona's unbeatable champion baton twirler 5 years in a row - don't lose those irreplaceable motor skills! Brett Bachman played Eugene well: he worked well with Jordan Gomez as Cha Cha DiGregorio in the high school hop scene, providing a real nice 'ahhh!' moment when they exited together.

I worried about Alex Powell, who played Sonny La Tierri (we were in 'Damn Yankees' together a year ago), getting pushed around so much, especially down the stairs, but he's quick and lithe and somehow made it OK. Michael McElroy played Kenickie well: in general, Runaway had an excellent group of Burger Palace Boys.

I somehow missed the "mooning" by Chris Scarberry, who played Roger, despite it occurring downstage center where absolutely no one could possibly miss it. It occurred just on the other side of the head of the tall lady sitting in front of me, so I'm still scratching my head about it. Apparently it was au natural.

Preparedness

Louisiana's official hurricane plan says absolutely zero about how to handle an evacuation once New Orleans is flooded.

Compassionate Conservatism



In the litany of disaster, this stood out.

Last year, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers essentially stopped major work on the levee system that has now been breached after the Bush administration cut funding for the project. It was the first such stoppage in 37 years.

Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans

Angry interview (with transcript).

NAGIN: I need reinforcements, I need troops, man. I need 500 buses, man. We ain't talking about -- you know, one of the briefings we had, they were talking about getting public school bus drivers to come down here and bus people out here.

I'm like, "You got to be kidding me. This is a national disaster. Get every doggone Greyhound bus line in the country and get their asses moving to New Orleans."

That's -- they're thinking small, man. And this is a major, major, major deal. And I can't emphasize it enough, man. This is crazy.

92L

I'm fretting about the possibility of a near-Florida storm, but the GFS model is showing the real threat might be a powerful storm barreling out of the tropical Atlantic (currently named 92L). Here is a summary regarding both possibilities from the Central Florida Hurricane Center 2005 blog:

Next up. 92L. You may have heard me or many others say that when the models come into agreement on a storm developing, it usually does. The last time the models were in agreement like this, we had invest 97L developing off of the coast of Africa -- obviously, that one never panned out, as it came off too far to the north and in too much of a shearing environment to become organized enough to be classified. However, this one is much further south, in a more favorable upper-level flow & mid-level airmass regime (particularly in the long-term), and already has some organization to it. The mid-level organization of the storm is more impressive than is the low-level organization at this point, but it appears as though a low-level circulation is getting organized somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-10N and 34-36W. The pattern suggests this one will have a better chance of getting further west than the two ahead of it -- and moreso than most storms already this season -- and has a lot of model support. The GFS has been developing this one and taking it near or north of the Greater Antilles as a less than 980mb system (pretty good for that model), while the GFDL brings a near-category 5 hurricane to the northern islands in 5 days. The other major global models generally agree on bringing a substantial feature (at least a TS) to the northern islands in the 5-6 day time span. Given the way the pattern is unfolding, the low latitude of the disturbance, and its current organization, this one has a chance. Expect a tropical depression -- #15 -- out of this one at any point with development into a named system shortly thereafter. It likely won't go as far south as did Ivan last year and Emily this year, but likely will still be one to deal with for the next week to ten days.

There is some support in some of the global & mesoscale models for lowering pressures in the Gulf of Mexico/Bahamas region over the next few days into early next week. A current overview of the region shows a strong ridge building in along the eastern seaboard into the Gulf, a sharp but narrow trough just southeast of there extending from the upper-low east of Bermuda (near Lee) west-southwest into the NW Caribbean, and relatively weak winds with signs of an upper-level ridge forming between that upper-low and the one affecting TD 14 at this point. As the southern end of the trough associated with a frontal boundary and Katrina's remnants slides into the Gulf, it will have a favorable upper-level pattern and marginal to slightly-favorable -- due to Katrina's wake -- SSTs for development. A lot of dry air is projected to be in the region and it is questionable as to whether the development will be tropical or not, but nevertheless it is something to watch. Anything that forms east of Florida will likely ride the coast; anything west of there would likely head west towards the western Gulf -- all assuming the entity that forms would be tropical -- but it's really too early to even speculate on that.

Hastert Steps In It

Boy, you have to admire Dennis Hastert (in a way), even if you wonder about the timing. He brings up the always-timely question of whether flood-prone cities should be rebuilt after a deluge:

WASHINGTON - House Speaker Dennis Hastert dropped a bombshell on flood-ravaged New Orleans on Thursday by suggesting that it isn’t sensible to rebuild the city."It doesn't make sense to me," Hastert told the Daily Herald in suburban Chicago in editions published today. "And it's a question that certainly we should ask."

Nevertheless, Hastert brought up his point in a totally-heartless (somehow typically Republican) way. What about half a million people, and their property? They have to go somewhere - right now! Gotta cover all the bases in advance, Denny!

But let's be honest, this isn't about cost-conscious engineering, it's all about the Negroes, isn't it? (The Sacramento Bee had a statistical graphic this morning showing the New Orleans population is 67% African-American). The Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal just chimed in:

The New Orleans crime rate during normal times is 10 times the national average, Gelinas writes, and "the city's economy is utterly dependent on tourism. . . . New Orleans has experienced a steady brain drain and fiscal drain for decades, as affluent corporations and individuals have fled, leaving behind a large population of people dependent on the government. Socially, New Orleans is one of America's last helpless cities--just at the moment when it must do all it can to help itself survive."

There's another, even simpler reason for pessimism. Many residential areas in New Orleans are below sea level, so that it was only a matter of time before they ended up in the soup. Having experienced this horror firsthand, will residents of New Orleans (and its suburbs, which are also devastated) be eager to return and face future hurricane seasons? Would you be?

Doesn't the thuggish Republican complacency just gall?

The abyss yawns.......

Make Up Your Mind!

The Atlantic tropical storm forecast is interesting, showing tropical storm development as the low moves from the Bahamas to the South Carolina coast early next week, where it gets wedged between two highs tugging in different directions.

Then, the storm needs to decide which way to go. It might move NE along the Atlantic coast, or (my thought), it will abruptly change direction and head SW, across Jacksonville, FL (or the GA coast), heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.

In any event, it bears watching. This tropical depression-to-be is not yet named by National Hurricane Center.

Feet Don't Fail Me Now!

Digby says it all:

Oh, this is rich. DC MediaGirl (via the Daoureport) says that Michele Malkin is having a fit because Hollywood and LiveAid hasn't stepped into the breach in New Orleans. Apparently, Hollywood should hold fundraisers while disasters are still unfolding. They shouldn't even have a day or two to plan them --- entertainers should immediately rush to the closest TV studio and just start singing and dancing as fast as they can. I presume that Malkin feels this should be done in lieu of actual disaster relief by Big Govmint, which is the root of all evil after all.

Jesus' Finger

Divine intervention?

In the garden behind St. Louis Cathedral on Royal Street lies an incredible tangle of zig-zagging broken tree trunks and branches, mixed with smashed wrought iron fences.

But right in the middle, a statue of Jesus is still standing, unscathed by the storm, save for the left thumb and index finger, which are missing.

The missing digits immediately set off speculation of divine intervention.

