Coming To Terms With Free Trade

Walt, John, and myself, good college friends with different outlooks, continue our discussion regarding free trade:

Walt

My understanding of John's position is:

• problem: declining U.S. manufacturing ability since 1970;
• cause or aggravating factor: the trade deficit;
• remediation plan: protection of U.S. industry with a 3-tier tariff schedule.

I see things very differently. I don’t believe that the U.S. has lost manufacturing ability, or jobs, since 1970. I’m not an economist, but I do have a 2005 World Almanac. I looked up the following statistics for the U.S. GNP since 1960:

[GNP (E12 current dollars); GNP (1967 dollars); per capita GNP (1967 dollars)]:

1960: (0.53, 0.60, $3400);
1970: (1.04, 0.90, $4400);
1980: (2.8, 1.1, $4900);
1990: (5.8, 1.5, $6000);
2000: (9.9, 1.9, $6800).

It looks like the wealth created in the U.S. since 1960 has more than tripled, from $0.6 trillion in 1960, to $1.9 trillion in 2000, adjusted for inflation (1967 dollars). Furthermore, although U.S. population increased during that time, the per capita GNP still doubled, in inflation-adjusted dollars. I interpret this to mean that we have added a great deal of manufacturing ability since 1960, and that there is twice as much wealth per person in 2000, compared to 1960, as well.

Is this increase in wealth merely a fictional “paper” increase, or perhaps held by only a few fatcats? No, it is not. Some comparisons between the 1987 and 2005 World Almanacs:

Automobiles: (1987 - 130 million; 2005 - 220 million);
Televisions per capita: (1987 - 0.14; 2005 - 0.84);
Phones: (1987 - 134 million; 2005 - 182 million);
Internet lines: (1987 - less than 1 million; 2005 - 159 million).

What about unemployment? Has the U.S. been losing jobs, as a percent of the labor force? No:

1960: 5.5%;
1970: 4.9%;
1980: 7.1%;
1990: 5.6%;
2000: 4.0%.

I do not see any worsening trend. However, the data are somewhat misleading; they might suggest a nearly constant number of jobs available when comparing 1960 (5.5%) to 1990 (5.6%). However, that is not the case. These numbers represent unemployment not as a percentage of the total population, but rather as a percentage of the workforce. In 1960, most women were out of the workforce; but in 1990, most women were in it. So there is significant job growth between 1960 and 1990, which cannot be seen from the unemployment table alone. Finally, a look at life expectancy: (1960 - 70 years; 2000 - 77 years).

To sum up, when looking at statistics from the World Almanac, I can’t find any evidence for declining manufacturing ability, standard of living, or job loss. On the contrary, all categories seem to be getting consistently better. Furthermore, my personal anecdotal observations are consistent with the statistical data.

Of course some individual towns, and employment in some individual industries, have declined over this period. Some of those declines, for example mining, are partly or mostly due to competition from overseas. Others are due to increased productivity. An example there is agriculture. At one time, more than half of Americans were on the farm; now it is less than 3%. Are we in a starvation crisis? Not at all – production efficiency has gotten so good that 3% of the people can supply all our food needs. The important thing from a national perspective is not the employment level or financial health of any one industry, but the economy as a whole. I see nothing to be alarmed about, as far as ability to produce wealth is concerned. So your basic premise, that we are losing manufacturing ability, is not correct, as far as I can tell from statistics and my own experience.

But are trade deficits a bad thing anyway? I don’t believe so. One thing to remember, which you know, is that “deficit spending” and “trade deficit” are two different things, with nothing important in common. Deficit spending is borrowing, a trade deficit is buying. Borrowing money is not necessarily bad, but it obligates one to a financial responsibility which can last a long time. Buying is not bad at all, if one has the money to pay.

The national trade deficit is the sum of all the individual trade deficits of American citizens. My wife and I have been running a trade deficit with Bi-Lo supermarket ever since we got married. Currently it is close to $4000 per year, with a twelve year total of $50,000! There is no prospect of reducing this trade deficit in the foreseeable future. I’m beginning to suspect that no matter how long I live, I will die with a net trade deficit with Bi-Lo. Is this bad? No, because my economic well being does not depend on a balance of trade with Bi-Lo. Furthermore, I do not borrow from them. I earn, from an outside source, much more money than I ever spend at Bi-Lo. Finally, if my outside income declines in the future, I will be able to reduce spending at Bi-Lo, if I choose: much of what I buy is elective, and not strictly necessary. Yes, I know that Bi-Lo is an American company, but the principle is the same. If it was a foreign company, nothing about my personal situation would be different. By the way, I have a significant trade deficit with Honda, too, and likewise I don’t expect it to send me to the poorhouse.

I’m sure you see the analogy here. America’s economic well being does not depend on a balanced trade sheet, as long as we earn an independent income from an independent source, which is larger than the trade deficit (T.D.) Our GNP is a whole lot bigger than our trade deficit. According to my almanac, the 2003 T.D. was 4.8% of the GNP. That’s analogous to me spending $4.80 at Bi-Lo for every $100 I earn. Another way to look at it is: in 2003, we earned 20 times more than we sent overseas. Next year, we’ll earn again 20 times more wealth than we’ll send to other countries. We make money a whole lot faster than we send it abroad. And remember, the trade deficit is NOT an accumulating debt – it is not a debt at all. Adding it up to get a big cumulative number, and a corresponding sense of impending doom, does not make sense, as far as I can tell.

Also, I do not worry much about China or some other country buying all our power plants (or whatever) with their U.S. dollars, and then turning them all off at once. If we don’t want to sell, we won’t. If we’re tricked into selling, we’ll freeze their U.S. assets, take over the power plants, and turn them back on.

Maybe I’m missing something important here. If I am, I’ll feel like a fool, but I’ll thank you for setting me straight. If you do, please explain it with my Bi-Lo trade deficit analogy, so I’ll understand it better. Also, note that the U.S. ran a nearly continuous trade deficit from 1790-1875. Why don’t the history books talk about that being a big disaster?

Your proposed 3-tier tariff structure interested me, because here you shifted part of your objective from preserving U.S. industrial capacity and jobs to putting pressure on other countries to change their social priorities.

If the objective of a tariff is to reduce imports, and thereby preserve(noncompetitive) American jobs, and also reduce cash flow out of the US, then the most effective tariffs will be those imposed on the nations with whom we have the worst trade balances. Those nations are China, Japan, and Canada, in that order. However, you propose the highest tariffs on goods from China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Although China is certainly a major source of imports, Vietnam and Bangladesh are absolutely trivial contributors to the trade deficit, or to U.S. job loss. Neither one even made the Almanac’s trade balance table. On the other hand, you nominate Canada and Japan for no tariffs at all! This suggests that here, you see tariffs more as an instrument of foreign policy, and less as a shield for U.S. industries. Your motive may be only partly to reduce imports, but more centrally to exert pressure on nations whose labor & social practices are different from ours.

So how do I feel about this? I’ve got mixed feelings. In principle, it is OK to use coercion to change other nations’ behaviors. Diplomacy is an accepted practice throughout the world, and diplomats have only two tools in their bag: the carrot, and the stick. Imposing tariffs to pressure nations into improving their environmental, labor, or intellectual property behaviors is perfectly OK with me. However, I am very much against using tariffs in order to restrain trade, or to keep uncompetitive or inefficient industries alive. That is planned obsolescence. If we rely on a tariff, which are a species of boycott, in order to keep our businesses going, one day we’ll wake up to find that nobody in the world wants to buy our products, because better and cheaper products will be made in every nation but ours. I also believe that imposing tariffs for these reasons is unethical. It is all right to shun people who won’t work, or who think society owes them a living, but it is wrong to do that to people who work hard and create something useful. Also: do we want the poor nations of the world to pull themselves out of poverty, or not? How will they ever succeed if the “upper class” conspires to refuse to buy their stuff?

Of course I’m perfectly aware that some of the reasons for the competitive edge overseas are fewer environmental regulations, fewer worker safety regulations, and lower wages. So it’s a grey area, kind of like everything else. Thus my mixed feelings.

