Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up

For months now, it's clear there's been an effort on California Talk Radio to push illegal immigration to the top of the stack of hot-button issues. For example, Mark Williams at Sacramento's KFBK AM-1530 has done his best over the last three months to push the issue forwards. Illegal immigration does frustrate numerous Californians, and can periodically be tapped as a source of political heat. Nevertheless, despite Arnold Schwarzenegger's invitation to the Arizona Minutemen to come to California to patrol the Mexican border, there's little sign that populist fervor has been raised much in the electorate. The campaign is very much a top-down campaign.

Campaigns become populist crusades when the popular voice is frustrated in one way or another. A perfect example is when Gray Davis successfully interfered with the 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary, securing the nomination for Dick Simon, who proved weak in the fall 2002 campaign. Populist rage, boiling everywhere since the 2001 electrictiy deregulation debacle, boiled over when it could not be vented at the polls. The boiling was most evident in the Republican camp, of course, but extended to Democrats as well. The 2003 California Recall Election, very much a bottom-up sort of campaign, resulted from voter frustrations.

Numerous propositions regarding immigration restrictions have made it to the polls in recent years (most notably Proposition 187 in 1994). The campaigns generally fail at their task of slowing illegal immigration, however, because the only really effective tool (levying severe penalties on employers of illegal aliens) is never presented as an alternative to the voters (too hard on the business community that sponsors most of these campaigns). Nevertheless, the issue HAS made it, repeatedly, to the polling place, and will assuredly do so in the future, in one guise or another. True populist rage on the issue can't really gel, however, unless it is frustrated. The unsatisfactory status-quo simply continues.

So, it's interesting to read Mark Chapin Johnson, a member of the Board of Overseers at the Hoover Institution, and CEO of Chapin Medical Company, discuss the issue in today's Wall Street Journal. In a curious, passive tone (very curious, passive tone, since he surely knows better), Johnson indicates that *things, you know, stuff!* will happen shortly in crazy California that will make illegal immigration the next populist crusade:

And now, ever so quietly and subtly, I sense that possibly another sea-change may come about. For all the flak Pete Wilson took for promoting Proposition 187, and for how it alienated the Latino community, his push resonated with a very large and frightened WASP middle class....I sense a deep and intensely growing concern and fear that illegal immigrants are completely overwhelming our state infrastructure.

Same as it has ever been! But surely, Johnson knows that the only leverage the business community and others will have to exploit this fear will be pour money into a campaign: by definition, a top-down campaign. Johnson continues:

The daily drumbeat of proposed higher taxes being needed from hard-working citizens to support medical services and K-12 education for a flood of illegals is enraging the average voter.

That's funny, I thought the recent daily drumbeat was that higher taxes, at least at the state level, weren't going to be required, at least this year. According to The Sacramento Bee:

The budget for the 2005-06 fiscal year avoids the borrowing that has plagued the state in recent years and does not raise taxes. It sets money aside to pay off some of the state's debt and increases funding to most programs, including $3 billion more for schools and $1.3 billion for road projects.

Damn inconsistent drum! Rhythmless Johnson then engages in wishful thinking:

This issue is one of those occasional, unique circumstances that can so suck all the air out of the other political discourse in California that budgets, education, and infrastructure may simply fade to the back pages while the "stop the illegals" debate takes over the front pages.

Only if the business community is willing to pay advertising rates for the front pages!

If this scenario takes traction, as it appears it will, the issue will be the only one that drives the next statewide election.

Maybe, but unlikely. Remember, if Latinos get as worked up again as they did over Proposition 187, the boomerang impact on the business community might be considerable. But I must defer to those who have the privilege of better information about the coming campaign. Tell us, Mr. Johnson, about the upcoming campaign you surely know more about! Speak so we all can hear, oh, monied Voice of the People!

Ganga Giri

Australian-influenced tribal techno artist, will appear at The Gathering, Saturday Sept 24 (9am - 9pm) and Sunday Sept 25 (9am - 6pm), 8990 Kruithoff Way, Fair Oaks, CA (off Hazel between Winding Way and Sunset) at VFW Post 6158.

Dean and Nigel

Just trying to blend in.

Dennis Resets Sunken Ship

Acting as an artificial reef at Key Largo.

Clever

Arizona Democrats begin to equate Rove to DeLay in regards to fundraising:

Democrats are pressing for Rove to be fired or sanctioned and want Kyl to return funds from the Rove events. Rove has not been charged and Republicans are insisting that he did not disclose Plame's name.

"We urge Jon Kyl to do the right thing and return the campaign contributions he received at his event with Karl Rove," said DSCC communications director Phil Singer.

Zell Miller, Common Thief

That asinine former Governor of Georgia who converted to the Republicans:

The story, broken by an Atlanta television reporter named Dale Cardwell, is that Miller took home a $60,000 balance in the Governor's Mansion account upon leaving office. Speaking through a flack, Miller admitted taking the money, and claims it was part of his compensation as Governor. But Cardwell quickly and definitively established otherwise, by contacting every other living former Governor, along with legal and budget officials from both political parties. Looks like Miller is totally busted, though it's not yet clear he'll be prosecuted so long as he coughs up the funds pronto.

Dreams N' Stuff Productions

So this is where Capitol Opera's 'Broadway Bound' series is going! Courtesy of Dan Lee:

Subject: Dan Lee is Pharaoh Again

Yes, I am reprising my modest role as the Pharaoh in
"Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat." It's
a small, but colorful part.

With the reorganization of Capitol Opera, the Broadway
Bound series has gone off on its own under the new
name "Dreams N' Stuff Productions." Their first show
will be "Joseph" at Congregation Beth Shalom this
Saturday. Here are the details.

Show: Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat
Dates and Times: July 16 - July 31, Saturdays at 8:00
pm, Sundays at 3:30 pm and 7:00 pm.
Location: Congregation Beth Shalom, 4746 El Camino
Avenue, Carmichael, CA 95608 (between Mission and
Walnut)
Admission: $10 all seats

Come see me do Elvis again.

Dan

How Did Rove Learn About Plame?

The simplest answer (and, all things being equal, usually the best answer to any mystery) is that President Bush himself informed Karl Rove that Valerie Plame was CIA, and directed the smear himself.

Shades of Watergate!

My Bad

Questions of etiquette.... The auto driver sat astride the unmarked crosswalk, trying to turn onto J Street (one way) from 22nd. Instead of crossing 22nd on foot in front of his vehicle, I crossed behind, so as to allow him to turn when traffic permitted. Apparently the driver felt he had inched too far forwards. While I was directly behind his car, I saw the reverse lights come on, and was barely able to jump out of the way as he punched the gas in reverse: I dropped my newspaper. Apparently that was when he thought to check his rear-view mirror, and noticed me in distress. When he rolled down his window to ask after my health, I said "your car is on top of my newspaper." He was relieved and went on his way, but I could have been hurt. I wonder what I SHOULD have said to him?

Dealing With Tech Support

What, oh what, do 'Merican systems managers do at work all day?

A DMTC Dream

Last night, I dreamt that I was pushing a shopping cart through the Safeway in Davis, when I met Arthur Vassar pushing a shopping cart in the other direction. I asked if he would partner me as I did a double pirouette. The pirouette went well but something went wrong with the finish: Arthur stumbled off with a wrenched back, and I fell into a large vat of Cocoa Puffs.

I don't know what it means either.

Lions, Tigers, and Bears

Oh my! And in the middle of Indiana too!

Everybody's a Critic

The Pope and Harry Potter:

"It is good, that you enlighten people about Harry Potter, because those are subtle seductions, which act unnoticed and by this deeply distort Christianity in the soul, before it can grow properly," wrote Cardinal Ratzinger.

London Bombers

Perhaps British-born men of Pakistani descent.

Cursor Love Bunny Good

Not for the shaky!

Pheonix Has A Website

Nice, personalized home on the Web!


(Photo of Pheonix Vaughn by 521 Productions, 2005)

Be All You Can Be

The 135 Candidates of 2003 Soldier On!

According to The Carpetbagger:

If scandal-ridden Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) runs for re-election, as he claims he will, he'll have to deal with a primary challenge for the first time in his career. Businessman George Schwartzman, who runs a health records management company, announced yesterday that he will take on Cunningham next year.

George Schwartzmann - he ran as one of the 135 candidates in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election!

Rove's Comeuppance

For a guy who supposedly won so much political capital in 2004, Bush looks bankrupt this year, and Rovism is why:

Whatever happens to Rove, though, the Rove system has had not just a bad week, but a bad year. The Plame smear was very much in keeping with the Rove system, which is as much as anything else a sort of postmodern way of managing beliefs: vague possibilities can be asserted as absolute certainties; things known to be false -- such as the Niger-uranium story -- can be maintained as at least possibilities.