New Orleans has a long history praying to saints for guidance and protection in times of great peril. In fact it was Our Lady of Prompt Succor who was said to be responsible for saving the Ursulines Convent in the French Quarter from a raging fire that consumed the rest of the city centuries ago.

Since then, New Orlenians have prayed to the saint for protection from natural disasters. On Saturday, Archbishop Alfred Hughes read a prayer over the radio asking for Our Lady's intervention to spare the city a direct hit by Hurricane Katrina.

Many in the Quarter are now saying it was the hand of Jesus, the missing digits to be precise, that flicked the hurricane east just a little to keep the city from suffering a direct blow.

Big Centipede

This story reminds me of one sleepy morning, back in high school. I washed my face, and lazily watched the water drain from the bathroom sink. The last thing to go down the drain was a 6-inch-long centipede. WTF?

"Thinking it was a mouse, I went to investigate the sound. The sound was coming from under some papers which I lifted, expecting to see the mouse scamper away," the 32-year-old psychotherapist said Wednesday. "Instead, when I lifted the papers, I saw this prehistoric looking animal skitter away behind a stack of books."

He trapped the 9-inch-long creature between a stack of books and put it in a plastic container.

The next day he took it to Britain's Natural History Museum, which identified the insect as a Scolopendra gigantea -- the world's biggest species of centipede.

Puff Of Dry Air

Interesting article....a 'puff of dry air' weakened Katrina just before landfall.

Fly-Over Folks

Back to work!

New Orleans Flooding

Billmon gets it right: check it out. No one is yet focused on this new tropical depression piling on - what can one say?

Crying won't help you, praying won't do you no good
Now, crying won't help you, praying won't do you no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

Memphis Minnie McCoy
When the Levee Breaks
1929

New Tropical Depression

This new tropical depression next week looks increasingly real, so it's something to watch out for.

Forecast: It will arrive in the Cocoa Beach area on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning next week, without much warning, but nevertheless not be terribly powerful. It will lose some punch as it crosses central Florida, but nevertheless, be prepared for a stormy Wednesday/Thursday - even Friday in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. Then it will cross into the Gulf of Mexico, start getting seriously organized, and begin raking the northern Gulf coast, plunging eventually into the New Orleans area, like Tropical Storm Cindy did (and where its presence will be unwelcome).

Steve and Jan Go On Vacation....

And all I get is this lousy JPEG!

Actually, Morro Rock is an old friend: I've done a lot of air quality modeling for the entire area in the last few years! But I don't think I've been down there since 1974.....

Two-Faced Google

Hypocrisy, and information:

Last month, Elinor Mills, a writer for CNET News, a technology news Web site, set out to explore the power of search engines to penetrate the personal realm: she gave herself 30 minutes to see how much she could unearth about [Google CEO Eric] Schmidt by using his company's own service. ...

When Ms. Mills's article appeared, however, the company reacted in a way better suited to a 16th-century monarchy than a 21st-century democracy with an independent press.

But even better:

Book publishers are feeling insecure in their own houses, too, as whirring search-engine bots hover above them. ... The contents of books are protected by copyright law, and are most emphatically not freely available.

... But Google subsequently found a speedier way to proceed: simply borrowing the bound print collections of the Harvard, Stanford and University of Michigan research libraries for its scanning. When the project is completed, Google will retain perfect digital copies, as well as provide copies to the libraries. No muss, no fuss, no negotiations with copyright holders.

Authors and publishers were astounded. Peter Givler, the executive director of the Association of American University Presses, said Google's action was "tantamount to saying that Google can make copies of every copyrighted work ever published, period." The courts, he said, have never recognized a claim such as Google's that "fair use," which permits limited copying for research purposes, would permit the copying of an entire book.

The cries of protest from publishers have not abated with the passage of time. This month, Google announced that it would go ahead and copy all books unless the publisher elects by November to opt out, title by title. Allan Adler, the vice president for legal and government affairs of the Association of American Publishers, asked Google to imagine what its own reaction would be were others to help themselves to Google's intellectual property covered by patents, with the burden placed on Google to find out about the use and opt out. He described Google's recent actions as "a very aggressive, pushy style that says, 'We don't care that your business is different than ours.' "

Originalism

Can't agree more - over at Legal Fiction:

To me, Bush v. Gore ranks below only Dred Scott in terms of sheer arrogance and disregard of the limits of judicial power. It was the second-worst decision in American history and I’ll keep banging that drum until the day they roll my carpel-tunneled bones into a pine box.

"This Is Our Tsunami"

Well, if it's it any consolation, the death toll from Hurricane Katrina will probably be lower than from 1969's Hurricane Camille, if only because Katrina struck in the day, as opposed to nighttime Camille. But maybe I speak too soon - they can't even get into some of these places yet. Starting the survey in New Orleans:

Little islands of red ants floated in the gasoline-fouled waters through downtown. The Hyatt Hotel and other high-rise around the Superdome had rows and rows of shattered windows.

"We know that last night we had over 300 folks that we could confirm were on tops of roofs and waiting for our assistance. We pushed hard all throughout the night. We hoisted over 100 folks last night just in the Mississippi area. Our crews over New Orleans probably did twice that," Capt. Dave Callahan of the Coast Guard Aviation Training Center in Mississippi said on ABC.

National Guardsmen brought in people from outlying areas to the Superdome in the backs of big 2 1/2-ton Army trucks. Louisiana's wildlife enforcement department also brought people in on the backs of their pickups. Some were wet, some were in wheelchairs, some were holding babies and nothing else.

... Late Monday, Harrison County emergency operations center spokesman Jim Pollard said about 50 people had died in the county, with some 30 of the dead at a beach-side apartment complex in Biloxi.

Aargghh! History repeats itself! This kind of hurricane "party" is exactly what killed so many people in 1969 with Hurricane Camille! Continuing....

Three other people were killed by falling trees in Mississippi and two died in a traffic accident in Alabama, authorities said.

In Louisiana, Terry Ebbert, New Orleans' homeland security chief, said bodies were seen floating in the floodwaters in the hardest-hit areas. He could not give an estimate of deaths as of Tuesday morning, but said he believed the death toll would not be as great as some of the images of devastation would suggest.

... "This is our tsunami," Mayor A. J. Holloway of Biloxi, Miss., told The Biloxi Sun Herald.

Teresa Kavanagh, 35, of Biloxi, shook her head is disbelief as she took photographs of the damage in her hometown.

"Total devastation. Apartment complexes are wiped clean. We're going to rebuild, but it's going to take long time. Houses that withstood Camille are nothing but slab now," she said. Hurricane Camille killed 256 people in Louisiana and Mississippi in 1969.

... The hurricane knocked out power to more than 1 million people from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and authorities said it could be two months before electricity is restored to everyone. Katrina also disrupted petroleum output in the very center of the U.S. oil refining industry and rattled energy markets.

... Michael Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said on CBS that it will be "quite awhile" before those displaced by the hurricane can return, particularly in areas close to downtown New Orleans. In some places, "it's going to be weeks at least before people can get back."

And once the floodwaters go down, "it's going to be incredibly dangerous" because of structural damage to homes, diseases from animal carcasses and chemicals in homes, Brown said.

... Mike Spencer of Gulfport made the mistake of trying to ride out the storm in his house. He told NBC that he used his grandson's little surfboard to make his way around the house as the water rose around him.