I face layoffs myself. My company had 23,000 employees in 1992. Today there are 13,000, and the company plans to lay off 2,000 more over the next 18 months. I know all about layoffs.

Marc

Even though America is wealthier than it was 35 years ago, it doesn't mean manufacturing is healthier. Presumably, we could ship all of our manufacturing overseas, and all the specialized jobs that go with it, totally devastating manufacturing, if, in turn, investors overseas were happy investing their avalanche of dollars gained from exports in U.S. government securities and U.S. consumer debt. As long as the value of the dollar remained stable, the system would work.

In the Winter 2005 Wilson Quarterly, Robert Aliber has written a thought-provoking tract called: "The Dollar's Day of Reckoning." Aliber looks at the macroeconomics of America's rapidly-growing trade deficit, and he sees imminent troubles. The U.S. trade deficit is growing too large to be sustainable: our indebtedness to overseas investors is growing by 16% per year, whereas the GDP is growing only by 6% per year. Basically, we are borrowing more and more from overseas investors in order to make our interest payments to them - an unsustainable situation, in a household as well as in a nation. Some of the debt is government debt - the U.S. budget deficit, and some of the debt is consumer debt (e.g., home loans). A lot of the government debt we are racking up isn't a terribly efficient use of the money (security, army, etc.). I bet a lot of the consumer debt isn't that useful either. In any event, the value of the dollar is at risk.

Aliber sees a lot of similarities between the U.S. situation, and other unfortunate countries' situation (e.g., Argentina, Russia, Japan, Thailand, etc.) since 1970. According to Aliber:

Today, the U.S. saving rate remains low because of the continued displacement of American saving by foreign saving. But America's reliance on foreign saving is excessive: The nation's international indebtedness is increasing at much too rapid a rate. The inevitable adjustment will require that American's household saving rate increase as reliance on foreign saving declines. ... [The United States] is engaging in Ponzi finance, and the game will soon be up.

Manufacturing has much to recommend it. As Aliber notes, tradable goods (e.g., cars) are generally worth more than nontradable goods (e.g., expert shelving) in an economy. I tend to think in more moral terms: manufacturing requires more skills, and hence has a better impact on the citizenry, than most other forms of economic activities.

John

Walt's point that the U.S. economy has grown dramatically since 1960 is, of course, completely accurate, but I feel that the basic picture has begun to change over the last 25 years. Starting in the 1980's the U.S. moved from being the biggest creditor nation to being the biggest debtor nation. This is a very fundamental change which is at the core of my concerns. While in many ways the standard of living is better now it is hard to cite specific material indications to prove that that is absolutely the case. Cars, for example. In nearly every part of the country today an individual who does not own a car cannot take advantages of job opportunities and is often forced into isolation and poverty. A car now is pretty much essential. As to television, if ever there was an "opiate of the masses" television is it. The shallow infotainment which passes for television news has kept the American people in a fantasy world controlled by political forces which control those "news" broadcasts. Newspapers are in dire straits across the country because people do not choose to read hard news. It's easier to turn on the television and be offered platitudes of pets rescued from frozen ponds and celebrity scandals. And a few lines of actual news are thrown in just to make people think they are being informed.

The American work force greatly expanded, particularly after about 1970 when women began working outside the home in large numbers. That contributed to improving the standard of living for American families. Yet how common are one wage earner families with several children as was the standard in 1960? In most cases that is financially impossible. I'm not saying that our standard of living has declined--only that things are not as clear cut as at first glance.

Manufacturing employment in the U.S., according to the best information I've been able to find, has fallen from 25% of the work force in 1960 to around 10% now. Now obviously a good deal of that is a result of factors such as new technology and increased efficiency, but the majority of it is a result of manufacturing moving outside the country. Whole sectors of the U.S. manufacturing economy are now absent. Small commercial aircraft (with the exception of corporate jets) are gone, having been replaced by planes form Brazil, the E.E.C. and Japan. Commercial ship building is gone. North Carolina's economy is reeling from the demise of wood furniture manufacturing. Hand tools and, more importantly, machine tools are nearly gone. I note the latter one because it illustrates that we are no longer producing products but are not even building the machinery to build them.

In your Bi-Lo analogy I see some basic differences with international trade. The Bi-Lo is a local business providing jobs and taxes for the local economy. To the extent that a local Hyundai dealership does the same the analogy works. But Bi-Lo gets most of its products--with the exception of coffee, some ethnic foods and some produce--from domestic suppliers which are providing jobs for American workers, thus keeping money circulating in the U.S. economy. In the case of international trade that money leaves the U.S. and goes to build foreign economies which, to a point, is not bad. But again, it is the amount of the trade deficit which I find ominous. As Marc noted, a trade deficit which grows at a rate far exceeding the growth rate of the GDP is not sustainable.

As to concerns about U.S. security, my main concern is Chinese power in the Far East. An unprecedented influx of cash into a totalitarian regime is not reassuring, particularly one which, with other foreign nations, holds 40+% of the US national debt. China could easily refuse to buy U.S. Treasury bonds (there are already indications this may happen soon) and cause inflation in the U.S. on the magnitude of that we experienced during the Mideast oil cutoff during the 1970's. That is a risk we should never take, especially when the result would be an ever greater increase in the already ghastly national debt caused by increased interest rates.

A bit more about my thoughts on tariffs. Canada has no significant trade barriers to the importation of U.S. products. Japan, on the other hand, has enforced strong barriers to U.S. imports, which is why I qualified my proposed tiered tariff system to address that situation. Nations which impose such barriers should have equal barriers to their products imposed by the U.S. As to Vietnam and Bangladesh, I cited them only as examples. There are many other third world nations like them. They can produce goods by paying workers pennies per hour but a tariff on such goods would serve as a strong incentive for their governments and private industry to improve the standard of living for their people. It would be the proverbial win-win situation whereby the U.S. would gain much needed revenue from tariffs and the exporting countries would improve social conditions. The tariffs would not seriously affect the workers in those third world countries since their labor rates would still make their products attractive on the world market. The poverty and pollution in those countries impacts the U.S. and the rest of the world. Poverty and hopelessness are fertile substrates for social and political unrest and extremism. Further, air pollution from countries such as China is now degrading air quality in the U.S. By giving third world nations trade incentives to improve their standards of living the US would be acting in its own interests as well as those of those third world nations.

I too oppose using tariffs to protect inefficient or noncompetitive industries as long as we take into account the whole picture--which includes social conditions of third world manufacturing countries. It is morally and socially wrong to tell experienced American workers that they must compete with foreign work forces that can produce the same product in dangerous and poverty-stricken cities for a small fraction of the U.S. production cost. A tariff would serve to level the playing field somewhat. We need foreign trade but we also need to protect American workers and other national interests.

Marc

Free markets are only approximations, of course, and free trade is an ideal. There are always limitations. One significant limitation in the world economy, as trade barriers ease, is the relative immobility of labor. In comparison, capital moves around the world with great ease. The Chinese government (among many others) is taking advantage of its large, impoverished population to offer the business world low-cost labor: an advantage that has more to do with desperation than to inherent efficiency. Economies get skewed that way. Once China owns the majority of the world's factories and becomes wealthier, presumably their education level will rise higher, and the disparities will ease, but for now, in a world where labor is immobile, concentrated in Asia, and desperate, and capital can move quickly, we are far from a global free trade universe.

As beneficial as free trade can be, national economies can sometimes improve through tarriffs and other barriers to trade (particularly if they are debtors). One example is Argentina: when that nation defaulted on its international debt in 2000, and refused to adhere to World Bank demands to reduce its budget deficit, its future looked bleak: the imminent decline of trade promised to be calamitous to national wealth. Significant restrictions on capital flight, however, plus its goverment's refusal to sacrifice its local economy in order to pay its debts, have helped the Argentina's outlook: still bad, but no longer as dire. A better example is the U.S. in the 19th Century, which used high tarriffs to shield its developing economy from British manufactures. Creditors benefit most from free trade: now that the U.S. is a debtor again (since 1980), we should revisit the question of tarriffs. Multi-national corporations (that usually benefit most from free trade) have a lot of influence in the U.S. government, but they could very well be opposed to America's real economic interests.