The real test of the Rove System has come in the policy fights of 2005, particularly the Social Security reform battle. No president before Bush would have run the reelection campaign that Bush ran in 2004, focused entirely on destroying his opponent, for the reason that it would give him no mandate to govern. The Rove System changed that rule. It says, do what it takes to win, and political capital comes with winning, coupled with being a wartime president and making whatever assertions about facts and possibilities are necessary to win. (Bush gave much of the system away in his post-election press conference.) But that has turned out to be wrong. Bush couldn't simply assert a mandate for policies that he had barely mentioned in the campaign, and certainly had not put to the electoral test. And as the command-and-control structure of the Rove System begins to come apart, it will come apart absolutely.

Non-Toxic Frog Glue

Apparently non-toxic glue exuded by this friendly little Australian notaden (or Holy Cross) frog might be pretty handy:

The CSIRO estimated the market potential for use in wound closure was more than $1 billion, and for hemostats (agents that stop bleeding), more than $3 billion. (picture by Jo-Ann Robinson)

Bermuda High Strengthens

The Bermuda High over the North Atlantic finally strengthened this week to levels usually seen at the height of summer. There are two consequences of this strengthening:

• Developing Hurricane Emily is unlikely to approach the U.S. mainland. Earliest indications are that the storm will barrel across the Caribbean and hit Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula instead; and,
• The actual start and the formal start of the Southwest monsoon season occurred this year at about the same time (approximately July 10th). The monsoon looks like its starting quietly, though, so not much will happen for a few days.

(Art work by Deborah McMillion-Nering: the folks in Phoenix can hardly wait for the summer monsoon season to get going in earnest!)

A Relationship, Not Just A Wallet

Paperwight makes a good point at how the Democratic National Committee and other mainstream Democratic organizations just don't get E-Mail and its proper use.

Self-Retraint...

Goes out the door with this consumer-friendly Parkinson's disease drug. Before you know it, the economists will make sure the drug gets placed in every city's water supply:

Dr. Leo Verhagen, a Parkinson's specialist ... says he and some colleagues all have a few patients who developed compulsive gambling while taking Mirapex, a drug that relieves tremors and stiffness. The behavior usually disappears when the drug dose is lowered, Verhagen said.

...California attorney Daniel Kodam, who filed the lawsuit last year, said he's spoken with more than 200 Mirapex patients who developed compulsive behaviors, including excessive gambling, sex and shopping.

...Mirapex was among top-selling Parkinson's drugs last year, with more than $200 million in U.S. sales, according to IMS Health, a pharmaceutical information and consulting firm.

Mirapex, or pramipexole, reduces tremors and the slow, stiff movements that are a hallmark of Parkinson's disease. It belongs to a class of drugs that mimic the effects of dopamine, a brain chemical that controls movement and is deficient in Parkinson's disease.

Mirapex targets dopamine receptors in a brain region associated with emotions that include pleasure and reward-seeking behavior, Dodd said. It can also cause extreme sudden sleepiness.

...Though a few of the Mayo patients took related drugs, Dodd said most used Mirapex. They included a 68-year-old man who lost more than $200,000 at casinos over six months and a 41-year-old computer programmer who became "consumed" with Internet gambling, losing $5,000 within a few months.

What Tangled Webs We Weave!

Did Robert Luskin, Karl Rove's lawyer, inadvertently blow the Plame case wide open by giving desperate Matt Cooper an honorable way out of going to prison?

Remember, it's not a great leap from 'Joe Wilson's wife' to 'Valerie Plame': she's apparently listed as his wife in "Who's Who in America."

Be Loud, Be Proud!

Conservatives win when they force liberals to cower out of a fear of social disapproval. Don't do conservatives' work for them! This problem seems especially rife in ultra-conformist, power-mad Washington, D.C.: thank goodness this isn't a big West Coast problem! Never be ashamed about what you think! Be loud, be proud! We aren't in high school anymore, and you don't have to worry about what the jocks think! No one respects liars and dissemblers, and certainly not your fellow liberals. Look at how your bowing and scraping is being portrayed in the conservative press today!

In a desperate bid to sanitize his gathering and control how its attendees would be perceived by the POST, the MOVEON host emailed talking points to his guests. A copy of those talking points was obtained by the DRUDGE REPORT.

Fazio warned his guests: “Its very important that if you talk to the reporter, you stay on message. Remember, it is quite possible that our event will be the one the POST uses to represent the entire MoveOnPac effort this weekend.”

The key message for the event: “The momentum is finally shifting away from extremism. We will not accept a extremist nominee. This is not about conservatism vs liberalism or Republicans vs Democrats, this is all about extremism vs moderation and we're on the side of moderation.”

The MOVEON host reminded his guests: “We don't want to come across as leftist, liberal activists. We want to come across as we are - regular folks who are finally saying enough is enough to the extremists; that we're not falling for their extremist rhetoric anymore and we're finally going to expend the effort necessary to get our country back.”

Fazio: “Please stay on message and just know that ANYTHING you say can be taken out of context and used against the effort.”

One last suggestion from Fazio to his liberal MOVEON party-goers: “Oh, because a photographer will be here, might I suggest we put away our ‘Bush is a Liar’ t-shirts. Let's look like they do.”

General Facts About Emphysema

Here is an informative, but very general, slide show about lung disease, aimed specifically at the occupational risks endured by British coal miners, but there are a few references to emphysema here as well.

Apparently even non-smokers will develop emphysema eventually, just from exposure to germs, air pollution, and the degradation of age, perhaps reaching disability level around age 130 - 150, or so (if other things didn't put us in our grave first).

For example, an FEV1 reading of 0.8 liters is about 20% of the healthy 25-year-old reading of about 4 liters (slide 3). According to slide 4, a 20% reading is approximately halfway between the level of disability (about 30%), and death (about 8%). Judging from the curves, with such a reading, a person might be expected to have about three years left to live.

Dennis Spelled Backwards Is 'Sinned,'

Political satire revolving around late Hurricane Dennis.

It's still too early to say much about Tropical Depression #5: it seems to have a similar track as Dennis to start with, but maybe slightly more southerly. Plus, the Bermuda High may be stronger by the time it gets into position to affect the U.S. (which might mean a storm heading for Texas instead). But it's still too early to say with any confidence - these are just the early hints. Yesterday, it looked like #5 would dissipate altogether, but today's forecasts show it surviving into the Caribbean, where it can engage in mischief. Still, total dissipation is still an option, should Mother Nature choose it.

Dennis Smacks Pensacola

I'm glad to hear that everything went well in Tampa, with relatively small problems (I'm hoping they are small problems) in St. Petersburg. I was disappointed that the storm never went as far west as I thought it was going to go, but rather seemed to make a bee line from Havana to Pensacola, swinging west just far enough to avoid causing you too much aggravation. That's hard on Pensacola: getting direct hits from two major hurricanes on two succeeding years.

What was nice this year was that the meteorologists were mostly of one mind about the storm's direction, and just quibbled about details. We didn't have the same tension as with Ivan last year, wondering whether the storm would make an abrupt change of direction with little notice.

My hopes and prayers are with the people near Pensacola. Signing off until the next tropical depression!

Mad Hot Ballroom

'Mad Hot Ballroom' is a thoroughly charming movie (showing now at the Crest), dramatizing the trials and tribulations of New York City 10-and 11-year-olds in learning ballroom dancing, and competing (featuring Ann Reinking as a judge in the finals competition).

Here is an interesting article about clearing the copyrighted music for use in the film.

After the movie, a gothish crowd was gathering for the Trash Film Orgy's midnight showing of 'An American Werewolf in London.' I lingered briefly in the lobby, partly out of curiosity, because Trash Film Orgy out-competes me regularly on the Sacramento's Top 25, and partly to see if I knew anyone there. At the far end of the lobby, helpful young people spanked those needing discipline; in the middle of the lobby, a hydraulic-powered werewolf lunged forward and snapped its teeth; at the near end of the lobby, Mr. Lobo of the 'Insomnia' cable TV show sold T-Shirts (I bought one). After the ballroom movie, I felt more like Dr. Jekyll than Mr. Hyde, though, so I gingerly excused myself and slipped past the Werewolf Girls and the cops.

Sparky's Visit to "Canine Cottage"


Before


After

Passing Tampa

So close to the beast! Hope things are OK in Tampa!

The ETA model forecast shows Dennis taking a sharp jog west on Sunday night, perfectly aimed to bring the storm into Lake Ponchartrain, LA. Could get ugly there.

Dennis Inches Westwards

Dennis looks like it's inching westwards. The National Hurricane Center discussion sounds confused. The NOGAPS and ETA models are looking at landfall in the Gulfport, Mississippi area: still, the GFS model thinks the Alabama coast will receive landfall.

You may have already seen the most intense rain you are likely to get in Tampa, FL, but there are many more hours of steady rain ahead. And the heaviest winds so far look like they were 21 mph or so, with gusts to 30 mph.