Finally, he said, "as the house just filled up with water, it forced me into the attic, and then I ended up kicking out the wall and climbing up to a tree because the houses around me were just disappearing."

He said he wrapped himself around a tree branch and waited four or five hours.
Anne Anderson said she lost her family home in Gulfport.

"My family's an old Mississippi family. I had antiques, 150 years old or more, they're all gone. We have just basically a slab," she told NBC. She added: "Behind us we have a beautiful sunrise and sunset, and that is going to be what I'm going to miss the most, sitting on the porch watching those."

Fretting

The longer-range forecasts are showing development of two areas of storminess east of Florida early next week. It's too early to say whether they will develop into tropical depressions or not. The easternmost area of storminess is probably no threat - it'll probably head north - but the westernmost area is hard to read: it could go north - or west. What I worry about is that the western area of storminess could develop rather quickly, adjacent to Florida, and so there might not be much warning if it comes in. And it's farther north than Katrina was, so if it came west, it would have some effect on the Tampa/St. Petersburg area.

Maybe I'm just fretting: tomorrow's forecasts will give better guidance.

Warning Unheeded...

But nevertheless accurate:

Meteorologists performed admirably in alerting public officials to Katrina's rising destruction, allowing them to evacuate New Orleans and other Gulf Coast cities in plenty of time. But Emanuel said that other warnings by meteorologists have gone unheeded in past decades -- warnings to go easy on the housing and commercial development in areas like Florida that are highly at risk to Atlantic hurricanes.

"A lot of people in my business had been, even in the 1980s, warning anybody who would listen -- which was very few, it turned out -- that there was going to be this upswing in hurricanes," Emanuel said. "It's not rocket science. We've been building all this stuff in Florida during this lull that lasted 20 years. We built all this stuff, and it's waiting to get creamed. There's been a fantastic amount of construction. A lot of people have built homes on the water. And nobody really listened. And now all of those predictions are exactly coming true. But it doesn't have much to do with global warming."

To Emanuel, Katrina is not an unusual hurricane. "Not that many hurricanes get that powerful, but we've had hurricanes like Katrina before," he said. "Camille was about the same strength. Andrew was about the same strength. Katrina was just unfortunate, because it happened to hit a very densely populated area."

Ultimately, Emanuel said, it's not a vengeful Mother Nature but man's politics that are to blame for the destruction. As long as people insist on erecting homes and businesses, aided by low insurance rates and business lobbyists, in vulnerable areas like the Gulf Coast, there's little scientists can do to prevent the havoc. "I like to say that there is no such thing as a 100 percent natural disaster," Emanuel said. "We have to put stuff in harm's way for there to be a disaster, and we're very good at doing that, and subsidizing people who continue to do it."

Don't You Just Love Paul Krugman?

Here he is rebuking that partisan idiot, Alan Greenspan.

Robertson Fallout

Boy, Pat Robertson sure caused problems for American diplomacy, no?

American foreign policy has always walked naked in Latin America, but Robertson's threats, with their references to the Monroe Doctrine and how assassination is cheaper than war, went beyond the grotesque. They elevated the image of yanqui imperialist to caricature, and the White House's tepid distancing from them ironically seemed to make them more believable. Venezuelans, understandably less willing than Americans to dismiss Robertson as a ranter, indicated they'll demand extra security for Chávez when he goes to New York for the U.N. General Assembly this fall and announced “temporary” restrictions on the number of foreign missionaries allowed to work in Venezuela.

Unsophisticated?

Who knows, maybe, but paying off a mortgage these days certainly puts your mind at ease! I wouldn't mind being a little unsophisticated!

Such thriftiness has gone out of fashion. What was once considered undesirable — taking on large debt — is now seen as smart. And what used to be smart — becoming debt-free — is described as imprudent.

"If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" "It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress."

He called it "very unsophisticated."

Like Camille II

Katrina has pretty much leveled the Louisiana/Mississippi coast and caused innumerable problems in New Orleans:

... The storm passed just east of New Orleans, straining the system of levees and pumping stations that protect the low-lying city. About 70 percent of the city sits below sea level.

The National Weather Service reported that water had overtopped levees in Orleans and St. Bernard parishes.

The Lower 9th Ward, on the east side of New Orleans was under five to six feet of rising water after three pumps failed, according to WGNO reporter Susan Roesgen, who is with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. She said New Orleans police had received more than 100 reports of people trapped on their roofs.

The Associated Press reported that entire neighborhoods along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain were flooded, and residents had scrambled onto the roofs of their shotgun-style houses.

"I'm not doing too good right now," Chris Robinson told the AP via cell phone from his home east of the city's downtown. "The water's rising pretty fast. I got a hammer and an ax and a crowbar, but I'm holding off on breaking through the roof until the last minute. Tell someone to come get me please. I want to live."

Cache Creek

I've rarely returned to Cache Creek Casino and Resort since my serious blackjack days (November 1995 - August 1998: as I recall, I watched Princess Di's funeral there through the smoky haze). In fact, I was a bit embittered about the place (accumulated loss there was somewhere over $30,000, and that winding Highway 16 is still a massive hazard), but lately, since Cache Creek donated $2,500 to Davis Musical Theatre Company (DMTC), I've been kinder on them. Heck, that's just some of my money returning to where it can do the most good. So, on Sunday afternoon, a kinder, gentler Marc decided to return for a few hours of casual blackjack.

The drive up there was nice - Yolo County at its best. There was an interesting sign on the outskirts of Woodland: "Rainbow Ranch - Not Gay, Just Happy." Upon arriving at the casino, I saw a fellow with a T-Shirt: "A Sight For Sore Eyes," with 'Sore Eyes' really badly blurred. I was puzzled why recorded voices in the slot machines (fantasy-labeled things like 'Hollywood Dreams' and 'Go Ape') were egging the bettors on in Australian accents, but then I noticed that some - maybe all! - of the slot machines there are manufactured in Australia. Who would have thought?

The massive construction efforts over the last few years at Cache Creek have produced a real handsome resort, and as a salutory side-effect, have made the casino a lot less smoky than it used to be. The only reminder of the Old Cache Creek of the last decade is that F.B. is STILL a pit boss there (I don't think he recognized me). In any event, I paid little attention to the resort: I made a beeline for the casino, and didn't check out the spa, or the dancing, or the restaurants, or the gift shop, or damn near anything else they've got there except three different blackjack tables. A few hours of casual blackjack extended past frenetic midnight, but all to good effect - final cash minus beginning cash: $3,880.00 - $280.00 = $3,600.00 (Despite Highway 16, Marc feels even kinder to Cache Creek now than ever!)

Chautauqua Playhouse's "Lend Me A Tenor"
(Picture caption, from the Sacramento Bee's Ticket section)
The Chautauqua Playhouse presents "Lend Me a Tenor," featuring, from left, Erin Jones, Savannah Scott and Lenore Sebastian. It opens at 8 tonight and continues through Oct. 1 at 5325 Engle Road in the La Sierra Community Center, Carmichael.