In other words, the best approach depends on circumstances, and a single-minded reliance on free trade will not be sufficient to protect people's interests. 'Free Trade' might prosper, but the U.S. might suffer. The pie might get bigger, but your slice might get smaller. We have less to benefit from free trade than we did even ten years ago.

Arizona Storm

It's one strange storm that's eager to please. It's moving more slowly than I expected, and it seems to be bigger than I expected too.

The cutoff low that the GFS model said would help deliver a punch into the Sierras exists as predicted off the southern CA coast (I thought it would be so far south and west that it might become part of the tropical easterlies instead), and the low is deeper than I thought. One consequence is that it's overcast today here in Sacramento (I thought the storm would be too small and fast-moving to have a pronounced effect here).

But the storm wants to please the NOGAPS model too, so it sent a split punch up the Colorado River Valley (raining pretty heavily in Las Vegas) and sent at least two punches into Sonora, with maybe more coming. But does that mean not enough rain in the AZ deserts? No, the storm is lingering long enough to get them too. Can't forget the Kaibab Plateau! So, lots of precipitation up there too. Something for everyone!

Both computer models *worked*, after a fashion, but the jet stream must be a bit sluggish, because everything is so SLOW and BIG. There isn't a lot of meteorological information gathered from over the eastern Pacific so the models may have been initialized poorly (kinda-garbage-in, kinda-garbage-out). So, reality has more fine structure, and it's much more interesting, really, than the model predictions.

Eric the DJ

Work bid me to go to Hamburger Mary's for lunch today, and of all people, Eric the DJ (who was working at Subway a year ago) now works there. Good to see him!

Eric has a Drum 'N Bass radio show on Leetradio every Thursday from 6 to 8 p.m. Give it a listen!

Jeff Gannon

Hoo boy! The Bush Administration has really stepped into it this time!

Montserrat Volcano Refugees

So even though their island was rendered almost uninhabitable by a volcano, the Department of Homeland Security insists the refugees have to return immediately? One fine idiot government we are blessed with these days!

Bumperstickers

Here are two nice ones I just saw:

Treehugging Dirt Worshipper

and:

Support Organic Farmers

These bumperstickers nicely describe my belief!

Now, as a Catholic, I'm sure Gabe would say that I'm merely filling the aching emptiness of my belief with various, pointless pagan bric-a-brac. Or is it the emptiness of my faith? Something's empty, right?

Now let's see if I remember, faith is an effort of the will, but belief is an effort of the intellect. That's right, isn't it Gabe? Now, are emotions part of the will or part of the intellect? Philosophy is a hard slog for my walnut-sized brain. I just get so, so... AGGGHHH!

Treehugging Dirt Worshipper

Treehugging Dirt Worshipper

Treehugging Dirt Worshipper

Phoenix Rain

Regarding the upcoming storm in AZ, the weather forecasts seem to be showing a rather diffuse hit on the state, with the main punch actually hitting Sonora. There is a secondary punch too: the NOGAPS model shows it travelling up the Colorado River Valley to the west of Phoenix, and the GFS model shows it even farther west, travelling into the southern Sierra Nevada. Both forecasts show most of AZ lying between the two punches, and thus missing the worst.

Looking at the current satellite pictures of the eastern Pacific, though, I'm not convinced there will be a split punch. In my opinion, the little eastern Pacific subtropical low they are relying on to split the punch is too far south and too far west to do the job. I'm thinking the storm will directly hit AZ, so rain will be plentiful over the whole state.

We'll see!

DMTC

Surprisingly, "Plan B" seems to be moving fastest among the financing options. The red-headed stepchild's rendezvous with Hooverville may be fairly brief....

Any Argument Will Do

Why don't the anti-global-warming folks have more credibility with their mainstream scientific opponents? Well, their exploitative tendency to grab any contrarian argument works against them. After a while, holding so many different, often-contradictory positions, they become blithering idiots:

...for some critics, any argument will do - regardless of its coherence with the argument they had before, or the one they will pick next.

Median vs. Average

Shouldn't these be called median temperatures, not average temperatures? And isn't the reason they do it this way is because otherwise they can't take advantage of all the Co-op weather stations worldwide that don't gather data on an hourly basis from which one could calculate an average temperature, but rather on a twice-daily basis? (Science news in the popular press is often badly corrupted).

Last year was the fourth warmest year on average for our planet since the late 1800s, according to NASA scientists.

To determine if the Earth is warming or cooling, scientists look at average temperatures. To get an "average" temperature, scientists take the warmest and the coolest temperatures in a day, and calculate the temperature that is exactly in the middle of those high and low values. This provides an average temperature for a day. These average temperatures are then calculated for spots all over the Earth, over an entire year.

Body Language

After any number of months, slowly coming to really like Kylie's "Body Language" album. Living in a universe of style, she's getting harder to "get" for an American who has little style and who would be happy with just danceable tunes. High concept Euro-Australo pop art is levitating higher all the time.

Ward Churchill

Fights back! Good for him!

There have been other victims of right-wing zeal. My Greek and Roman History Professor from undergraduate days, Richard Berthold of the University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, made insensitive remarks on Sept. 11th: “anyone who can bomb the Pentagon has my vote,” and was slow to apologize. Berthold subsequently was pilloried on local and national talk radio, faced a thug in his carport, and after a year was ultimately forced to resign. He was the canary in the coal mine. He was first, but many will follow.

Professors are not, and never have been, employees of any university - they are scholars, and they are given tenure by the university in anticipation that they can espouse political and social views, if they so wish, generally as they relate to the subject material of the class. I've taken classes from leftos and reactionaries both, and gotten useful ideas from them all, but the hallmark of the best is a fiery, fearless independence.

The ancient Greeks had an interesting custom: "ostrakos", or ostracism, whereby the community would exile an offensive person for a full year. But the person was free to rejoin the community after a year. The American Right recognizes no such civilized limitation on their power - they destroy the career, exile the teacher, and smash the school, with no limit on their arrogance.

Time to fight back. The Right won't stop until their own losses become unacceptable. Time to target right-wing professors making crude, insensitive comments, or flacking for big business (but nevertheless respecting those who hold unpopular opinions). Plenty of them out there! Fight fire with fire!

And speaking about protest, here is a local example, from Land Park, that is already having nationwide impact (via Drudge).

Sen. Mark Dayton

Doesn't want to run again (I wish he'd reconsider).

Meteorological Fraud at the WMO

Or, whatever happened to Mr. Hassan?

Lost Huygens Wind Data

Is partially recovered.....

Opportunity's Heat Shield

Sure left an impressive crater when it screamed to a halt last year on Mars!

Come On, Pay Up!

Britney's on the attack: her insurers don't want to pay for her knee injury last summer. It's a familiar story: a 'pre-existing condition' that she apparently 'forgot' to mention. Can't we just let that oversight slip past, like we let Dubya's WMD oversight slip past (a leader, by the way, whom she strongly supports, as we learned last year from Fahrenheit 9/11)?

From many quarters, I think I can hear the Britney snark starting up now......

Reid's Response

It's always hard to know how to respond to bullying. Daschle tried to ignore it, but ultimately it hurt him. Reid's approach hasn't been tried lately (strong, but not too strong), so let's give it a try - let's see if the White House backs off.

Just Too Precious

Tiny 'Orphan' Leona Craig, rocking out in grand, karaoke, Courtney-Love style, as Kaylynn Rothleder sang "Tomorrow," at "Annie" rehearsal, tonight.

Terpsichorean Curiosity

Why do fashion models walk that way?

But not every model takes walking lessons; some have a natural sense of presentation. "It depends on where the models are from," according to Andrew Weir, a New York casting director. "If they're from Brazil or South America, the walk is innate. The other girls have to watch the Brazilians for a season or two until they catch up."