So, it's another rainy night in Tampa. It could have been so much worse, of course. New Orleans and vicinity tomorrow night will not be a happy place.

Here is the confused portion of that NHC discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

Children's Hospital

Kylie makes her first public appearance in nearly two months, and in Melbourne, of all places.

Close Call

Ye gods! I recognize the names of long-time DMTC enthusiasts in this passenger list. Good thing harm was avoided!

Diane Peters doesn't consider herself a hero.

But the Davis resident was in the minority Thursday at Atria Covell Gardens, where the senior facility's activity assistant was the recipient of numerous hugs for her role in avoiding a head-on collision the day before.

Peters, who turns 40 today, was driving a passenger-filled tour bus that narrowly missed striking a wrong-way driver on County Road 102 near Woodland.

Nunsense

Starting July 15th at the Woodland Opera House, featuring Kelly Daniells, Nancy Agee, and Beth Nilsen (and Pam Kay Lourentzos' choreography)!

Dennis Update

The eye of Dennis is now over water again. Most of the forecasts are nudging the storm track eastwards again, with landfall forecast to be near the Alabama Gulf Coast.

I'm mystified why the storm shouldn't head towards Louisiana rather than towards Pensacola, but I'm increasingly isolated on this point. I'm still hoping the hurricane will see reason and behave.

Lemmings?

What got to the sheep? Cognitive dissonance? Did they watch too much Fox News? Cloudy would have told them not to bother....

Knock Three Times...

and I'll tell you that I love you.... (this bear learns the ways of people).

Latest Dennis Ruminations

It's still going to be an uncomfortable Saturday night in Tampa, but some of the forecasting nuances have changed, with the forecasting camps switching sides. The NOGAPS and ETA models show Dennis heading farther west (NOGAPS with a Mississippi landfall: ETA with a Louisiana landfall). On the other hand, the GFS model shows the storm hugging the west Florida coast, with a panhandle Florida landfall. The National Hurricane Center is switching sides and going with the Florida coast huggers, but I suspect they may be wrong.

Much depends on whether the trough passing through the eastern U.S. can steer the storm along the western Florida coast, as they so frequently are capable of doing. At the moment, though, the northern and southern parts of the trough are desynchronizing in their eastward movement (the northern part moves faster than the southern part, which tends to leave the southern part an orphan trough). There is also, as part of the southern trough, a weak mid-level trough over eastern Texas, which isn't much, may be weakening, may hardly be there at all (kind of an artifact). It's not moving much, though, and I'm thinking the storm will be drawn westwards towards that, rather than slavishly following the northern trough, or will try to split the difference.

So, that's the good news at the moment (for west coast Floridians south of Tallahassee, but not for Louisianans, Mississippians, etc.)

24th Street Theater Story

In today's Sacramento Bee, featuring Michael McElroy (and even a shot of BBG himself!):


Runaway Stage Productions' rendition of Meredith Willson's "The Music Man" opened last weekend in Curtis Park's newly remodeled 24th Street Theatre. Since 2004, the Sierra Curtis Neighborhood Association has been raising funds for a $50,000 upgrade to the 290-seat theater. Besides newly restored seats, fresh paint on the walls and new carpeting, officials said work will continue on lighting and sound improvements. Sacramento Bee/Carl Costas


Michael McElroy portrays Harold Hill, a phony traveling salesman who plans to flimflam an Iowa town in 1912. Sacramento Bee/Carl Costas


Cast and crew prepare for last Saturday's show. The shows continue at 8 p.m. Fridays and Saturdays and 2 p.m. Sundays through July 24. Sacramento Bee/Carl Costas

Fox News Ghouls

Euphoric over the London attacks.

British Bombings

Recall that the Bush White House prematurely exposed an Al Qaeda double agent in London last August, most likely in order to improve its own electoral popularity. Could today's bombings have been prevented if Scotland Yard had been allowed to finish its investigation?

Dennis Update

Today's forecast shows Hurricane Dennis moving a little faster than yesterday's forecast did, and passing a little closer to Florida's west coast, heading towards an Alabama Gulf Coast landfall. 70 mph winds, Saturday night - Sunday morning in Tampa, so there's some potential for damage from flying debris. The heaviest rains will still be offshore, but it still looks like an unpleasant weekend.

Cave Balls

Yee-hah! Made it onto B3ta's Best page for this week's Question of the Week: "What hidden treasures have you uncovered?"

My story below concerns an occasional destination back in early college days: Ojo del Diablo Cave, in the broken foothills of the Jemez Mountains, a few miles west of San Ysidro, New Mexico:

The four of us had nearly finished scrambling through a New Mexico cave when we came across a clear pool blocking our path: we were forced to wade to the exit. We noticed the bottom of the pool was littered with numerous white balls.

The mystery began to gnaw on us: what were these ghostly, golfball-like spheres? We touched one ball, and the white coating suddenly popped and drifted away, leaving a central mudball-like core with what appeared to be little sticks poking out. In the flickering light, we could see there was some kind of strange gas streaming away from the mudball, which just deepened the mystery. We combined our brainpower to decipher the mudball's mystery.

It took a long, long time, passing the mudball back and forth from hand to hand, sniffing the gas, and reaching into the waters to gather other popping mudballs, to finally realize that THIS is what ultimately happens to bats that die and fall into limpid cave waters.

Titanic

Next season, DMTC is doing "Titanic." We are doing the London West End version.

Why Not a Subsription Fund?

Ranchers really pull their hair out about environmentalists. The reintroduction of the Mexican Gray Wolf onto wild lands and ranching lands in western New Mexico/eastern Arizona has many ranchers upset.

The public must keep in mind that an entire rural county and several small towns depend on the dollars that ranchers pump into the local economy. They are now spending production time managing wolves. They are being forced out of business, while feeding an animal that has been shown historically to be a major depredator and a danger - an animal pushed into their midst by an agency that says the public is happy to have this occurring in its name.

Wolves eat ranch animals, inflicting direct losses on ranchers. Why not have an insurance fund, subscribed to by environmentalists and governments, that ranchers can get reimbursed from for their losses?

Loathsome Kondracke

I can't help but note this ugly column by Morton Kondracke, who sounds more and more like a broken record, claiming Democrats must not criticize Bush, because they turn into traitors in the process. I remember Wacky Kondracke in 1980, when every single one of his predictions regarding the presidential campaign turned out to be wrong. Now, he's just an ugly character assassin:

So why should some Democrats now be acting as though they want to see their country lose a war? Why should they say things that may undermine the morale of U.S. forces and our Iraqi allies and contribute to a U.S. defeat?

And why should they reinforce the image of their party as being so hopelessly force-averse that it can't be trusted to lead on foreign policy?

It's one thing for a Democrat like Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.) to harshly criticize the way the Bush administration is conducting the war and then recommend constructive steps for winning it.

Well, Mort, constructive criticism doesn't do much good. Just ask Joe Wilson and his critique of the Niger uranium claim. A lot of good that did!

What undermines morale is when you realize your leaders are clueless. It's not pointing out the cluelessness: it's the cluelessness itself.

Bush's policies may fail on their own because they were misconceived or badly executed. What shouldn't happen is for U.S. policy to fail because Americans lose their will. Bush's critics, the Democrats, should tell him how to win, not declare that the cause is lost.

What does "win" mean, Mort? If it means a very provocative, indefinite, high-profile American military presence in Iraq, a presence that permanently inflames the Middle East, defeat might well be the best option for our security.

Vacuous Nonsense - or Common Sense?

Dwelling too much on the limitations of the Kyoto Treaty doesn't do a thing about Global Warming, but it's still useful having the treaty around to use as a cudgel against governments and businesses. Still, if George W. Bush is actually doing this, I'd be impressed (and the operative word is IF):

"Listen, I recognize that the surface of the Earth is warmer and that an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem," Bush said during an appearance in Denmark before arriving in Scotland for the annual summit of the Group of Eight industrialized nations.

"I think there's a better way forward," Bush said, citing his administration's emphasis on government-assisted technological innovation. "I would call it the post-Kyoto era, where we can work together to share technologies, to control greenhouse gases as best as possible."

Australian Home Prices

Like in many other places, Australian home prices soared over the last decade, but over the last two years, prices have plateaued - perhaps a harbinger of what awaits us? Still, the Australian experience may not be directly applicable - they have almost no fixed-rate mortgages there and they have a Central Bank willing to slow the bubble's rise.

Albuquerque Ballroom

Things have changed in Albuquerque, for the better, from the days (1979-1980) when I was Vice-President of the University of New Mexico Ballroom Dance Club (whose responsibilities consisted mostly of spinning the records and playing the tapes).

Malibu Trailer Park

I like mobile homes, but not this much:

A two-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home perched on a lot in Malibu is selling for $1.4 million. This isn't a greedy seller asking a ridiculous amount no one will pay. Two others sold in the area recently for $1.3 million and $1.1 million. Another, at $1.8 million, is in escrow. Nearby, another lists for $2.7 million.