I had spent most of Saturday just way too hot: first, aerobics class, then patching a roof, then ballet - I was hot even while taking a nap! I thought, "I've got to watch someone else sweat, for a change." Then I remembered that Chautauqua Playhouse opened "Lend Me A Tenor" on Friday night, and I thought, "perfect: stage lights!" Gil Sebastian was directing the show, and I already knew several in the cast: Lenore Sebastian, Erin Jones, Paul Fearn, and Savannah Scott - all quite experienced on the stage - plus others whom I knew by reputation: Rodger Hoopman and Jeff Labowitch particularly. Time to go to Carmichael, I thought!

Here is a plot summary (borrowed from this Australian blog):

The play, written by Ken Ludwig, is a farce about opera. The main character, Max, is a dogsbody for an opera company managed by Henry Saunders. They're bringing out the famous Italian tenor Tito Morelli to sing at a special charity performance of Otello. Max likes to sing opera himself, and tries to impress Saunders' daughter Maggie. However she only has eyes for the tenor, otherwise known as "Il Stupendo". Morelli arrives with his fiery wife Maria, they fight, and the tenor appears to top himself. To avoid a public relations disaster, Saunders forces Max to dress up as Othello (complete with black face) and go on, pretending to be Morelli. Hilarity then ensues with two Othellos running about, dodging Saunders, each other and some very "excited" fans (including a hotel porter).

It's one of the better farce comedies I've seen. The writing is sharp and funny, the pace is frenetic, and it has all the elements of farce — slamming doors, people hidden in cupboards and bathrooms, mistaken identities, trousers round the ankles, that sort of thing.

Chautauqua's version is slightly different - no trousers or cupboards - but I quibble....

Chautauqua Playhouse's "Lend Me A Tenor" is excellent. Kevin Caravalho, who plays Max, is a ball of comic energy (Kevin has appeared locally in Runaway Stage's production of "The Odd Couple" as Vinny, and in Magic Circle's "Little Shop of Horrors" as Seymour). Kevin's kinetic frenzy drives the rest of the cast. Erin is wonderfully funny as Maggie, Rodger is appropriately loud and blustery as Saunders, Paul has wonderful timing as Merelli, and Lenore is excellent as Maria. No one can vamp it up like Savannah! Jeff Labowitch was appropriately silly as the porter, and Fritzi Youngstedt was fine as the Chairman of the Opera Guild.

The plot of the entire farce seemed surprisingly complicated to me - it's amazing the actors can carry it all off (I'm unfamiliar with farce: I'll have to try it sometime!) Little details caught my eye: for example, Paul has to 'play dead' as the drugged Merelli, which I'm sure is surprisingly difficult to do when so much else is going on around him (like when Saunders vents at him). Kevin, Paul, and Jeff are excellent singers, as well as fine comic actors. Lenore has fine expression as the angry Maria, and Erin and Savannah, as well as being fine actresses, make an excellent team of - uh - temptresses.

At intermission, I talked to Tevye Ditter, who discussed his latest projects. He is playing Teen Angel/Johnny Casino in Runaway Stage's upcoming staging of "Grease", but is reserving a lot of his time for an original musical being written by his former vocal coach, Dario Vanni, who is returning to Sacramento soon from Eureka. The musical is about Michelangelo, and the painting of the Sistine Chapel. Tev is alternately the test bed and muse for the songs and script. Given Tev's talents, this sounds like a really interesting project, and we'll have to keep an eye out for the production, when announced.

In one sense only, "Lend Me A Tenor" was a disappointment: I didn't see anyone breaking a sweat. See what happens when you put all that experience on stage? It's August, they are going 100 mph, and the performers are as cool as ice!

See the show while you can! It runs through September, ending October 1st, but be sure to check times: some Sundays, I understand there isn't a matinee performance.

Transmogrifying

Katrina is turning into an awesome storm. I hope it weakens, but fear it won't!

Cudgel And A Shield

Cindy Sheehan's strength:

And no amount of political capital can compete with the moral gravitas of a grieving mother. The mothers of dead soldiers have no credibility issues. They command attention and demand respect. And if this lone crusade manages to attract just one more mother of a dead American soldier, it’ll turn into a movement impervious to any kind of political assault. The White House will continue to have trouble disparaging and discrediting Sheehan, because she is immune from political attack. And despite her growing political clout, all the efforts so far to turn her into a political caricature and paint her as a partisan with an ax to grind have failed. That is because having buried a son who gave his life for his country is both a cudgel and a shield.

She cannot be dismissed and she cannot be threatened. What are they going to do to her now? Having lived her worst nightmare, what more does she have to fear?

YPT Summer Workshop "Bye, Bye, Birdie" (Cast Two)

I saw most of the Friday night performances of "Bye, Bye, Birdie" at the Varsity Theater. Most of lead actresses switched roles from last week, so in some sense it was a new show. Arriving late, I missed the technical problems with lights and set changes, plus the guy yammering on his cell phone in the break-out area, so I really can't comment on all that.

The guys seemed to do much better this week than last (with the exception of John Ramos, who was already good and thus had little room for improvement). Ryan Warren as Albert, Julien Biewer-Elstob as Birdie, and Jordan Ferris as Hugo Peabody all improved considerably this week, given last week's experience. Despite a good first act, though, Julien was a bit too quiet in the second act, given the large space of the Varsity Theater to fill with song.

I thought that Katherine Vanderford, who played Rosie Alvarez last week, set a very high standard for this week's Rosie, Kayla Berghoff, to meet. Kayla proved to be a superb actress and singer, though, so it's really hard to say who might have been best: Kayla had a bit more poise and Katherine had a bit more charisma. Both are excellent at their craft!

I guess a lot of the lead actresses have more stage experience than I counted on for a summer workshop: several come from River City Theater Company (RCTC), or otherwise have impressive resumes. They are kind-of intimidating, with their catalog of strengths!

Once again, Julia Soto did an excellent good job as Albert's mother, Mae Peterson. I like watching Julia's control and discipline, her careful movements, her mannerisms. I hope I see more of her on stage in the years ahead. Anna Miles played an enthusiastic Kim MacAfee. Jessica Greenstreet played a crowd-pleasing, excitable Gloria Rasputin. It was distracting to see Hailee Ketchum-Wiggins in an ensemble role - she distracts by being such a good performer.

For me, one weakness of the show is the oversimplified choreography. Maybe there just isn't enough time in a summer workshop to put together something more challenging. Plus, dance steps are hard for the youngest cast members to memorize - in general, from ballet, I find that kids should be older than 12 to really have a good shot at getting the steps (and there were a number in the cast younger than that age).

In any event, there are just a few performances left - see it while you can!

Heading West

The western forecast wins! National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now calling for Katrina to go for Biloxi, MS. Interestingly, NOGAPS is moving west as well, calling for landfall on the southwestern side of the Mississippi delta. The storm is picking up strength, but it is also moving forward much more slowly than previously forecast. Landfall is now forecast by NHC to be 8 p.m. Monday.

In any event, it looks like Tampa is in the clear: no hurricane there this time!

Dreaming of Food

I'm beginning to push the diet harder. Last night, I went into aerobics rather food-deficient, and it was a real struggle getting through. Later on, I didn't sleep much - what - with caffeine, muscle aches and dreams of Progresso beef barley soup. But there is no question the diet is beginning to take hold: 6 pounds lost so far!