There are a few walking styles. "If you say to the girls 'Do a Versace walk,' they know what that means—a va-va-voom, shake-it-like-you-might-break-it walk," says Weir. " 'Street' means no swish. It's strong, like the way people walk down a New York street." Most shows now use a near-natural street walk, described by Weir as "'Street' plus a little bit more." That means a pretty natural stride with no hands on hips or posing. But the walk is still slightly exaggerated: Some extra swagger makes skirts swish dramatically and gives tailored looks a bit of extra power.

Although people don't like to believe it, models are not big dieters. They are blessed with fast metabolisms.

We're Such a Great Country...

Cause we fight narcolepsy in the same, valiant way we fight terrorism (mostly unsuccessfully):

President Bush walked into an awkward unscripted moment in which he stated that carrying three jobs at a time is 'uniquely American.'

It Never Rains in Southern Arizona

Whassup Saguaro state?

Doug says there is a rumor of torrential rains here Thursday through Sunday--so, really? So much more snow got dumped last weekend, this is great. D.

Interesting...there is a "Pineapple Express" coming in your general direction, according to the FNMOC, starting Thursday evening, but the two computer models I generally look at are in disagreement. The GFS model shows a direct hit on AZ, but the NOGAPS model shows the direct hit being in Sonora, with plentiful rain in AZ, but probably little flooding (and also ending sooner, being mostly gone by Sunday).

All things being equal, NOGAPS is my model of choice, but I need to look harder before deciding (I'll decide on Monday for sure). I'll start updating you on the latest info....

Well, maybe there will be some flooding. With warm rain falling on snowpack at higher elevations, the streamflow might be considerable.

The term "Pineapple Express" is often used in California to signify a long band of moisture featuring heavy rain originating around Hawaii. I use the term more loosely, to signify any long band of moisture, featuring heavy rain, originating from the tropics, at roughly the same latitude as Hawaii. There is no reason, after all, why one can't have "Pineapple Expresses" all the way around the globe, in any semi-tropical to low-middle-latitude zone, in either hemisphere.

These kind of rains are what people tend to associate with El Nino: low overcast, warm, wet, persistent, and above all, focused, like a spear from the tropics, hitting rather small target areas at the point of the spear very hard. Sonora is at the point of this spear, and maybe AZ too, depending on the state of play of mid-latitude Rossby waves.

D. continues:

Is that = to Welcome? (pineapples were given to guests as 'welcome' in the South--which is why that theme is used a lot in furniture, wood moulding, etc.)

Well, if hurling with great force a prickly pineapple at startled guests qualifies as "welcome" in the South, then southern hospitality may be overrated.

It's presented in a basket, you goof, in their room. At the end of their stay or as a hint to move on they're given another.

Oh! Very genteel! And if they don't get the hint to move on, then and only then, do you pummel them with pineapples.

ABSOLUTELY!

"Martini Lounge" - Saguaro Martinis (you probably can't see the tiny saguaros in their glasses)

Idiot Spam

I get such weird spam:

Hello,
My name is Professor University Newsletter

Jonah Goldberg

Is a twit.

Those Who Don't Study History....

are doomed to repeat it.

President George W. Bush met with the Congressional Black Caucus Wednesday for the first time as a group in nearly four years, but what CBC members said stood out the most was the president's declaration that he was "unfamiliar" with the Voting Rights Act of 1965, one of the most significant pieces of legislation passed in the history of the United States.

At the conclusion of yesterday's 40-minute meeting, Bush ... was asked by Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2nd) whether he would support the re-authorization of a portion of the Voting Rights Act that must be approved every 25 years (It will come up for consideration next year).

"I don't know anything about the 1965 Voting Rights Act," Jackson recalled the president saying in an interview with the Chicago Defender.....

"It was so unbelievable to me that as soon as I walked out, I got Frank (Watkins, Jackson's top legislative aide) on the telephone, put (Congresswomen) Maxine (Waters, D-Calif.) and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), so that I could confirm what he just said is what I heard," Jackson said. Rep. Bobby Rush (D-1st) said he recalled the president saying he was "unfamiliar" with the Voting Rights Act.

"I was surprised and astounded," Rush told the Defender....

The bill guaranteed that African Americans and any other group would not be denied the right to vote, and put in place provisions to ensure that voting rights would not be trampled on by local and state officials....

Rush said Wednesday's meeting was different from the others because he has had a fractious relationship with the CBC, and was dealing with "more knowledgeable people around the different issues that affect the African American community."

"In that room you had 43 individuals whose whole life of activity and endeavor have been around trying to upgrade and uplift the life of Black America," Rush said. "We are elected into the Congress and we know the ins and outs of it and we know the machinations that the administration and the Republicans engage in and so, yea, we weren't wild-eyed and in a state of ecstasy just to meet the president. We came to be about business."...

As for [Condoleeza] Rice, Rush said the new secretary of state said "absolutely nothing. She was just there. For what reason, I'm not sure."

Progressivity

No, you idiots, progressivity refers to the tax rate, not the tax burden. This event just signifies the rich are getting more and more of the nation's income (as well as holding most of its wealth). If only the rich earned income, then of course, the rich would pay 100% of the income tax, and there wouldn't be a darn thing progressive about it:

The White House budget director Josh Bolten on Monday bragged to reporters how the nation most-wealthy will see an increase in tax burden under Bush's new budget.
...without the president's tax cuts that top 5 percent would be paying about less than 52 percent of our total income tax revenue. "After the president's tax cut that group is paying more than 54 percent of our total tax revenue. So the notion that the president's tax cuts have somehow made the code less progressive is wrong. The president's tax cuts have made the tax code more progressive."

Dad Gum Gummint

It's just a short step from defaming the 'dad gum gummint' to defaming the Republicans who run it. And it's just a short step from praising private business to praising Social Security, because its administration is separate from the rest of the gummint. Time for short steps!

Terraforming Mars

Adding greenhouse gases might warm things up, but it takes more than warmth to make a place habitable. The greenhouse gases (CO2 as well) would have to be removed at some point and buried in some manner so people could breathe. Then the place would cool off again. Some progress!

Annie

It's fun being FDR! I'm a quasi-Santa, with my alphabet agencies, orphan reindeer, and Social Security program. Just wish I could walk (and sing and act and dance, but that's a long-running problem)!

Meeka turned 14 tonight: Rice Krispie treats for everyone, as approved by the WPA and Judge Brandeis.

"National Review" Review of "Hotel Rwanda"

Gabe recommends the National Review's review of Hotel Rwanda:

Hibbs continues in my mind to review films rather well. I've always liked his thoughtfulness.

Hibbs makes a big mistake, though: a mistake that has the effect of letting conservatives off the hook. It wasn't a State Department spokeswoman whose taped statements were repeated exactly as stated, but rather the well-publicized words of the White House Press Secretary, Dee Dee Myers. Thus, the irony that Hibbs notes (the magazine cover showing Bill Clinton as 'Man of the Year') is even more pointed than he realizes.

Myers' evasive statements on genocide earned her well-deserved contempt. But the real problem wasn't just hers, or the State Department's, but rather Bill Clinton's, and America's conservatives'. The highest levels of the U.S. government averted their eyes, even as everyone else watched the unfolding horror. After Somalia, there was no consensus for an African military adventure, no matter how urgent the need. Republicans had no interest in such a thing, certainly, and they were lying in wait to shoot down any such effort. Fearing Republicans, the coward Clinton skipped past Rwanda, but he slowly developed some backbone: he eventually helped freeze the Bosnian crisis in place (the 1995 Dayton agreement), and finally budged on providing military assistance to Kosovo (1999), but only because he had been cornered by his own promises to do so. Clinton was such a coward in great measure because he was responding to the manifest distaste among American conservatives to doing anything effective about genocide.

Hibbs lets conservatives off way, way too easily - their crimes of omission, their isolationism, their small-mindedness. Instead, Hibbs aims at the hapless State Department. Such brave scapegoating!

Nice Place

Galt.