Education Makes the Difference, Not Incentives

Here's a blow to the desperate Southern politicos (or anyone else who thinks along those lines) who think that if the incentives are sweet enough, industry will come flocking:

Ontario workers are well-trained. That simple explanation was cited as a main reason why Toyota turned its back on hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies offered from several American states in favour of building a second Ontario plant.

..."The level of the workforce in general is so high that the training program you need for people, even for people who have not worked in a Toyota plant before, is minimal compared to what you have to go through in the southeastern United States," said Gerry Fedchun, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, whose members will see increased business with the new plant.

...The factory will cost $800 million to build, with the federal and provincial governments kicking in $125 million of that to help cover research, training and infrastructure costs.

Several U.S. states were reportedly prepared to offer more than double that amount of subsidy. But Fedchun said much of that extra money would have been eaten away by higher training costs than are necessary for the Woodstock project.

He said Nissan and Honda have encountered difficulties getting new plants up to full production in recent years in Mississippi and Alabama due to an untrained - and often illiterate - workforce. In Alabama, trainers had to use "pictorials" to teach some illiterate workers how to use high-tech plant equipment.

"The educational level and the skill level of the people down there is so much lower than it is in Ontario," Fedchun said.

In addition to lower training costs, Canadian workers are also $4 to $5 cheaper to employ partly thanks to the taxpayer-funded health-care system in Canada, said federal Industry Minister David Emmerson.

"Most people don't think of our health-care system as being a competitive advantage," he said.

Dennis the Menace

Looks like an uncomfortable weekend coming up for folks in the Tampa/St. Petersburg Florida area. Tropical Storm Dennis is reaching Hurricane strength at this moment.

The NOGAPS forecast (generally the most reliable) shows Dennis crossing western Cuba, coming into the Gulf of Mexico, passing very close to Tampa, but passing by nevertheless, and crashing into the Alabama Gulf Coast, in a path reminiscent of last year's Hurricane Ivan (but a bit closer to the coast this time). Closest approach to Tampa will be mid-morning on Sunday. Winds are forecast to reach the 45 - 50 mph range, with higher gusts possible, but no direct hit forecast. Heaviest rains are forecast to be just offshore. There's always a chance for tornadoes, of course.

On the other hand, the GFS model shows a more powerful Dennis than NOGAPS forecasts, but passing farther off the coast, and crashing into the Mississippi Delta of Louisiana.

Let's hope the storm stays away from the coast.

Right Brain - Left Brain


Science appealed to me more than art did when I was young. Easier to get into.

But maybe I should have just tried harder. Certainly music is good for learning and brain development:

Overall, findings to date indicate that music has a biological basis and that the brain has a functional organization for music. It seems fairly clear, even at this early stage of inquiry, that many brain regions participate in specific aspects of music processing, whether supporting perception (such as apprehending a melody) or evoking emotional reactions. Musicians appear to have additional specializations, particularly hyperdevelopment of some brain structures. These effects demonstrate that learning retunes the brain, increasing both the responses of individual cells and the number of cells that react strongly to sounds that become important to an individual.

Satellite Picture of Iraq

Their sand - our oil! Photo courtesy B3ta Aeronautics and Space Administration:

Tiefster Winter

I was curious what the translation might be to the German lyrics of "Tiefster Winter" (Deepest Winter), performed by L'Ame Immortelle, a dance mix of which is featured on CD3 (Mix by DJ RiB - Razed in Black) of the "This Is Neo-Goth" album. It's a little clunky, but what else can one expect from the translation tools at Google?

Pretty bleak song, but, then, bleak and Goth go together:

Deepest Winter

Constantly gently, but by force
Your sword penetrates into me
Hope, it is dead
No more you, a shape
As coldly as bright steel
Without a feeling

Night fulfills now this area
Your light, it dazzles me
You speak as dead to me
Torn from the life dream
Of a strange power
In this area

Everything which I believed
Which gave me my hope
Went with you on this day
As for me the love died
My faith in the love
That there were it ever
Went with you on this day
As for me the love died

Deepest winter creates itself area
Where once spring buds flowered
In eternity, the dream destroys
A lake freezes to ice

It lives nothing more at this place
Which I mean soul called
The strength, hope, it is away
And returns never more

With my blood at your hands
You speak as dead to me
Lets end me here bitterlich
Without a feeling

Gold Medal Class of Aught-Five (Redux)


From the Sacramento Bee: Runaway Stage Productions presents "The Music Man," featuring, from left, Buffee Ann Gillihan, Michael McElroy, Kyle Hadley, Karen Day and Christian Salmon. Continuing through July 24 at the 24th Street Theatre, 2791 24th St. (Runaway Stage Productions)

From the lack of response so far by the technical crew at Blogger.com, it seems hardly anyone there is particularly bothered by the abrupt disappearance of my original July 3rd "Music Man" post. It's not clear what happened:

1. Did I somehow delete the post accidentally (like Rose Mary Woods suggested she did with the 18 1/2 minute gap in the Watergate tapes?)
2. Did Independence Day at Blogger.com mean releasing blogposts from their pages, to wander cyberspace like lost comets?
3. Can some angry reader bend HTML to their will, like Uri Geller does with spoons?
4. Didn't I sacrifice the fatted calf correctly?

In any event, I'll post my thoughts again (backing up the post in the event Satan's minions return). The only trouble, of course, is that I don't quite remember what I wrote. But I'll try...

In the wee hours of Saturday morning (July 2nd) I walked my dog Sparky past the 24th Street Theater, three blocks from our house. I picked up a discarded pamphlet, which was a "Music Man" program. Aha - the show is finally open!

Reading the program in the uncertain half-light, I was impressed, not only by how many friends and acquaintances were in the show (Kyle Hadley, Karen Day, Camille Totah, Chloe Condon, Amanda Salmon, Hailee Ketchum-Wiggins), but also by how many had also been in DMTC's last staging of "The Music Man" in October, 2003 (Michael McElroy, Rick Price, Rick Wennstrom, and Lauren Miller). A lot of "Music Man" experience on the 24th Street stage!

Later that afternoon, I saw Ron Cisneros, and told him I was pleasantly surprised that he was choreographing the show. He said he had been asked to step in as choreographer after the original choreographer departed the show. But later, in Davis, I heard a rumor, third-hand, that the original choreographer had been Pam Kay Lourentzos (my ballet instructor). That seemed quite surprising, especially after she successfully choreographed Runaway Stage's last show, "Pirates of Penzance." So, was the rumor based on fact, or was it hearsay, or just simple misinformation? I had to find out, so off I went on Saturday evening to the 24th Street Theater.

Turned out, the rumor was just misinformation. Coincidentally, Pam Kay Lourentzos came to the Saturday night show, and was warmly greeted by everyone. In the Musical Theater world, rumor can be an important conduit of information, but just as in *Real Life*, rumor can be, simply, dead wrong.

The first musical number was "Rock Island", a patter kind of 19th-Century rap song that can be devilishly difficult at times, especially since it's the first number of the show. I remembered being among DMTC's fraternity of travelling salesmen in October 2003, and recalled how we finally had to settle on practicing the number EVERY night before curtain, without fail, to be assured of getting it right. RSP's "Rock Island" had a few minor problems, of the exact sort we had. The solution, of course, will be the same: practicing the number EVERY night before curtain, without fail! The second number, "Iowa Stubborn" looked a little uncomfortable: the first number with the entire cast crowded onto the small stage. Microphone problems clouded the first two numbers.

The show finally hit its stride with its third number, "Ya Got Trouble," which introduces River City, Iowa to the spellbinding trickery of Harold Hill. I've noticed how attentive Michael McElroy is, both onstage and off, to the intricacies and history of Musical Theater, and that attentiveness came shining through. Nothing could throw Michael off his rhythm in this difficult song.

I don't know Buffee Ann Gillihan, and so I was curious to see how she would do as Marion Paroo. She's great! Very nice voice and manner. Even better, both Michael and Buffee Ann work well as a leading couple - a tribute to Bob Baxter's excellent casting.

Ron Cisneros did a good job with Runaway Stage's excellent corps of dancers. I especially liked the circle of inwardly-facing men, carrying the outwardly-facing women on their interlocked arms. There's a lot of potential comedy in the Pickalittle Ladies' 'Grecian Urn,' mostly related to the dawn of Modern Dance, and Ron did a good job exploiting the possibilities there.

Chloe Condon really has perfected the Zaneeta Shinn squeak - she's great! She looked a little uncomfortable in the big dance numbers (e.g., Marion the Librarian), which will pass with time. Part of her challenge is that she is frequently downstage center in the dance numbers: the sweetest spot on stage, of course, but where no dance help can be had. Tristan Rumery played Tommy Djilas well.