I'm beginning to get an insight on anorexic thinking. When I see a sandwich, I think "that sandwich is mocking me. Hah! I will mock the sandwich!" So we mock each other, testing each other's will. It's fun! I'm convinced anorexics have a rollicking good time, pushing the limits of denial.

Man Drought

Australia is deficient on more than just rain.

Message to Tampa, FL, Regarding Katrina and Weather Forecasting

Here is a very helpful blog: Central Florida Hurricane Center, which seems perfectly-suited for your current needs.

In regards to certain questions regarding how often forecasts are generated, and where one can check out the NOGAPS model....

Updates occur every twelve hours, 365 days a year. The U.S. National Weather Service sends up radiosondes by balloon every twelve hours from its network of stations, as do all Weather Services for all nations worldwide. The times are noon (labeled 12 Zulu, or 12Z) and midnight (labeled 00 Zulu, or 00Z) Greenwich Mean Time, which works out to 5 a.m. and 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. The data are quickly gathered, computers run, and several hours later, maps are updated to account for the new data.

I get NOGAPS (also abbreviated as NGP) model results at Monterey, California's Fleet Naval Meteorological and Oceanographic Center (FNMOC) Web Site. I access the loops by clicking on North America NGP in the upper-left-hand corner (GFS is another model), then click on the "loop" button for "Previous 12-hr Precipitation Rate [mm/12hr] and Sea Level Pressure [hPa]." At a minimum, I also check out the 500 millibar maps. My understanding is that NOGAPS is a baroclinic model and GFS is a barotropic model: barotropic models make some simplifying approximations regarding temperature gradients and are thus prone to error in some regards. My experience is that, even in the tropics, where temperature gradients are small, NOGAPS does a superior job with respect to the timing of events, which is really what hurricane path forecasting is all about. NOGAPS doesn't jump and swerve, like UKMET and some of the other models do. I notice that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) tends to poll models in order to make their path forecasts, which isn't a very good idea, since some models are simply better than others. It's like asking 50 people on the street where they think the storm is going to go, and weighing everyone's opinions equally. My experience is the GFS model watches too much TV: the NOGAPS model is better, and probably better than most of the other models.

Another helpful Web Site is Calvert Maryland's Center for Ocean-Land-Atmospheric Studies' (COLA's) Web Site. I worry a bit about the ETA model's tendency to have hurricanes wobble all over the place, but second opinions are always welcome.

Today, NOGAPS seems to be pushing Hurricane Katrina, west, towards the Mississippi delta, which is good for Tampa (and bad for Biloxi). For some reason, the Monday 12Z part of the loop is missing, making it hard to evaluate when the NOGAPS model run says Katrina begins angling NE (which it is bound to do sometime), so its hard to say how different it is than the NHC consensus. Nevertheless, it is probably reasonable to say that NOGAPS is west of the NHC consensus.

The question is, is the NOGAPS western forecast reasonable? By looping the NOGAPS loops repeatedly, and comparing them to the GFS loops, I think what NOGAPS is trying to say is that the midlatitude storm system currently moving through the northern Mississippi Valley (here is the Weather Channel map) is moving too rapidly eastwards to help Katrina angle NE - Katrina is simply too far away to be much affected by this fast-moving storm system. On the other hand, GFS says the storm system is moving at a stately pace, and will strongly affect Katrina's path. Catching the speed and magnitude of midlatitude storm systems is NOGAPS strength, and GFS' comparative weakness, and so right now I'd say - watch out Biloxi!

But, as always with all weather forecasting, the proof will be in the pudding!

Pushed South

As it crossed the Everglades, Katrina was pushed a little farther south than expected, which is very helpful for keeping the storm as far away as possible from Tampa. The storm has to make up that distance as it turns north, and that means it will be farther to the west when it finally passes Tampa Saturday night.

The NOGAPS model now is calling for the storm to make landfall around Pensacola, which is a little farther west than the official National Hurricane Center forecast landfall, with landfall mid-morning on Monday. Still, nothing is settled: rain intensity can vary dramatically so close to a hurricane's center - twenty miles one way or the other can make a big difference. So, Tampa might get lucky, and maybe the experience will be much like with Dennis: rain, clouds, but not so windy.

We'll see!

Katrina Cometh

Here's a map of several model-forecast paths for Katrina. The blue path closest to Tampa is the most likely - National Hurricane Center is choosing it for its forecast. I suspect it's a good forecast - the storm will hasten north to meet a trough moving through the eastern states, and since those mid-latitude troughs move fast, it will turn quickly. Intrusions of dry air are hampering development of the storm, which is good, but the storm will have a chance to strengthen again over the Gulf of Mexico.

Things will be uncomfortable in Tampa through Monday evening - a long time! Tampa will be the pivot point of the storm, as it changes direction from west to north, which means it will linger - and linger. Maximum wind forecast is still about 35 mph, but wind is unlikely to be the big challenge: there may be quite a lot of rain with this storm. I haven't seen a rainfall outlook yet, but it's likely to be high.

Whatever Became of John Trijonis?

Yesterday, a friend asked, "do you know John Trijonis?" I replied that I had talked to Trijonis once on the phone when I was in graduate school. If I recall (it was 20 years ago), Steve Baruch (cousin of a friend) had suggested I talk with Trijonis regarding career tips in environmental science. At the time, one of my Atmospheric Sciences professors had been very critical of Trijonis (criticism I took by flinging numerous sacks of granulated salt over my shoulder, since the professor had just started consulting with a major copper producer regarding visibility issues in the American Southwest), so I was curious about Trijonis. My friend sent me an update regarding Trijonis' career (written in Engineering and Science, in 2001).

The opening picture of the article completely blew my socks away! The picture comes from the balcony of the Foundation Room, high atop the Mandalay Bay Hotel, in Las Vegas. I had copied and published the identical picture in my Weblog in October, 2003. What a trip that had been - I had managed to secure a scarce invitation up to that topsy-turvy nightlife fantasyland! It was very confusing, though: for a second, I thought my Weblog had been published in Engineering and Science!

Turns out, Trijonis has become a professional gambler: specifically, a consultant on sports betting. He has been using his proficiency in data analysis, and mastery of arcane archives, to exploit small advantages in knowledge of sports events, for himself and his clients. With my interest in blackjack, it seemed like I was following in Trijonis' footsteps to some extent - similar arcs in life's trajectory, so to speak, although Trijonis uses his knowledge to the fullest, opposed to my use of magical incantations and the power of delusion. Similar arcs in life's trajectory, like Evel Knievel leaping the Snake River Gorge, except that Trijonis makes it to the opposite side, whereas I entertain myself in the river rapids. Trijonis didn't suggest blackjack as the wave of the future: winnings were headed downhill for that game, but the future of poker looked bright.

Trijonis had a number of useful observations regarding gambling. As late as 1996, Cache Creek Casino allowed people to bank (or host) games of blackjack: sweet! Trijonis points out the Achilles heel of banking:

Taking the banker role in such situations can yield a great mathematical edge to the professional gambler. One big problem with banking is that, unlike the situation with its own games, the casino host has little incentive to prevent cheating against a private banker, so that fraud and chicanery have severely pared (and in many cases eliminated) profits.