Messing With Pell Grants

The Bush Administration wants to raise typical Pell Grants - a noble sentiment - but save money in the process. How can that be done? The idea, apparently, is to make the banks take a bigger risk, with college loans:

But at least one idea, he [John E. Dean, special counsel for the Consumer Bankers Association] said, may be a tougher sell -- a plan to make banks assume a higher risk that students will default on loans, lowering the financial exposure for the government. That could prompt some banks to reduce loans to high-risk students, such as community-college students whose post-graduation income is less certain, Dean said.

Now, wasn't it in the final Presidential debate with Kerry last fall that Bush stressed education's role in keeping the work force employable in the face of technological change, and in particular, community-college education? Wasn't it? Well? And now they seem to be backing off from fulfilling that fine sentiment? What can one say?

Nice about the Pell Grant increases, which benefits the poorest students most of all, but at the direct expense of lower middle class students. In the last analysis, likely a bad development for poor college students in general! Get that class envy going, get the cultural wars stoked, where it hurts the most!

Etiwanda

One of my favorite tales from the power crisis was the abuse of the sad turbines at the Etiwanda power plant, near Ontario, east of LA. Turbines aren't made to be ramped up and down like that, but what the hell did Texas traders care when there was money to be made in the Golden State?

Enron Tapes

Some more Enron tapes transcripts have been released, and they continue to show Enron, among others, helped precipitate the 2000-2001 electricity crisis. Still, electricity deregulation was badly handled in 1996, and created the weaknesses that Enron was able to exploit.

Kevin Drum expresses some well-grounded outrage, but also reveals unfortunate naivete, with his opinion:

I hope there's no one left who still thinks California's problems were caused by too little power plant construction, or overly restrictive environmental regulations, or a badly constructed power grid, or mismanagement by Gray Davis.

Well, Kevin's hopes are dashed! All these other factors that Drum discounts nevertheless contributed to the crisis. Blaming Enron and the power traders alone is foolish. The traders helped set up the regulatory situation, but public officials like Steve Peace, who masterminded the 1996 deregulatory reform, went willingly to their own slaughter. The traders exploited regulatory and infrastructure weaknesses in order to bring the crisis into existence.

Power traders understood (and state officials didn't) that relying upon markets to set prices of commodities like electricity, which can't be effectively stored, REQUIRES a cushion of excess power supply to be readily available PLUS the capacity to make long-term contracts, in order to avoid price spikes. Governor Gray Davis was extremely reluctant to allow the making of long-term power contracts, and he displayed a near-pathological inability to make tough decisions in general, which just helped seal Californians' fate.

The California Energy Commission (CEC) largely discouraged the construction of new power facilities in California throughout most of the electricity-consuming dot-com boom of the 90's, until prompted to relax by the 1996 electricity market deregulation (and, in practice, really not until 1998, with the effort to license the Metcalf power plant near San Jose.) Thus, in 2000, California didn't have that much of a power supply buffer to work with.

Electricity was regulated in a piecemeal fashion that aggravated the California power crisis. Public officials were not acting in concert to prevent power outages. A significant fraction of California's power plants were required by air pollution districts around the state to be off-line at various times in 2000/2001, primarily for NOx retrofits. This forseeable reduction in supply apparently wasn't as well-coordinated as it might have been with the California Independent Service Operator. Better coordination from the top (namely Governor Gray Davis), and the emergency suspension of NOx retrofits, might have helped.

Problems with the power grid and the utility infrastructure aggravated the crisis: too few power lines to readily transfer power between Northern and Southern California, and inadequate natural gas storage capacity in the San Diego area.

The bright spot in the power crisis was how well PUBLIC power utility districts functioned, despite severe shocks: e.g., LA Water and Power, and Sacramento Municipal Utility District. Their long-term contracts saved them almost completely from blackouts. Elevators in Sacramento high-rises continued to operate when elevators in San Francisco (PG&E territory) came to a halt.

It wouldn't surprise me if the motivation of the traders was as much ideological arrogance as greed. Aggressive Republican free-marketers, exploiting a flawed market, against stupid California Democrats, symbolized by hapless "Aunt Millie."

We are already setting up Phase II of the California power crisis. After 2000, following the decline of the stock market, investment in new power facility construction slowed. Continued population growth guarantees increased power consumption, despite the fact that the salubrious climate and general energy-consciousness makes Californians the most electrically-thrifty people in the USA. Despite all that has happened, it really wouldn't take much to put us in crisis again.

Here is more of that story from the LA Times:

According to the newly released transcript, Enron traders on Jan. 16, 2001, hatched a plan to take an Enron-controlled power plant in Las Vegas off-line the following day. In a phone call, "Bill of Enron" informed "Rich," a Las Vegas power plant employee, that "we want you guys to get a little creative … and come up with a reason to go down."

The shutdown, he added, was "supposed to be, ah, you know, kinda one of those things."

In an effort to cooperate, Rich responded: "OK, so we're just comin' down for some maintenance, like a forced outage type thing?"

"I think that's a good plan, Rich," Bill said. "… I knew I could count on you."

The 52-megawatt plant was out of operation for several hours the next day, when rolling blackouts plagued Northern and Central California and about half a million homes and businesses lost power. At that same time, U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson had ordered suppliers to make power available in the West.

Some observers viewed the taped conversation as a window into Enron's broader strategic approach.

Through contracts with more than a dozen power plant owners, including municipal utilities in Glendale and elsewhere in California, Enron controlled 3,500 megawatts of electricity as of August 2000, according to documents uncovered by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in its investigation of Enron. That was enough electricity to serve more than 2.6 million homes."

The fact that Enron would jeopardize the health and safety of Western citizens to chase profits in the energy market is disgraceful," Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said Thursday. "But it's not just disgraceful on a human level — it's also illegal."

...Suggestions that Enron's plans to exploit the energy marketplace as much as three years before the 2000-01 energy crisis jarred some officials, who recalled how Enron executives were traveling the country about the same time making a case to deregulate the marketplace."Enron put out the most polished presentations, the glossy materials, the things they put out to every policymaker in the West," said Eric Saltmarsh, executive director of California's Electricity Oversight Board."

To know that it was basically a scam as far back as that says it wasn't just a fraud on the marketplace in 2000 and 2001, it was really a fraudulent ambition in creating what became of the California marketplace," Saltmarsh said. "In that sense, the [marketplace deregulation] was in some respects set up to fail."

Edging Away

I was always skeptical of the claim that Titan’s atmosphere might be rather similar to Earth’s early air, and thus might yield clues regarding the evolution of life. The claim had that desperate, please-save-our-budget-from-ignorant-Congressmen edge to it that NASA has perfected into an art. Now others are more open in their skepticism:

Well, you can forget that, says Bruce Jakosky, of the University of Colorado. "The reasons we originally looked to Titan are long gone. The putative reducing atmosphere of the early Earth -- one that was oxygen poor and hydrogen rich -- is no longer in fashion." Titan is its own world, and not a time capsule of our own.

Pithy Quote

In the latest issue of Esquire Magazine, R. James Woolsey, former CIA Director, makes the following observation regarding 'The War on Terror':

Terrorism is just the weapon. The war is not against terrorism any more than World War II was a war against kamikaze-ism.

Beinart Cashes In

Peter Beinart's flawed essay regarding the future of liberalism's foreign policy is going to be expanded into a book: a $600,000 cash advance! Wow! Not a promising start, though: Beinart wants to scapegoat fellow Democrats first.

Like Lenin (Bush) said, the capitalists (Democrats) will bid to provide the rope for which they will be hung. Republicans must be salivating over the intraparty squabble likely to follow:

[Beinart's Editor Adam] Bellow said that Mr. Beinart’s work will likely be the most anticipated of the navel-gazing—uh, soul-searching—genre. "The reception of Peter’s book, when it’s published, is going to be fascinating for those of us who follow cultural politics," he said. "It will reveal whether there remains any serious constituency in the Democratic Party for a traditional liberal approach to foreign policy."

Bad Air Day...

...in the Midwest. The air doesn't look that good around here either today.

Impact

I knew that "Fahrenheit 9/11" would have some impact in the world, but it wasn't until last night I heard first-hand of the film's effect.

The son of friends was considering joining the Army. Everything was on-track: the paperwork was done, and enlistment was imminent. The fellow saw the movie. The fellow changed his mind and is going to school instead.