Kyle Hadley was very funny as Marcellus Washburn, Harold Hill's sidekick, particularly during the energetic "Shipoopi" number. I didn't realize Karen Day does accents: she does a good Irish accent. And now, another member of the Salmon clan hits the stage: Christian!

Camille Totah played Amaryllis very well, but I was more impressed how she shone in the dance ensemble: no one did a better job of energetically 'selling' their performance than Camille did - the smile, the spark. I hope she keeps that up over the coming years!

The Quartet was really good. After the show, Rick Price described to me how the local barber-shop singing community works various stagings of "The Music Man" into their rehearsal and performance schedules. They greatly appreciate the exposure that these shows give to their talents.

It was great to see lots of friends and acquaintances at the show: Ray Fisher, Laurent Lazard (but not Amber or Juliette, for some reason), Tyler Daum, Amy Salmon, and Robin Weiner.

Go see it!

Bait

OK, here's a real mystery....a blog hacker who seems interested in deleting all references to "Michael McElroy." My post regarding "The Music Man" was removed without my permission.

Time to fight fire with fire!

Michael McElroy, Michael McElroy, Michael McElroy, Michael McElroy, Michael McElroy!

Deep Impact


Comet Tempel meets NASA on July 4th eve.

Here is a movie of the event.

Cowardly Capitol Hill Democrats

Prepare to sell out progressives again.

Road Rage

Even the most powerful succumb to the temptation.

Cruel Provocation...

...Is still permissible in "Letters-to-the-Editor." Long live freedom of speech!

The Arizona Supreme Court ruled Friday that a newspaper cannot be sued for printing a letter that suggested Americans respond to attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq by going to the nearest mosque and killing the first five Muslims they see.

Jingles

The folks at B3ta collect these things - God knows why:

A few weeks back we asked you to send us crap advertising jingles based upon re-workings of popular songs.

However, you mostly ignored us, and sent us entirely the wrong stuff. However, it was all insanely great anyway so who cares?

This week B3ta features three jingles:

Handi Gandhi - Apparently a recording for an Australian curry sauce, this jingle might offend Hindus. And make Australians a little embarrassed too.

Yum Yum Bumblebee Tuna - For the revolting mental image alone, this jingle is a stomach-churning classic.

But the best jingle isn't really a jingle at all, but rather an:

Amateur voice over - "I work in radio", whispers Phil, "and sometimes clients insist on either voicing, or making, their own commercials. This is one of the latter, the very end cracks me up every time."

Daily Rotten

Picked up the box jellyfish story.

Subtle Plame

Economaniac suggest that the Plame case is not about a vendetta as such, but rather bureaucratic politics meant to conceal lies about WMD:

What started as a potential case of intentionally leaking the identity of an agent has now become about perjury and obstruction of justice in an attempt to conceal White House involvement in fixing the intelligence that led to war. Cooper and Miller were all over the prewar intelligence beat, so they become keys to understanding how the White House went from propagandists fighting CIA skeptics over WMD to triumphal victors haranguing their doubtors to well meaning victims of bad intelligence. The Plame disclosure happened right in the middle of the transformation, which means that it draws attention to both the WH role in the fixing of intelligence and its efforts to deny that role.

Fitzgerald needs the reporters to contradict whatever whitewash the WH has come up with for this mess. Its not just the identity of the source, it is what the WH was saying and when that will show that they lied to Fitzgerald and the Grand Jury to cover up their manipulation of and lying about prewar intelligence. This is what happens when the administration's Orwellian alteration of history occurs in a venue where lying is a crime and providing talking points is conspiracy to obstruct justice.

But As Bad As Albuquerque's Air Is....

Baghdad's air is worse....

Air Quality in Albuquerque

Is suffering - from the fire north of Phoenix, 400 miles away! Wow!

LA Settles For Second Place

The second-rainiest season on record:

They say Los Angeles likes a winner. But when it comes to rain, the city is going to have to settle for a close second.

The epic 2004-05-rain season comes to an end at midnight Wednesday, and downtown Los Angeles missed the all-time record by a measly 0.93 of an inch.

War of the Worlds

I don't like the color much myself:

IN a breakthrough that could bring a new defence against the world's deadliest animal, Queensland scientists have discovered that the box jellyfish flees from the colour red.

While a colour often associated with passion, red is a complete turnoff for the dreaded jellyfish, which in the warmer months inhabits tropical waters in northern Australia and has killed 70 people.

"The King and I" Review


Courtesy of Andy (and Steve), here is the Davis Enterprise review (for readability, save and expand).

Some aspects of the review are....idiosyncratic, to say the least. Could it be Malibu Barbie and Aunt Barb ARE THE SAME PERSON??? Oooowwweeeooo!

And now....the text!

Getting to know this 'King'
By Bev Sykes, Enterprise drama critic
Published: June 28, 2005

No make-up designer is listed in the program for the Davis Musical Theater Company production of "The King and I," which opened Friday at the Varsity Theater.

It's unrealistic, I suppose, to expect a small community theater to find a cast of actors who look Siamese/Burmese, but a little make-up magic would have helped credibility.

The characters who suffer the most from the lack of authenticity are Tuptim (Chelsea Beatty), the Burmese gift to the King of Siam, who narrates her story of "Uncle Tom's Cabin" wearing traditional Siamese headgear ... which, I hate to say it, just made her look like Malibu Barbie on the way to a Halloween party.

Likewise, the King's first wife, Lady Thiang (Jennifer Bonomo), does a marvelously consistent job with her accent, which seems strange coming from a woman who looks like my aunt Barb.

That said, if one can get past the fact that most of the faces on stage look no more Siamese than director Steve Isaacson, the show's good bits quickly fall into place.

This story of Anna Leonowens, a feisty British widow who travels to Siam with her young son Louis, in order to teach the king's children is, at the outset, visually stunning. Juan Ramos, who also plays the King, has designed a beautiful set within the confines of DMTC's always meager budget.

When the curtains opened Friday evening to reveal the King's chambers, some gasps came from the audience, at the simple beauty on display.

Add Dannette Vassar's subtle, effective lighting, and Jean Henderson's beautiful costumes, and we're off to a good start.

Isaacson has assembled a top-notch cast for this popular show. Unfortunately, no bios were made available, so I'm not sure who is new to the cast; I failed to recognize quite a few names, though, so several may have made their DMTC debuts. If so, I hope they stick around.

DMTC veteran Marguerite Morris plays Anna, and she's wonderful. Her clear, steady, strong voice is a delight whenever she sings. Her acting, as well, is first rate (although her projection could use a bit more oomph in her dialogue scenes). It's difficult to fault her; she's a marvelous casting choice.

Ramos also is equal to the task. He's a commanding presence, despite his less than commanding stature. He has the bearing of a king and a strong voice to go along with it. There's palpable chemistry between the King and Anna during their dancing scene ("Shall We Dance"), when they realize that they have feelings for each other, which never will progress further.

Chelsea Beatty and Ryan Favorite, as Tuptim and her lover Lun Tha, are outstanding. Beatty has a voice to die for, and it remains as strong in her top notes as in her mid-range. (If only she looked the part.) Favorite is a tall, handsome Lun Tha; although less sure as an actor, he handles the part vocally. Their duets are beautiful.

Young Andrew Lampinen is a fine Louis, with a good stage presence and a convincing British accent. John Ramos — as the young Prince Chulalongkorn, who will inherit his father's title on the death of the King — is somewhat less comfortable, though basically he does a good job.

Unfortunately, the two boys' duet, a thankfully brief reprise of the king's "A Puzzlement," is painful. They may have been unable to find the right note to start, and were unable to recover.

Ryan Adame turns in a very strong performance as The Kralahome, the King's right-hand man. (Adame is also one of the few who does look the part.)

The King's children — LisaSoto, Michelle Brunader, Maya Rothman, Macey Almendariz, Paige Almendariz, Brittney Almendariz, Linnea Lampinen, Tanya Campos, Kazuo Koyama, Camila Ortiz and Brittany Aldrege — are all adorable and well drilled.

Michael Miiller's choreography is particularly skillful in the superb rendition of "The Little House of Uncle Thomas," danced beautifully by Katy Fast, Robert Coverdell, Marisa Casillas, Maria Ramirez, Tanya Campos and Marcy Gribin.

I'm certain a few are not already familiar with this Rodgers and Hammerstein story, and with the songs that have become so much a part of the American scene ("Getting to Know You," "Hello, Young Lovers," "Whistle a Happy Tune," and others.). This production, which closes out DMTC's 20th season — and, Isaacson assures me, is the last DMTC show to be staged at the Varsity Theater — has its flaws, but they're outweighed by its strong points. The production is well worth checking out.

Copyright, 2005, The Davis Enterprise. All Rights Reserved.