Who would have thunk? Cheating. In a casino. How dare those nasty players! And with my money! Glad I eventually found out without having to pay that price!

What about the mathematical and scientific literature regarding gambling? The stuff I read was either too simplified to be of much use in dealing with chaotic casino realities, or just too hard to usefully grasp:

Concern over competition also explains why there is little decent academic literature on gambling; the winners cannot afford to alert their opponents. (In 1980, Professor of Mathematics Gary Lorden wrote an excellent article for Engineering & Science explicating how you can maximize your chances for a windfall in casino games with the percentages against you. There is little or nothing written of comparable quality, however, on how to turn the tables on Las Vegas and get the percentages in your favor.) As to sports betting, I have come across a few articles in the scholarly literature, especially economics journals, but they have all bordered on the nonsensical—with a few far over the border. To paraphrase an old maxim: in gambling (as perhaps in stock and commodity trading), those who can, do; those who can’t, publish.

I will have to track down Lorden's article!

I especially liked Trijonis disquisition on environmental science, and gambling:

In air-pollution research, there are only two significant sources of funding— governmental agencies and private industries (basically, the polluting industries). In my perception, the government agencies essentially want to determine if there is a problem and what can be done about it. The polluting industries, on the other hand, often seem in deep denial. They tend to assert that (1) there is no problem, (2) even if a problem exists, they aren’t the cause, and (3) even if they were the cause, the nature of the problem is too uncertain to try to do anything about it. Being a product of the ’60s and a little quixotic, I could only bring myself to work on government studies. Unfortunately, the largest and most lucrative consulting contracts came from industry. This situation not only severely limited my income, but it meant that my research was, in my view, subject to incessant carping from industry scientists and their consultants. (It appeared to me that I was continually trying to defend a simple, reasonable $40,000 government study from red herrings raised by some multimillion-dollar industry project.) The gambling was a godsend, providing me a great income and an objective test that my way of interpreting data was truly correct.

Funny! Funny! Funny! This I can appreciate!

Anyway, all of this was a bit too much. There had been a good portent lately: a friend had recently had some luck with slots. Plus, I hadn't played since the beginning of the year. So last night, I drove up to Rocklin, to Thunder Valley Casino, to tempt the Goddess Fortuna.

At Thunder Valley, they pump music into the parking lot to soothe the nerves of the arriving and departing players - ambient music to calm the quarrelsome masses. When I arrived, they were playing Nelly Furtado's "Powerless," my favorite song from all of 2004. Another good omen - I could feel the stars aligning! After several hours, and experiencing four boom-and-bust blackjack cycles, I came away ahead: $915 - $215 = $700.

Tropical Storm Katrina

Aha! They have labelled this Tropical Storm Katrina. The new forecasts make this storm a lot stronger than the old forecasts did, with the storm generating in the Bahamas, crossing S. Florida, turning north, and then following a Dennis/Ivan like path into the Pensacola area. Currently the weather maps show Tampa just barely escaping without big problems, just like with Dennis, but it will be close (hopefully the storm won't be as powerful as Dennis - current forecasts don't show the same intensity).

Ka-Ching

DMTC received two short-term loans today for New Theater construction purposes: $200,000 from the Hoblits, plus an additional $20,000 from another source. The total amount of $220,000 will be conveyed to Harrison Construction, ASAP.

Webs

Is it just me, or is everyone experiencing 'Spiders Gone Wild?' I mean, webs blocking doorways, webs blocking sidewalks, spiders carefully attaching parked cars to nearby bushes? These construction efforts are quixotic and insignificant, and nothing at all like building a New Theater!

Suburban Shopping Center Architecture

There once was a time when American shopping center architecture was reviled worldwide for its bottom-line utilitarian functionality. These days, however, since that's where the money is going, shopping center architecture is getting arty - and weird. Here's what I mean (from Roseville, CA: Douglas Blvd. and Rocky Ridge Dr.). I mean, what is this stuff exactly?

Bravo Ristorante Italiano

Through MDF Productions, Andee Thorpe and others will be at Bravo Ristorante Italiano Thursday night (since Max's closed at Arden Fair, Sacramento needs more of evenings like this):

Need a Date Idea for Thursday Aug 25, or just want to try something new with your friends/family?

Consider dining out at Bravo Ristorante on Fair Oaks Boulevard in Sacramento, between 7 and 10PM!

The evening’s ambiance music entertainment will be provided by Andrea Eve Thorpe, with accompaniment by Paul Galloway, and special guest Jason Petit.

Bravo Ristorante is located at 2333 Fair Oaks Boulevard, between Howe and Fulton. The best landmark is that it is behind Swanson’s Cleaners. Bravo’s phone number is (916) 568-0494.

DMTC, 2020

•Brian Richard Sullivan
•Born August 22nd, 2005 at 3:15 AM
•5.0 lbs and 18.5 inches

Sunset From the Spaceship Columbia

Friends Julia and Fred sent this photo by E-Mail, with the enclosed caption. One Web Page with more information is here. One great photo, from Space Shuttle Columbia STS-107 (Jan. 16 -Feb. 01, 2003)!


The photograph attached was taken by the crew on board the Columbia during its last mission, on a cloudless day.

The picture is of Europe and Africa when the sun is setting. Half of the picture is in night. The bright dots you see are the cities' lights.

The top part of Africa is the Sahara Desert. Note that the lights are already on in Holland, Paris, and Barcelona, and that's it's still daylight in Dublin, London, Lisbon, and Madrid.

The sun is still shining on the Strait of Gibraltar. The Mediterranean Sea is already in darkness.

In the middle of the Atlantic Ocean you can see the Azores Islands; below them to the right are the Madeira Islands; a bit below are the Canary Islands; and further south, close to the farthest western point of Africa, are the Cape Verde Islands.

Note that the Sahara is huge and can be seen clearly both during Daytime and night time.

To the left, on top, is Greenland, totally frozen.

"Thou Shalt Not Kill"

Founder of the Christian Coalition of America, Pat Robertson, has had enough of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and wants U.S. operatives to kill him:

You know, I don't know about this doctrine of assassination, but if he thinks we're trying to assassinate him, I think that we really ought to go ahead and do it. It's a whole lot cheaper than starting a war.

These things tend to work both ways, Pat. Are you prepared to pay the ultimate price to make your point?

Chautauqua Playhouse's "Lend Me A Tenor"

Here's a nice note from Lenore and Gil Sebastian:

Greetings, friends! Lenore & Gil are at it again, this time with a madcap, crazy farce called LEND ME A TENOR at Chautauqua Playhouse in Carmichael. No, it’s not a musical, it’s a fast-paced, six-door farce. It’s about opera folk, and you know how meshugenah they can be! It’s 1934, and the Cleveland Grand Opera Company has hired world-famous tenor Tito Merelli to perform his signature role of Otello for their gala season opening. Through a series of hilarious mishaps, Tito can’t go on! Who can replace him? Come & find out!

Gil is directing, and the cast includes old favorites Rodger Hoopman, Jeff Labowitch, Paul Fearn, Erin Jones, Savannah Scott, and Lenore (as the high-strung Signora Merelli!), along with wonderful newcomer Kevin Carvalho as Max.