Judith Miller's B-a-a-a-ck!

Just when things had started to settle down, this. (In honor of her glory, from Elton John's "Caribou" album):

I can bitch, I can bitch
`Cause I'm better than you
It's the way that I move
The things that I do

I entertain by picking brains
Sell my soul by dropping names
I don't like those, my God, what's that
Oh it's full of nasty habits when the bitch gets back

Impressive Animations

For a twisted world (I'm not sure if you need to sign in though).

Tax-Evader Thompson

Goes to the big house, on the taxpayer's dime, no less.

Physics Humor

Feb. 1, 1976: Heisenberg may have died today.

Bart Simpson and the West Sacramento Police Department

OK, 100 times on the blackboard:

• The accelerator is not a plaything

Not good enough? OK, how about these:

• The speed limit is a cap, not a floor
• Interstate-80 is not Satan's "Speed-Demon Highway"
• "80" is an Interstate number, not a speed limit
• Yolo County Police are not pawns for Aztec sacrifices
• DMTC rehearsal is not a life-threatening emergency
• "'cause" is a weak answer, even on the "Yolo Causeway"
• Other drivers are not "Fly-Over People"
• Flashing red lights don't mean fake a seizure

As you can probably tell, I ran afoul of the law this evening. Should have mouthed back to the cop Homer Simpson's famous utterance?:

Oh, yeah, what are you gonna do? Release the dogs? Or the bees? Or the dogs with bees in their mouth and when they bark, they shoot bees at you?

It's time to reproduce a 1997 chain E-Mail. The opening credits of "The Simpsons" shows Bart Simpson writing the same sentence over and over again on a chalkboard - reminiscent of the whole "write it 100 times" punishment - which establishes him as a troublemaker. Each episode is usually different. Someone (not me) apparently went through the trouble of taping all the Simpsons, watching them all and noting what Bart is writing on the board. These are the collected writings of Bart's chalkboard exercises shown during the opening credits.

• I will not carve gods.
• I will not spank others.
• I will not aim for the head.
• I will not barf unless I'm sick
• I will not expose the ignorance of the faculty.
• I saw nothing unusual in the teacher's lounge.
• I will not conduct my own fire drills.
• Funny noises are not funny.
• I will not snap bras.
• I will not fake seizures.
• This punishment is not boring and pointless.
• My name is not Dr. Death.
• I will not defame New Orleans.
• I will not prescribe medication.
• I will not bury the new kid.
• I will not teach others to fly.
• I will not bring sheep to class.
• A burp is not an answer.
• Teacher is not a leper.
• Coffee is not for kids.
• I will not eat things for money.
• I will not yell "She's Dead" at roll call.
• The principal's toupee is not a Frisbee.
• I will not call the principal "spud head".
• Goldfish don't bounce.
• Mud is not one of the 4 food groups.
• No one is interested in my underpants.
• I will not sell miracle cures.
• I will return the seeing eye dog.
• I do not have diplomatic immunity.
• I will not charge admission to the bathroom.
• I will never win an Emmy.
• The cafeteria deep fryer is not a toy.
• All work and no play makes Bart a dull boy.
• I will not say "Springfield" just to get applause.
• I am not authorized to fire substitute teachers.
• My homework was not stolen by a one armed man.
• I will not go near the kindergarten turtle.
• I am not deliciously saucy.
• Organ transplants are best left to professionals.
• The Pledge of Allegiance does not end with "Hail Satan."
• I will not celebrate meaningless milestones.
• There are plenty of businesses like show business.
• Five days is not too long to wait for a gun.
• I will not waste chalk.
• I will not skateboard in the halls.
• I will not instigate revolution.
• I will not draw naked ladies in class.
• I did not see Elvis.
• I will not call my teacher "Hot Cakes."
• Garlic gum is not funny.
• They are laughing at me, not with me.
• I will not yell "Fire" in a crowded classroom.
• I will not encourage others to fly.
• I will not fake my way through life.
• Tar is not a plaything.
• I will not Xerox my butt.
• It's potato, not potatoe.
• I will not trade pants with others.
• I am not a 32 year old woman.
• I will not do that thing with my tongue.
• I will not drive the principal's car.
• I will not pledge allegiance to Bart.
• I will not sell school property.
• I will not burp in class.
• I will not cut corners.
• I will not get very far with this attitude.
• I will not belch the National Anthem.
• I will not sell land in Florida.
• I will not grease the monkey bars.
• I will not hide behind the Fifth Amendment.
• I will not do anything bad ever again.
• I will not show off.
• I will not sleep through my education.
• I am not a dentist.
• Spitwads are not free speech.
• Nobody likes sunburn slappers.
• High explosives and school don't mix.
• I will not bribe Principal Skinner.
• I will not squeak chalk.
• I will finish what I sta
• "Bart Bucks" are not legal tender.
• Underwear should be worn on the inside.
• The Christmas Pageant does not stink.
• I will not torment the emotionally frail.

Isn't It Funny?

How we don't get color-coded terror alerts, now that the election is over?

Andrew Sullivan Eases Back

Sullivan was essential reading after September 11th: no one better caught the Zeitgeist. My argument with him has been his needy yearning to drop to his knees before George W. Bush. If a break can help cure him of his hero-worship, so much the better. The world needs good commentators. He was a good one once: he can be so again.

Hypoadrenia

It's funny how gonzo on-line medical literature can sound so authoritative at first, but slowly undermines its entire authority by just talking too much:

Hypoadrenia more commonly manifests itself within a broad spectrum of less serious, yet often debilitating, disorders that are only too familiar to many people. This spectrum has been known by many names throughout the past century, such as non-Addison’s hypoadrenia, sub clinical hypoadrenia, neuroasthenia, adrenal apathy and adrenal fatigue.

OK, sounds like a good start.

Non-Adison’s hypoadrenia (adrenal fatigue) is not usually severe enough to be featured on TV or to be considered a medical emergency. In fact, modern medicine does not recognize it as a distinct syndrome.

Really? Not even on TV? Then maybe, just maybe, it doesn't exist?

...In the more serious cases of adrenal fatigue, the activity of the adrenal glands is so diminished that the person may have difficulty getting out of bed for more than a few hours per day. With each increment of reduction in adrenal function, every organ and system in your body is more profoundly affected. Changes occur in your carbohydrate, protein and fat metabolism, fluid and electrolyte balance, heart and cardiovascular system, and even sex drive.

No! Not the sex drive!

...Although fatigue is a universal symptom of low adrenal function, it is such a common complaint and occurs in so may other conditions, that today’s medical doctors rarely consider pursuing an adrenal-related diagnosis when someone complaints of fatigue. In fact, fifty years ago, physicians were far more likely than their modern counterparts to correctly diagnose this ailment.

Maybe this is progress?

...Adrenal fatigue is a collection of signs and symptoms, known as a “syndrome.” It is not a readily identifiable entity like measles or a growth on the end of your finger. People with adrenal fatigue often look and act relatively normal. They may not have any obvious signs of physical illness, yet they are not well and live with a general sense of unwellness or “gray” feelings. They often use coffee, colas and other stimulants to get going in the morning and to prop themselves up during the day.

Maybe supernatural rodents live in their abdomens (like the large, eerie possum that Sparky menaced last night on our walk). Feed your rodent: have that cup of java! Swill that Nutrasweet!

They have intervals of confusion, increased difficulties in concentrating and less acute memory recall. They often have less tolerance than they normally would and are more easily frustrated. When the adrenals are not secreting the proper amount of hormones, insomnia is also one of the likely outcomes.

Wow! Maybe they do theater too!

As their condition worsens, it lays the foundation for other seemingly unrelated conditions such as frequent respiratory infections, allergies, rhinitis, asthma, frequent colds and a number of other health problems such as fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue syndrome, hypoglycemia, adult onset diabetes, auto-immune disorders and alcoholism.

Diabetes? Alcoholism?

These people may appear to friends and family to be lazy and unmotivated, or to have lost their ambition, when in reality quite the opposite is true; they are forced to drive themselves much harder than people with healthy adrenal function merely to accomplish life’s everyday tasks.