Billmon Finds The Pea Under The Shell

The best reaction to Bush's speech is by (courtesy of PBD) Billmon, who sees a new Bush strategy: negotiate a settlement with some of our foes - specifically Sunnis who may have only been loosely associated with Saddam's regime (now called insurgents), and not others (now called terrorists). Quoting Billmon:

If you go back and look at the old party lines (versions 1.0 and 2.0) you can quickly see that something new has been added. Heretofore, the "anti-Iraqi forces" have consisted of:

1.) Foreign Terrorists (aka "assassins")
2.) Regime Remnants (aka "dead enders")
3.) Criminal Elements (aka "thugs")

But now we have a fourth category, one with a nice neutral name that doesn't allude to hacking people's heads off or gassing your own people or hating our freedoms:

4.) Iraqi Insurgents (aka "negotiating partners.")

From there on out, the speech carefully and repeatedly distinguished between the terrorists and the insurgents, who are now -- in the fantasy world of the White House propaganda shop at least -- two unique and different populations, where before they were one and indivisible....

So, there was something new in the speech after all! A subtle but very clear shift. You never negotiate with terrorists, after all, but negotiations with insurgents is just a matter of course. We are going to negotiate our way out, likely leaving Iraq to the mercies of a very nasty bunch of people!

Indeed Juan Cole notes that already some of the Shia suspect the Americans are talking too much to the Sunnis, and maybe are planning to stab them in the back.

So remember, from now on, the operative term is now "Terrorists AND Insurgents!"

The Soothing Cloak of Darkness

Yesterday afternoon about 4 p.m., a truck collided with - and completely broke at the base - a telephone pole at the intersection of 21st Street and 2nd Avenue in Sacramento (across from Swanberg's). Thus, when I went home last night, I was startled by the sound of jackhammers in the darkness. My house was apparently at the edge of the blackout zone created as the SMUD workers replaced the telephone pole and transferred the electric cabling to the new pole. Everything from 2nd Avenue to the railroad was cloaked in velvety darkness.

I relished plunging into the jet black streets on our 2 a.m. walk, but I think Sparky was a bit spooked.

Forest For The Trees

The harrassing calls come in on the cell phone nightly, starting around 3 a.m. Jungle Woman keeps some strange hours for a businesswoman, leaving disorder in her wake...

Afflicting the Convenience Store Clerk:

"The gas pump isn't working. You need to reset it."
"You turned off the pump. Do you want the change?"
"I just gave you $20 for gas! I tried to put gas in the tank, but none came out."
"I show that you put $2 worth of gas in your tank, then turned it off."
"Turned it off? That is the STUPIDIEST thing I ever heard of! Who would EVER do anything so STUPID?"
"Would you like your change?"

Catching Up on Pop Culture:

Elvis Presley: King Of The Rock!

Favorite Movie Line (supposedly from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon):

"I AM the Green Destiny! Now BEG for your mercy!"

Impressions of George Bush's Speech

Here are some of my impressions:

The terrorists who attacked us – and the terrorists we face – murder in the name of a totalitarian ideology that hates freedom, rejects tolerance, and despises all dissent. Their aim is to remake the Middle East in their own grim image of tyranny and oppression – by toppling governments, driving us out of the region, and exporting terror.

And yet, unlike Communism, it's an ideology without a name, right? So mysterious! But wait! Most of our opponents are Muslims, so presumably that's the ideology. But our allies are Muslims too. So complicated!

Our mission in Iraq is clear. We are hunting down the terrorists. We are helping Iraqis build a free nation that is an ally in the war on terror. We are advancing freedom in the broader Middle East. We are removing a source of violence and instability – and laying the foundation of peace for our children and our grandchildren.

To an increasing extent, we are not hunting down the terrorists. Rather, the terrorists are hunting down our forces. We are on the defensive, have precious little intelligence regarding our enemies, and simply await slaughter.

Some of the violence you see in Iraq is being carried out by ruthless killers who are converging on Iraq to fight the advance of peace and freedom. Our military reports that we have killed or captured hundreds of foreign fighters in Iraq who have come from Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Libya and other nations. They are making common cause with criminal elements, Iraqi insurgents, and remnants of Saddam Hussein’s regime who want to restore the old order. They fight because they know that the survival of their hateful ideology is at stake. They know that as freedom takes root in Iraq, it will inspire millions across the Middle East to claim their liberty as well.

Well, this is progress. A year ago, Bush was claiming that only dead-enders and recalcitrant Saddam loyalists were opposing the "Advance of Freedom." But what he says now was true then as well. And our enemies don't have a quarrel with "liberty," or even "freedom," as such: they see their enemy as being the United States of America: Christian, modern, aggressive, and in their backyards.

Some wonder whether Iraq is a central front in the war on terror. Among the terrorists, there is no debate. Hear the words of Osama Bin Laden: “This Third World War … is raging” in Iraq. “The whole world is watching this war.” He says it will end in “victory and glory or misery and humiliation.”

We determine where the central front is as much as bin Laden does. We said it's Iraq: so it's Iraq!

These are savage acts of violence – but they have not brought the terrorists any closer to achieving their strategic objectives. The terrorists – both foreign and Iraqi – failed to stop the transfer of sovereignty. They failed to break our Coalition and force a mass withdrawal by our allies. They failed to incite an Iraqi civil war. They failed to prevent free elections. They failed to stop the formation of a democratic Iraqi government that represents all of Iraq’s diverse population. And they failed to stop Iraqis from signing up in large numbers with the police forces and the army to defend their new democracy.

The insurgents do not appear to have much of a political arm - they never said they wanted to do any of these things. So how can we say they've failed?

The lesson of this experience is clear: The terrorists can kill the innocent – but they cannot stop the advance of freedom. The only way our enemies can succeed is if we forget the lessons of September 11 … if we abandon the Iraqi people to men like Zarqawi … and if we yield the future of the Middle East to men like Bin Laden. For the sake of our Nation’s security, this will not happen on my watch.

But we have yielded "the future of the Middle East to men like Bin Laden," by failing to eradicate him. We didn't follow through in Afghanistan!

A little over a year ago, I spoke to the Nation and described our Coalition’s goal in Iraq. I said that America’s mission in Iraq is to defeat an enemy and give strength to a friend – a free, representative government that is an ally in the war on terror, and a beacon of hope in a part of the world that is desperate for reform. I outlined the steps we would take to achieve this goal: We would hand authority over to a sovereign Iraqi government … we would help Iraqis hold free elections by January 2005 … we would continue helping Iraqis rebuild their nation’s infrastructure and economy … we would encourage more international support for Iraq’s democratic transition … and we would enable Iraqis to take increasing responsibility for their own security and stability.

In the past year, we have made significant progress:

One year ago today, we restored sovereignty to the Iraqi people.

Sovereignty without control of the armed forces is hollow indeed. And how can the U.S. prevail if we don't commit enough troops to the campaign?

In January 2005, more than eight million Iraqi men and women voted in elections that were free and fair – and took place on time.

The elections featured slates of candidates, and not specific individuals - to announce a candidacy meant courting death. The elections gave only the roughest idea of true voter sentiment.

In the past year, the international community has stepped forward with vital assistance. Some thirty nations have troops in Iraq, and many others are contributing non-military assistance. The United Nations is in Iraq to help Iraqis write a constitution and conduct their next elections. Thus far, some 40 countries and three international organizations have pledged about 34 billion dollars in assistance for Iraqi reconstruction.

And troop levels by donor countries are being reduced month by month.....

The progress in the past year has been significant – and we have a clear path forward. To complete the mission, we will continue to hunt down the terrorists and insurgents. To complete the mission, we will prevent al-Qaida and other foreign terrorists from turning Iraq into what Afghanistan was under the Taliban – a safe haven from which they could launch attacks on America and our friends. And the best way to complete the mission is to help Iraqis build a free nation that can govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself.

But we are on the defensive, not the offensive. If force protection is the order of the day, we will have failed our soldiers. Seize the offensive, or get picked off by snipers and bombers!

The principal task of our military is to find and defeat the terrorists – and that is why we are on the offense. And as we pursue the terrorists, our military is helping to train Iraqi Security Forces so that they can defend their people and fight the enemy on their own. Our strategy can be summed up this way: As the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.

Vietnamization, Part II!

I recognize that Americans want our troops to come home as quickly as possible. So do I. Some contend that we should set a deadline for withdrawing U.S. forces. Let me explain why that would be a serious mistake. Setting an artificial timetable would send the wrong message to the Iraqis – who need to know that America will not leave before the job is done. It would send the wrong message to our troops – who need to know that we are serious about completing the mission they are risking their lives to achieve. And it would send the wrong message to the enemy – who would know that all they have to do is to wait us out. We will stay in Iraq as long as we are needed – and not a day longer.

But what, again, is our job? The mission changes all the time! It was once WMD: now it's the training of troops. Is that a proper function for our soldiers, instead of their sergeants?