We open this Friday, August 26th, and run Fridays & Saturdays @ 8:00 thru October 1st. There are only three Sunday matinees @ 2:00: September 11, 18 & 25. Tickets are $15 general, $13 students/seniors. There are only 95 seats in this theater, so get your tickets soon! Call Chautauqua Playhouse at (916) 489-7529 or go to their work-in-progress website: http://www.cplayhouse.com/. Gil & I promise you a very entertaining, laugh-filled afternoon/evening!

Hugs, LENORE & GIL

Merck Fantasyland

It's amazing that Merck doesn't quite realize how bad the Vioxx law suit blowback will be. Merck utterly corrupted the scientific review process for the drug, and so a bad verdict in court shouldn't have come as a surprise, but they seem to think they can just talk their way out of the problem. That's the hubris comes from out-of-control corporate power!

Mr. Lanier offered jurors a trove of company documents and e-mail messages that revealed how Merck researched Vioxx's heart risks and presented what it knew to doctors and consumers. The documents showed that scientists at Merck were worried about Vioxx's potential cardiovascular risks as early as 1997, two years before Merck began selling the drug.

...They showed Dr. Scolnick later referring to scientists at the Food and Drug Administration as untrustworthy. And they revealed that Merck had stridently resisted the F.D.A.'s efforts to add warnings to Vioxx's label, and that it eventually complied only in ways that the Texas jury found unacceptably obscure. ("You had to dig three levels to see it," one juror, Lorraine Blas, said of the potential heart problems described in one version of the drug's labeling material.)

Mr. Lanier also introduced a marketing videotape that showed Merck sales representatives being trained to view doctors' concerns about Vioxx's heart risks as "obstacles" to be avoided or dismissed. Another marketing document taught representatives to play "Dodgeball" when doctors voiced concerns.

... In interviews, several jurors said they had intended the verdict, which included $229 million in punitive damages, not to reward Mrs. Ernst but to punish Merck for its actions. Derrick Chizer, one of the jurors, said that the jury wanted to send Merck and the drug industry a message: "Stop doing the minimum to put your drug on the market." Other jurors made similar comments.

The $229 million punitive damages figure was not picked at random, but referred to a 2001 Merck estimate of additional profit the company might make if it could delay an F.D.A. warning on Vioxx's heart risk. Mr. Lanier mentioned that monetary figure in his closing argument.

Dr. Jerry Avorn, a professor at Harvard Medical School and frequent critic of the drug industry, said he was not surprised that the jury responded as vehemently as it did.

"Even as a seasoned observer of drug company affairs, I have been surprised at the way Merck handled the emerging evidence about cardiac risk with this drug," Dr. Avorn said. "There was an element of the Watergate tapes that I was reminded of: many people had been critical of Nixon for a long time, but even Nixon's critics did not expect to find the documentation of their worst fears made so clearly evident."

... But many provocative documents, such as the e-mail messages in which Merck scientists discussed their early concerns about Vioxx, are clearly relevant to the litigation and will be allowed everywhere. And unless Merck can quickly figure out how to explain those documents to juries, it will soon face an enormous problem. Even Merck, with $22 billion in sales and $6 billion in profits last year, can withstand only so many $250 million verdicts before it is forced to rethink its plan to fight every Vioxx lawsuit.

I Like the Headline

Critics Say Soda Policy for Schools Lacks Teeth

Cindy Sheehan

Gets attention, because she is a white woman and a victim.

Disability Insurance

I wonder if its degrading to the point where it's becoming a scam?

Until a few years ago, Debra Potter made sure that her family could cruise the Caribbean, watch the NFL on big-screen TV and keep her elderly mother and in-laws at home in comfort.

She did so by earning $250,000 a year selling more insurance than almost anybody else in the state of Virginia, virtually all of it disability and health policies that she thought put a safety net under middle-class and affluent families such as her own.

Potter so believed in the protection she was providing that she made sure she was covered under a policy her employer, Southeastern financial services giant BB&T, had with UnumProvident Corp., the nation's largest disability insurer.

But when Potter began falling down in 2002 and was subsequently diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, she discovered that the protection didn't work anything like she'd expected.

... The $10.5-billion-a-year insurer denies mishandling Potter's case, saying only that "new information" caused it to change its position and start paying.

"People need safety nets, and that's what I thought I was selling them," Potter said. "But here I am with all my knowledge of insurance and I couldn't make it work for me."

Whatever Became of Harold Holt?

Antipodean weirdness:

Some theories suggest the CIA assassinated Mr Holt before he could pull Australian troops out of Vietnam; or he ran off with a lover; or he committed suicide.

The most popular one was British author Anthony Grey's claim that Mr Holt was actually a Chinese spy who fled in a Chinese submarine.

... Mr Holt was with four friends on Cheviot beach, including secret lover Marjorie Gillespie.

"I watched Harold continuously and the water became turbulent around him very suddenly and seemed to boil and these conditions seemed to swamp him," Ms Gillespie told police, according to the brief of evidence tendered to the court.

Alan Stewart was the other person in the group who decided to go swimming, but only ventured out 10m because he was wary of the conditions.

Eastern Gulf of Mexico

From the numerical weather forecasts, there are some indications that a tropical depression may generate in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, immediately adjacent to Tampa, by next weekend. The system would likely be weak while in the Tampa area, probably wouldn't pick up that much strength, and would drift away to the northwest. But it's just another reminder that the season is still quite active.

YPT Summer Workshop "Bye, Bye, Birdie" (Cast One)

I saw portions of the Friday and Saturday night performances of "Bye, Bye, Birdie" at the Varsity Theater. Nice show, particularly considering some of the technical pressures: DMTC could not afford more than the bare-minimal stage rehearsal time on the now-pricier Varsity Theater stage, and the Summer Workshops in general have always had less rehearsal time available overall than YPT shows usually have. Nevertheless, the show looked better-rehearsed than the "Bye, Bye, Birdie" Summer Workshop three years ago, and the set looked very nice indeed (the sparkling 45 rpm record emblem on the set was painted in the form of a "Z", an inadvertent, unconscious tribute to Jan Isaacson's favorite television hero from the early 60's, "Zorro").

It was interesting to watch the cast portraying characters considerably older than themselves. That's when the actor's craft gets tested: inhabiting another person's life, and living through it. For Cast One (Cast Two next week) Ryan Warren played Albert Peterson and Katherine Vanderford played Rosie Alvarez.

Ryan Warren dressed in a very professional manner, and played Albert in a professional way as well. From the back of the theater, he looked a bit like film actor Tony Roberts, who was cast in several movies as Woody Allen's calm, professional foil: remember, 'Rob' from "Annie Hall", listening to neurotic 'Alvy Singer' (Woody Allen) as he explained the day's latest outrage?

You know, I was having lunch with some guys from NBC, so I said, 'Did you eat yet or what?' And Tom Christie said, 'No, JEW?' Not 'Did you?'...JEW eat? JEW? You get it? JEW eat

Anyway, 'Rob' thought 'Alvy Singer' was imagining things. So, to me, Ryan's Albert was more like calm 'Rob' than neurotic 'Alvy', but the script seemed to call for more of a neurotic. So, I worried about that a bit, but what I did like was that Ryan and Katherine worked together very well as a couple, and so some of my concerns were allayed.