R - I - G - H - T!

Will my doctor treat adrenal fatigue?

Hell, your doctor is too busy coping with his own forgetfulness and alcoholism to bother treating you! Having misplaced his keys, your doctor can't even leave his house!

Generally, people’s understanding of hypoadrenia is vague. You might have heard someone sigh and say something like, “My adrenals are shot.”

I've never heard anyone say anything like that in my entire life!

These people do, indeed, have some inkling of why they are suffering from fatigue, but if pressed for an explanation, they know very few actual details about how adrenal function is directly related to their feelings of being “dragged out.”

Most people I know can't explain how a traffic light functions, much less their adrenal glands.

After reading this, I still have no idea if "hypoadrenia" actually exists! Did I learn anything at all? Wait: "intervals of confusion, increased difficulties in concentrating and less acute memory recall...less tolerance than they normally would." Damn, those are symptoms! I'm sick! REAL sick! Too bad about the sex drive, but break out the wine!

Bush Antichrist


(Bush Antichrist - credit: Keith Wise)

Hook 'em Horns! I tend to be secular in outlook: Keith at Subway tends to be religious. Nevertheless, we both agree Keith's creation here is - how shall I say - inspired!

[UPDATE: Keith Wise, who created the Bush Antichrist image I posted two years ago, now has a Web Site, where he offers talismans, tarot readings, and other items on the occult side of life.]

You Say "Bick" and I Say "Bike", Let's Call The Whole Thing Off

(Reference above to Sam Bicke). Courtesy of Gabe, from the movie, Conspiracy Theory:

Jerry: David Berkowitz, Ted Bundy, Richard Speck...

Alice: What about them?

Jerry: Serial killers. Serial killers only have two names. You ever notice that? But lone gunmen assassins, they always have three names. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, Mark David Chapman...

Alice: John Hinckley. He shot Reagan. He only has two names.

Jerry: Yeah, but he only just shot Reagan. Reagan didn't die. If Reagan had died, I'm pretty sure we probably would all know what John Hinckley's middle name was.

Jerry: I just thought of another one: James Earl Ray, the guy who got Luther King. Then of course, there's Sirhan Sirhan. I still haven't figured that one out. Maybe it's Sirhan Sirhan Sirhan, I don't know.

See Arnold Run

I was curious about the A&E television film, to see if any reference was made to the other gubernatorial candidates. No references, of course: it was all Arnold worship, all the time. I was most surprised how little mention was made of Tom McClintock and Cruz Bustamante (but, of course, both remain in state government, and I'm sure out of prudence, the filmmakers kept references to these important figures to a bare minimum).

One scene caught my eye, though. The (uncredited) photographer taking pictures of Bodybuilder Arnold with three lovelies on the beach sure looked like David Hume Kennerly, a photojournalist who helped start a Web Site called Candidate Camera. Gateway, Inc., passed out digital cameras to the candidates and encouraged them to take photos of their individual campaigns. A handful of the images are still on-line.

(Here is my essentially-identical comment at imdb, with any feedback.)

Inconvenient, Off-Message, Recent Iraqi History Lesson

From the inimitable and essential Juan Cole, who doesn't have the luxury of caving in to Bush Administration cheerleading lies:

Moreover, as Swopa rightly reminds us all, the Bush administration opposed one-person, one-vote elections of this sort. First they were going to turn Iraq over to Chalabi within six months. Then Bremer was going to be MacArthur in Baghdad for years. Then on November 15, 2003, Bremer announced a plan to have council-based elections in May of 2004. The US and the UK had somehow massaged into being provincial and municipal governing councils, the members of which were pro-American. Bremer was going to restrict the electorate to this small, elite group.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani immediately gave a fatwa denouncing this plan and demanding free elections mandated by a UN Security Council resolution. Bush was reportedly "extremely offended" at these two demands and opposed Sistani. Bremer got his appointed Interim Governing Council to go along in fighting Sistani. Sistani then brought thousands of protesters into the streets in January of 2004, demanding free elections. Soon thereafter, Bush caved and gave the ayatollah everything he demanded. Except that he was apparently afraid that open, non-manipulated elections in Iraq might become a factor in the US presidential campaign, so he got the elections postponed to January 2005. This enormous delay allowed the country to fall into much worse chaos, and Sistani is still bitter that the Americans didn't hold the elections last May. The US objected that they couldn't use UN food ration cards for registration, as Sistani suggested. But in the end that is exactly what they did.

So if it had been up to Bush, Iraq would have been a soft dictatorship under Chalabi, or would have had stage-managed elections with an electorate consisting of a handful of pro-American notables. It was Sistani and the major Shiite parties that demanded free and open elections and a UNSC resolution. They did their job and got what they wanted. But the Americans have been unable to provide them the requisite security for truly aboveboard democratic elections.

With all the hoopla, it is easy to forget that this was an extremely troubling and flawed "election." Iraq is an armed camp. There were troops and security checkpoints everywhere. Vehicle traffic was banned. The measures were successful in cutting down on car bombings that could have done massive damage. But even these Draconian steps did not prevent widespread attacks, which is not actually good news. There is every reason to think that when the vehicle traffic starts up again, so will the guerrilla insurgency.

The Iraqis did not know the names of the candidates for whom they were supposedly voting. What kind of an election is anonymous! There were even some angry politicians late last week who found out they had been included on lists without their permission. Al-Zaman compared the election process to buying fruit wholesale and sight unseen. (This is the part of the process that I called a "joke," and I stand by that.)

This thing was more like a referendum than an election. It was a referendum on which major party list associated with which major leader would lead parliament.

Many of the voters came out to cast their ballots in the belief that it was the only way to regain enough sovereignty to get American troops back out of their country. The new parliament is unlikely to make such a demand immediately, because its members will be afraid of being killed by the Baath military. One fears a certain amount of resentment among the electorate when this reticence becomes clear.

Evita Closes

Large closing audience! Augurs well for for the future. Strike went better than I expected (it's those well-designed modular sets, plus the many hands).

Liked the fact we now store the stricken sets at the New Theater (helps empty out the storage units that way, plus we lay a firmer claim to the property). It was eerie driving into the New Theater after dark (it's large!) Good pizza (just too much).

We need Andee to take more roles in more shows (Andee as Annie, Andee as Aldonza, Andee as Judd...well, maybe there are limits). Michael shaved immediately after the close (I like a scruffy Michael - evidently he disagrees).

Sullivan

Sullivan has many virtues, but steadiness of judgment is not one of them. This isn't a man you want to follow into battle. Unfortunately, many Americans did.

You can say that again! Almost bipolar, even! Yet, let's remember that many of us also followed Bush into Iraq, even if reluctantly. Political ADD is almost epidemic these days.

Clear Skies

Here is a useful summary of environmentalist complaints against "Clear Skies." As a dispersion modeler, I have to say I'm baffled about this particular battle, but that's because it doesn't touch my core activities, just the eventual outcome.

Revive The Sixties' Paranoid Style

Max Boot doesn't like Seymour Hersh's investigative reporting that much:

It's hard to know why anyone would take seriously a "reporter" whose writings are so full of, in Ted Kennedy's words, "maliciousness and innuendo." That Hersh remains a revered figure in American journalism suggests that the media have yet to recover from the paranoid style of the 1960s.

The actions of the Bush Administration, based on non-stop fanciful fictions, merit precisely such skepticism, however. If the press weren't such a scurvy band of lick-spittle eunuchs, we wouldn't have seen the Plame scandal, or had to read the insidious lies of power-currying Judith Miller and Laurie Mylroie. The press are a target. Paranoia is appropriate! And what does Seymour Hersh say?

...we all deal in "macro" in Washington. On the macro, we're hopeless. We're nowhere. The press is nowhere. The congress is nowhere. The military is nowhere. Every four-star General I know is saying, "Who is going to tell them we have no clothes?" Nobody is going to do it. Everybody is afraid to tell Rumsfeld anything. That's just the way it is. It's a system built on fear. It's not lack of integrity, it's more profound than that. Because there is individual integrity. It's a system that's completely been taken over -- by cultists.