Some Americans ask me, if completing the mission is so important, why don’t you send more troops? If our commanders on the ground say we need more troops, I will send them. But our commanders tell me they have the number of troops they need to do their job. Sending more Americans would undermine our strategy of encouraging Iraqis to take the lead in this fight. And sending more Americans would suggest that we intend to stay forever – when we are in fact working for the day when Iraq can defend itself and we can leave. As we determine the right force level, our troops can know that I will continue to be guided by the advice that matters – the sober judgment of our military leaders.

It has long been clear that if military officers ask for more troops, their careers are cut off at the knees: witness General Abazaid. So, the military commanders don't ask for more troops, ever! - they make do. Remember, the commanders take orders from Bush: they don't "ask" him for jack! And what about the "14 bases" we are angling for in Iraq, the ones the Coalition Provisional Administration made sure our sovereign right to insist upon was embedded in Iraq's Constitution?

One big reason we don't ask for more troops is that we've made a conscious decision that the goal is not worth more troops, however important we might say the mission is. So, we are, in essence, lying to our own troops about the value of their mission. They can sense the gulf between rhetoric and action, and who can blame them if they lose heart?

As Iraqis make progress toward a free society, the effects are being felt beyond Iraq’s borders. Before our Coalition liberated Iraq, Libya was secretly pursuing nuclear weapons. Today the leader of Libya has given up his chemical and nuclear weapons programs. Across the broader Middle East, people are claiming their freedom. In the last few months, we have witnessed elections in the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon. These elections are inspiring democratic reformers in places like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Our strategy to defend ourselves and spread freedom is working. The rise of freedom in this vital region will eliminate the conditions that feed radicalism and ideologies of murder – and make our Nation safer.

One consequence of freedom is that people now openly shout "Yankee Go Home" rather than grit their teeth in silence. Condi Rice's latest trip to the Middle East generated lots of nice headlines here, but no applause there.

America and our friends are in a conflict that demands much of us. It demands the courage of our fighting men and women … it demands the steadfastness of our allies … and it demands the perseverance of our citizens. We accept these burdens – because we know what is at stake. We fight today, because Iraq now carries the hope of freedom in a vital region of the world – and the rise of democracy will be the ultimate triumph over radicalism and terror. And we fight today because terrorists want to attack our country and kill our citizens – and Iraq is where they are making their stand. So we will fight them there … we will fight them across the world – and we will stay in the fight until the fight is won.

No, we are making OUR stand in Iraq: the "terrorists" will go wherever we do! And I didn't recall Bush asking for our perseverance after September 11th: instead, he asked us to continue shopping!

Well, no imminent draft apparently, but no reinforcements for our struggling troops, which means we'll flog them to death, just like we did with the "Rag Soldiers" of WWII, during the Battle of the Bulge (at least there, we had an excuse - we didn't have many troops yet in Europe). Plus, Bush recites hollow progress, and shows no sign of changing course. Following the Vietnam script the entire way! Bush is Nixon resurrected!

(The Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again.")

We'll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgement of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again

(small instrumental)

The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that's all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they are flown in the next war

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
No, no!

(instrumental)

I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
Though I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do ya?

(instrumental)

There's nothing in the streets
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

(instrumental)

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

Iraq, Vietnam's Flashback

Vietnam, the Sequel, where we still lose. Not hard to persuade me: they are deeply similar in many ways.

New Book on Social Security Sleazoids

A new book is coming out describing the Bush Administration's jihad against America's retirement system: Michael A. Hiltzik's "The Plot Against Social Security: How the Bush Plan Is Endangering Our Financial Future."

New Source Review Court Decision

I enter the field of air pollution control carefully: not only is it controversial, but it's outside my immediate range of experience (dispersion modeling). It looks like the recent Appeals Court decision regarding EPA’s December 2002 New Source Review (NSR) reforms doesn't lean THAT heavily in industry's direction. Still, everyone is waiting to see what happens with the NEXT court decision:

The Bush administration's plan to let aging industrial plants modernize without buying expensive new pollution controls was upheld Friday by a federal appeals court.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia sided with the Environmental Protection Agency, saying New York and 13 other states failed to show how key areas of the administration's new regulations violate the 1970 Clean Air Act. But the unanimous decision also came down against the EPA on two parts of the rule changes, and told the agency to review a third, giving environmentalists some reason for optimism within the 73-page decision.

...The Bush administration argued that its decision to let older power and other industrial plants modernize without making them install expensive new pollution controls will remove barriers to innovation and increase productivity -- and will not worsen air quality. But environmental critics say the changes also will increase sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that contribute to acid rain and public health woes....

...The judges' ruling said it is not clear if the administration's changes in "new source review" regulations -- rules governing industrial sources of pollution -- will lead to greater pollution, or if leaving the old rules in place would deter companies from modernizing. The new source review rules apply to some 17,000 facilities around the country, including power plants, refineries, steel mills and pharmaceutical factories.

...Another lawsuit, focusing on plant maintenance and upgrades, will be of greater importance to power plants. That case is pending.

Among its decisions, the Appeals Court rejected an exemption for pollution control projects. For example, if you install a scrubber on a coal-fired boiler, you will generate a large reduction in SO2 emissions and a small increase in particulate emissions. Under the old rules, the increase in particulate emissions could trigger NSR and Best Available Control Technology requirements, thus creating a disincentive to install the scrubber. The December 2002 rule changes would have exempted these collateral emission increases from review under certain circumstances, but the Court held that there is no basis in law for this exemption. Some California District rules include similar exemptions.

Most significantly, this Court decision has nothing to do with the Routine Repair, Maintenance and Replacement provisions of the NSR Reform package. These provisions are the most controversial provisions that lead to the claim that power plant operators might be able to modernize their facilities without undergoing NSR. The Court decision didn’t address those provisions because the States’ lawsuits didn’t challenge those provisions, because they were adopted by EPA less than two weeks ago. So that battle is yet to come.

Big Party

Over at East Lawn Cemetery (43rd & Folsom) this evening at 7 p.m., as they celebrate their 101st anniversary. Tours of notable burials wil be featured.

Between this, the Chimp's speech this evening, and Pepper Von step aerobics, all I can say is I'm glad I live in a city!

Mea Culpa

Courtesy of Gabe, a photo of a young Pope John Paul II on a camping trip.

I Don't Have A Problem With Religion

But religion has a problem with me (From Betty Bo Bibster at B3ta):

Top Ten List

Debra Dickerson's Top Ten reactions to the U.S. Senate's recent lynching apology:

1. Bite me.
2. Damn right, the least you could do.
3. Mighty white of you.
4. Gee, couldn't you have waited just a little longer -- until even the trees from which the "strange fruit" swung were dead?
5. I'm not impressed, but then, I'm bell-curved. What do I know?
6. Thanks for kicking our asses so hard, and for so long, that we were forced to develop entire art forms around our oppression.
7. Try not to break your arm patting yourselves on the back.
8. Give us back the land, the businesses and the unpaid debts that were the true cause of many lynchings. You sleaze bags!
9. Gee, was there no appropriate Hallmark card? Let a sister help you out:
   
   Sorry I castrated your granddad. My bad.
   What's 300 years of raping your ancestors among friends?
   Sticks and stones may break your bones ... Oops. They already did.
   
   And my topmost reaction to your lame-ass, late-ass lynching apology:
10. Thanks for absolutely, positively nothing. You feel better. We feel worse. Déjà bloody vu all over again.

"Sepo"

The fruit of G. W.'s war.

Louts And Their Cars

Are soon parted.

Cost Of The War

A ticker!

Too Fun

Poking holes in the arguments The Wall Street Journal uses against Global Warming.

Strategery

What to do about Iraq? Here is my germ of an idea:

OK, how about this: forswear the "14 bases", abandon the Green Zone, and then make a strategic retreat to the Kurdish north.

We'd take a bit of steam out of the insurgency, give our widely-scattered troops less ground to cover, and put our troops in a place where they are actually welcome. We could make lightning forays to attack in the South when needed as well. We wouldn't be actually abandoning the mission, just reconfiguring it for survival in a harsh environment.

The danger would be that the new Iraqi government wouldn't survive such a change, but it may not survive anyway if we don't do something different than what we've been doing. Like FDR said, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Be willing to experiment!

Sulky Cloudy

I washed Cloudy this weekend (a complete wash), and even though she was very compliant, she acted very hurt that I would mug her again this way, just as I did last autumn. I've been conducting all sorts of diplomatic forays, with bananas and carrots and kale, to ingratiate myself with her again, but progress is slow.

I wonder if she'd mind if I used a portable hair dryer to make the drying go faster?

Looking To Wash His Hands

Donald Rumsfeld has signed off on the idea that America need no longer prevail in Iraq: Iraqis must do the hard work. Particularly for American nationalists, the implications are worrisome: it means a loss of control (at Obsidian Wings):

But there are other emotions, too. Less-freeing emotions. Emotions that seem better suited to sitting in a twin-prop in turbulence than being a citizen of the greatest nation on Earth in a battle for the soul of a liberated Iraq. Indeed, if you have always believed -- or, as I, have come to believe -- that Iraq is a central front in the war on terror, Rumsfeld's statement is frankly terrifying.