Katherine seemed to have trouble establishing herself in the First Act, when she had to share the spotlight with other people, but once she became 'Spanish Rose', and was clearly, unmistakably identified as the star, she began enjoying herself (I think Katherine likes being the star!)

Julia Soto did a very good job with Albert's mother, Mae Peterson. Despite her young age, Julia effectively captured the pressures of aging, and the threat posed by Rosie. I liked Julia's crisp diction. Julia's performance was much different than Savannah Scott's brilliant, raging, over-the-top Mae Peterson from the Summer Workshop three years ago. Nevertheless, I think Julia got much closer to the essence of the character than Savannah did. Excellent job!

John Ramos was a very winning Mr. MacAfee: very pleasant and enjoyable to watch on stage. Jessica Greenstreet played Mrs. MacAfee very well: lots of smiling suburban housewife energy (the epitome of the 1950's ideal) was evident. And this was the first time I've seen Hailee Ketchum-Wiggins perform in an way that could be clearly evaluated (unfortunately, I missed Wizard of Oz in the spring). Just perfect! She's a real asset to Sacramento-area theater!

Cast Two will perform, with some of the actors (the girls particularly) trading places. It will be fun to see how a different mix of personalities deal with the same acting challenges!

(insert pictures, when available).

Right-Wing Attacks on the Families of the Dead

Joe Conason is right: the American right-wing overreacted to Cindy Sheehan, and descended to really vile depths to slime her. The reason they did so is that Cindy Sheehan and mothers like her are the Republicans' Achilles Heel:

Whatever Sheehan has said or done, the real problem for the right is her demand that the president address questions for which he and his conservative allies have no convincing answers. He cannot explain the shifting rationale for the war that has cost the lives of Casey Sheehan and thousands of others. He cannot explain why the war was so poorly planned. He cannot explain why he has no plausible exit strategy.

For the right as much as for the left, Sheehan is a symbol. She represents a growing threat to Republicans, who fear that they will pay a heavy electoral price next year for the unjustified and unnecessary bloodshed in Iraq. And that is why, from the beginning, Bush's defenders have tried to change the subject to her supposed mistakes and misstatements. They would far prefer to mock and malign her than to talk about the supposed reasons that her son and so many other innocents are dead.

For reasons that escape me (probably because I blog), I'm on the Wall Street Journal's OpinionJournal E-Mail alert list. One example of the vile character assassination the Wall Street Journal engaged in was how they forwarded Tom McMahon's denigration of Cindy Sheehan's sacrifice by trying to equate it with light-weight Hollywood preoccupations: Cindy Crawford vs. Cindy Sheehan in Crawford. Get it? Ha, ha!

When I was a kid, growing up in New Mexico, we would often come across insects, but every so often we would dig up a very rare insect called an Earthbaby. Earthbabies were so ugly and ominous-looking that we would wouldn't take the time to smash them like other insects: we would run in fear and loathing. That's what I felt like when I came across this McMahon character. I don't know who he is or what he is: I just know he's an unspeakably-vile Earthbaby, and one MUST run!

The Wall Street Journal also approvingly quotes a blogger named Scott Randolph, who seems to feel that since Iraq is an accomplished, inevitable intervention now, there's nothing anyone can do anything about it, and it's time to just stop complaining about it:

I hate the fact that our boys are getting killed over there, and I wish it didn't have to happen. But, it is, there's nothing we can do about it, except for doing everything we can to offer support and hope to the folks fighting over there. Arguing and whining about the reasons we're there, and the need to come home not only kills morale, but it is a complete waste of time.

Wow! This fatalistic response is SO out-of-character for the Wall Street types to approve! The Masters of the Universe, who are always bloviating about how they make history, not follow it, suddenly have their hands tied! Who could have imagined such impotence?

Before Cindy Sheehan, there was Lila Lipscomb (from Fahrenheit 9/11). After Cindy Sheehan and Lila Lipscomb, there are thousands of relatives who want answers, and who will demand them. I am with them. Are you?

Gravity

Gravity, finally explained. Every word, God's own truth!:

"Things fall not because they are acted upon by some gravitational force, but because a higher intelligence, 'God' if you will, is pushing them down," said Gabriel Burdett, who holds degrees in education, applied Scripture, and physics from Oral Roberts University.

Hell Hath No Fury Like A Filipina Ripped Off

The Texan twins, Hal and Al, explained it pretty carefully. They were offering only $60 for the washer/dryer, and $2 for the portable heaters, because that's what the market would bear. Besides, the space saved by moving the stuff out would allow a move into a smaller storage unit, thus saving money. And who could argue with that? It's just business.....right? Right?

They got the washer/dryer (necessity), but not the portable heaters (pride).

More Tales of Sacramento At Night

Last night, Sparky and I walked past a nice house with a perfectly-manicured lawn. There was some kind of party going on inside. Just as we walked past, the front door opened, a handsome man in his 30's came out of the house, fell like a tree on the perfect lawn, and started throwing up.

Sparky wisely chose to keep on walking, but I started thinking about how the man's private drunkenness had inadvertently become public, and about public drunkenness in general in California, compared to Utah. Alcohol sure helped make the move jarring when I first came to Sacramento from Salt Lake City in 1990. My first day of work, I went to the bus stop in Citrus Heights, and found a man there drinking beer - at 8 a.m.: never see that in Salt Lake City!

Here in Sacramento, I'd go to to the supermarket and ask, "why was there such a wider range of consumer choices in Utah, rather than this richer California place?" Then you'd walk around the corner and see the vast floor space of the store wasted on beer, wine, and spirits. The answer was obvious - alcohol crowded out consumer products, so instead of, say, eight different kinds of batteries, you could get only three kinds.

Utah law mildly harrasses alcohol drinkers. Alcohol is sold ONLY in state liquor stores, and bright, splashy advertising displays there are banned. Scarce night clubs allow members-only drinking, and even though it's laughably easy to get someone to sponsor your entry into the club, it places an additional barrier to easy entry into the club. Mixed drinks cannot be sold: if you want a mixed drink, they sell you the components, which you have to mix yourself. When it became wide knowledge that limousine services were serving alcohol to Salt Lake City residents riding to distant stateline Nevada casinos, it became a scandal, and the Utah legislature passed a law specifically banning the practice.

The official harrassment in Utah is certainly not enough to deter serious alcoholics, but it does help place a stigma on the drinking of liquor. California, the epicenter of one of the world's greatest viticultures (oh my God! take a look at the Napa Valley!), DOES NOT place a stigma on the sale and consumption of alcohol. The net effect is much more public drunkenness in California compared to Utah. Sometimes the effect is amusing: in 1990, the Salt Lake City TV stations carried lurid specials on the seediness of State Street - any major thoroughfare in Sacramento is seedier than State Street!

I love California's liberality, but I also like Utah's liquor laws. That extra Mormon touch keeps a place nice. I'm sure it helps keep Las Vegas, Nevada nicer than it could be. Las Vegas is one of Mormonism's most important cities, but it is also one of the world's greatest dens of sin. There is a tremendous cultural clash there, and I'm sure there is a price to pay for that. Still, keep that tension - keep the neighborhoods clean and safe, and the Strip fraught with illicit danger, and everyone will be happy!