For here is what it means: If victory in Iraq is required to win the war on terror and our troops no longer hold the key to such victory, then we have given up part of our control over the course and conduct of a big part of the war. We have subcontracted a substantial part of our national defense to Iraq's fledgling security forces. We win, or lose, based on their -- not our -- efforts.

Charming Marion Davies

Last night, Turner Classic Movies (TCM) featured a biography of Marion Davies. In her lifetime, she was judged rather harshly, for her relationship with the arch-conservative William Randolph Hearst, for her drinking, for her ambition.

But it is clear, looking at movie clips, that she was really a gifted actress, a classic Broadway Showgirl, a generous person who deserved all the happiness she could gather. It's important to remember not to judge too quickly or harshly other people - something Orson Welles should have remembered before cementing history's harsh judgments of Marion Davies with his accusatory masterpiece, Citizen Kane: history will certainly judge Welles more harshly than Davies.

Don't Do This At Home

Years of education and experience have superbly prepared me for this video game. As the E-Mail says:

I was forwarded this website and thought you'd find it useful for training people on how to calculate plume direction based on wind speed and direction.

David Broder, Dupe (and Dope)

From Edward Gorey: the craven pundit feigns cluelessness and conveniently forgets he helped pull the trigger!



I was appalled by David Broder's weekend editorial. Broder feels that the national interest on any topic is empirically determinable from debate - and compromise - between Republicans and Democrats. What a dope!

Some issues do not lend themselves to compromise: for example, Lincoln wavered not at all in his determination to save the Union, and most importantly, never compromised with the Secessionists.

Insisting that a compromise be reached under all circumstances is, simply, wrong: for example, imagine Jews negotiating terms with the Nazis (OK, we'll offer 3 million Jewish lives this time, and that's our final offer!) It's like negotiating between a raging conflagration and the firemen sent to help: the parties are not on equal terms. Split-the-difference only works when there is a basic agreement on means and goals.

Doesn't Broder understand that the current Republican leadership DOES NOT CARE about Social Security AT ALL and negotiations with them over the program's future will be fruitless? Republican leaders do not care about the program's approaching insolvency: instead, they only care about avoiding the tax hikes required after 2017 to cover the program's shortfall. A better response for these refractory cases comes from World War II, when General McAuliffe responded "Nuts!" upon being confronted with a German surrender ultimatum during the Battle of the Bulge. That's the spirit!

Republicans have never negotiated in good faith regarding Social Security. Time and again, the Democrats have faced surrender ultimatums: Private accounts, or ELSE! Well, "NUTS!" to that! Saving Social Security DOES NOT require private accounts! Period! Come back when you are prepared to actually negotiate!

George Bush is willing to try Robert Bennett's proposal, just to assess where Democratic weaknesses are - a Trojan Horse, if you will:

When Bennett outlined his proposal in a Republican leadership meeting with Bush last week, the president encouraged him to go forward. Bennett quoted him as saying, "I like your bill, period."

White House spokesmen quickly added that Bush was not abandoning his desire for private accounts -- despite polls showing broad public disapproval of his approach.

Bush will certainly not adjust his own plans, whatever the merits of Bennett's proposal.

So, Harry Reid says "Nuts!" and Broder cries more crocodile tears:

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada was quick to dismiss the Bennett idea as a "bait-and-switch" scheme, designed to lure the Democrats into negotiations that would ultimately produce a bill with private accounts. Reid repeated his demand that Bush take those accounts off the table before the negotiations begin -- something the president plainly will not do.

Democrats are feeling smug about the way they have stymied Bush on Social Security. When I asked Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean last week about his party's position on the issue, he said, "We're in a great place. We have been able to block privatization."

But the program is not in a great place. The insolvency problem is real, and it needs to be fixed. No one who knows Bob Bennett believes he is a "bait-and-switch" game-player.

Bob Bennett may or may not be a straight-shooter, but he is coordinating his proposal with the White House, and they are definitely not straight-shooters.

Broder seems to think Armageddon analogies are appropriate, as if circumstances are dire enough to demand negotiation even under adverse circumstances:

Democrats need to recall what John Kennedy did during the Cuban missile crisis. The president received two messages from Nikita Khrushchev on successive days, the first outlining easy terms for resolving the crisis -- a pledge of no U.S. invasion -- and the second adding other conditions. Kennedy decided to respond to the first and ignore the second, and the crisis was resolved.

The Social Security problem is not Armageddon - it isn't even as severe as the current Medicare problem - and the Khrushchev analogy fails to hold. Broder offers foolish advice:

If they are responsible, Democrats will take Bennett at his word, come out of their defensive crouch, negotiate -- and put Bush and the Republicans on the spot. To balk at such an offer would be a sign they are putting politics above the national interest.

Even having a negotiation occur at all doesn't put Bush and the Republicans on the spot: rather, under the circumstances, it would be a small Republican victory, and would simply encourage the Joe Liebermann/DLC surrender monkeys. Democrats are under no obligation whatsoever to grant them even that much. Who cares if David Broder thinks the Democrats are putting political interest above the national interest? The Democrats are stalling, and that will serve the national interest infinitely better than ANY negotiation with Republicans pushing private accounts!

The Republicans are determined to destroy Social Security, by hook or by crook. Negotiating a quick demise, through massive privatization, or a more prolonged bloodletting, through Senator Bennett's privatization-lite, leads in the same direction: the more money diverted from shoring up Social Security, the weaker Social Security gets. Negotiation will lead nowhere, at least, until Republicans give up their ideological fixation on destroying Social Security. Even if no negotiations occur until 2017, the system will still be stronger than if ANY of the current Republican suggestions on the table get implemented into law.

Yet Broder is outraged - outraged! - that the Democrats should stall on Social Security. He calls the Democrats smug. That's a false allegation: Democrats aren't smug, not by a long shot! They are finally getting smart about HOW to negotiate, however: first, it's all about not getting all wobbly and caving before the real negotiation actually starts! And there's plenty of time - another 12 years! - for that negotiation.

So, stay the course Harry Reid! Onward, to victory! Crush the Republicans and their craven, compromising Broder friends along the way!

Meanwhile, talking about crushing reporters, reporters Miller and Cooper's appeal to the Supreme Court regarding the Plame case leaks has been turned down: a good development in efforts to rein in mainstream media reporters who subvert national security in order to suck up to powerful government sources engaged on vendettas....

"The King and I" Opens

(left: DMTC Co-Producer Steve Isaacson implores a new ensemble member to please enunciate and sing more loudly, especially in the confines of the acoustically-challenged Varsity Theater!)


Friday night, DMTC's "The King and I" opened at the Varsity Theater in Davis. I was there to help usher. Co-producer Steve Isaacson was in a suit: first time in a year I've seen him so dressed!

Minutes before opening, D. asked me to take some extension cords backstage. With large shows like "The King and I," the backstage area is usually a beehive of activity, but this time, the area was all but deserted: only M., the Stage Manager, was there (I suspect the traditional opening-night conclave in the dressing rooms was underway, explaining the missing cast). M. picked up some colorful cloth strips on the prop table: "Sashes!" she said, as her eyes rolled upwards. She proceeded to trudge upstairs to return the sashes to the children, who would surely miss them soon.

Opening night, I could sense the cast was being quite careful, to avoid making dreadful mistakes. There were a few mistakes - e.g., the Karalahome prophetically commented on Anna's new ring before the King apologetically presented it - but by and large, things went well: Bev, the Davis Enterprise reviewer was there, so by Wednesday we'll have an less-biased impression how things went. One unexpected thing that went wrong was in Anna's bedroom scene, when she had to put on a bathrobe: it was exasperatingly difficult to find the sleeves. In a similar vein, I thought maybe for entertainment's sake, every show should feature the lead characters having to solve Rubik's Cube puzzles, or answer riddles, or respond to knock-knock jokes, just to drive them crazy and test their on-stage amiability.

Juan Ramos is a very effective King, and Marguerite Morris did an excellent job with Anna. I especially liked the contrast between Anna's usual reserve, and her fiery demeanor when alone in the privacy of her room, she rebukes the King's selfishness. After the show, Marguerite commented that she hadn't fully-appreciated until now how difficult the role of Anna is: one of the few fully-developed and complex leading roles in Musical Theater. Ryan Adame is intimidating as the Kralahome, and Jennifer Bonomo (as Lady Thiang) switches from nuturing to intimidating at an instant's notice, depending on context.

According to Steve and Jan, this is the smallest cast for "The King and I" that DMTC has ever fielded. There aren't that many kids in the show, and John Hancock makes several quick changes trying to keep up with the demands on adult males. The opening night audience was 155, nearly twice "Annie's" opening audience, in March!