Is that paranoia, or is that an apt description of reality? Speak Truth to Power!

A Better Bumpersticker

Caution - Blonde Thinking

Bumpersticker

Never seen this bumpersticker before:

Choice - What a beautiful right

What can one say? (Tone deaf, for a start....)

Britney Spears

This is the time of day when all my biorhythms crash all at once. I'm barely awake. And for some reason, I'm worried about Britney Spears.

I don't know why. It's silly, of course. It reminds me, when O.J. Simpson was arrested, I read about this shocked fellow from New Guinea who couldn't sleep, thinking about how O.J. had been unjustly accused of murder. Worrying about Britney has just about the same relevance in my life as worrying about O.J. did for the New Guinea fellow.

By why do people say snarky things about her? It's the same kind of snide superiority masking alarm and fear that people showed to Marilyn Monroe. And even though Marilyn showed herself to be an excellent film comedienne and Britney's acting ability has left people underwhelmed so far ("... so ill I had to take a week off work"), at least Britney has time to figure it out. After all, Marilyn studied acting very hard. Marilyn learned her trademark walk from choreographer Jack Cole - it wasn't all natural talent. Like Marilyn, Britney has a tragic weakness: pills in the case of Marilyn: bad knees in the case of Britney. Such a weakness for such a kick-ass dancer!

Anyway, to those people on the 1999 California State Fair midway, who made disparaging remarks when I threw the ball, knocked over the stacked milk bottles, and won the poster of impossibly-fresh Britney, all I can say is:

And it seems to me you lived your life
Like a candle in the wind.
Never knowing who to cling to
When the rain set in.

Big Feedlots and Air Quality

When the cow patties catch fire

In piles so large it's a pyre

What firefighter can aspire

To win in such smoky mire?

More Tales of Sacramento at Night

If the weather is bad when I walk my dog Sparky late at night, I like to wear my dark blue trench coat. The trench coat makes me feel like a winged avenger passing silently through the empty streets of Sacramento, a righteous Druid from the dark side of the Moon, taking strength from winter mists emanating from the Earth.

Yet, I think others see me in a different light.

Last night, the weather was windy and wet (although not that cold) - still good enough for the trench coat. On the way to drop some mail off at the Post Office, I stopped to loiter outside the AM/PM convenience market, speaking loudly through the little security slit to the clerk, who was locked-in the store for the graveyard shift.

An African-American woman approached to make a purchase. Upon observing:

• my wrinkled, mud-spattered trench coat;
• my age-battered wide-brim Australian hat squashed over my head;
• my non-descript jeans and amorphous shoes; plus,
• a friendly mutt, unusually unkempt in the wind;

the woman knew where her Christian duty lay on such a dark night. Sweet thing, she offered to buy me a cup of hot cocoa!

Third Hack Caught!

ANOTHER conservative columnist paid by the government! My, my, my!

Shroud of Turin

The latest scientific finding regarding the is-it-or-isn't-it-real controversy concerning the Shroud of Turin supports the Shroud's claims to great age - sufficient to derive from Biblical times. But what caught my eye is that the New Mexican chemist in charge of the study is disagreeing with the Arizona team of scientists who tested the Shroud previously: the team who were at the University of Arizona when I was there, in the early to mid-80's.

New Mexicans disagreeing with Arizonans: this cannot be! I've lived in both places for extended periods. Both states, the last of the lower 48, were admitted to the Union within a month of each of other, in 1912. If these folks disagree, then parts of my brain will explode! WHO can I trust?

(and if you say trust in faith, Gabe, I will submit you to rigorous Hegelian analysis!)

Cheryl B.-C.

Crossing my fingers for you, Cheryl!

Bush Pushes the "Internets" Again

The White House announced that it will propose that the federal government spend $125 million in next year's budget to test computerization of health records.

What mystifies me is why Bush thinks this is a priority. After all, medical offices DO use computer technology. California's Kaiser Permanente offshored its medical records to India: does he want the U.S. to do the same with a centralized medical registry? I mean, that's the most "efficient" thing to do, isn't it?

Bizarro Weather

Snow paralyzes Algeria and Tunisia!

Oil

Like George Orwell said, the world needs a lot fewer novelists, and a lot more people who write almanacs. For those moments in heated debate, when you need quick information about how much oil comes from overseas, or where the U.S. fields are, here are useful links. (Courtesy of Michael S.D., who is in a ranting mood today!)

Zarqawi

Had him. Didn't recognize him. Let him go.

TNR Keeps Laying Eggs

First, Peter Beinart's attack on Michael Moore, and now this! David Callahan at TNR is still focused on the Gore agenda, and wants the Democratic Party to go after Hollywood and its shoddy values. He defends the concept of an attack on Tinseltown:

Filmmaker Michael Moore recently warned that it would be a mistake for the party to pull away from Hollywood, saying that "this is where they need to come to learn how to tell a story" and that America "likes to vote for Hollywood." Moore may be right on the first point. On the second, he should know better. The perceived elitism of the Democratic Party is now its number-one liability and ties to Hollywood play right into that perception, which is why Bush had such a field day with Kerry's "heart and soul" gaffe. What's the Matter With Kansas author Thomas Frank got it right when he wrote last July that "Hollywood stars are as close as America comes to an aristocracy, and being instructed on how to be kinder and better people by pseudo-rebellious aristocrats can't help but rub people the wrong way."

Callahan is wrong. Even though Hollywood stars make average Americans itch, so do other sorts of millionaires. Gore's attacks on Hollywood did not make him appear to be more of an average guy - quite the opposite, in fact. Limousine liberals like Gore and Kerry are hobbled from the outset from successfully carrying out distracting, demagogic attacks on other limousine liberals in Hollywood. Like Michael Moore, Arnold Schwarzenegger has a better sense of how to do these things: he NEVER attacks Hollywood. Neither should the Democrats! Intra-party fighting should be kept to a minimum. The number-one liability of the Democrats isn't its perceived elitism: the lack of policy ideas and craven deference to Republicans are the main enemies.

Columnist Maggie Gallagher

Another conservative hack getting paid with taxpayer money to push the conservative agenda.

Republican Congressional Corruption

Compared to the Democrats, not even close:

Conference committees added 3,407 pork projects -- never subject to any debate or amendments -- to the 2004 appropriations bills, compared with 47 additions to the final budget passed under Democratic control a decade ago.

My Opinion on Climate Change?

I always thought it was big mistake for the folks concerned about global warming to push a regulatory approach (Kyoto Protocol) as a solution. Unlike criteria pollutants, whose emissions are somewhat amenable to control, greenhouse emissions are difficult to control except by scaling back combustion. In addition, the greenhouse problem is cumulative in nature: scaling back emissions just delays the problem, it doesn't solve it.

Free debate is the best way for contrarians and climate scientists to come to a common understanding. The trouble, of course, is that when government action is under consideration, free debate becomes scarce. Interests speak then. Interests insist on no action. And that is what will happen. Except for opening ANWR, of course.

Regarding global warming, it's likely to happen, and may already be happening: CO2 levels are some 15% higher today than when I was born. Yet, the expression of that warming may be modulated significantly, particularly by cloud cover.

A technological revolution is required. Environmental folks should be speaking the language of revolution: real revolution, not regulation. Hybrid cars, not Kyoto Protocol. The oil interests realize that worldwide oil production is at or near its peak, and they may need to change their approach in time, perhaps largely abandoning oil. Big Oil is ready, or will be ready before too long, to be peeled away from Big Auto, because they aren't dummies, and they need to move on. Big Auto will resist for a longer time. Environmentalists need to change their approach, because regulation won't work for this problem.

Why I'm a Liberal and Not a Libertarian

In the 2003 gubernatorial recall election, I was a bit surprised at the libertarians (like Ned Roscoe)....they seemed unusually ready to throw in the towel: for example, their willingness not to participate in elections (kind-of rational in one sense, since any one vote has almost no impact, but totally stupid in another sense, since it's the combined impact of many votes that make the difference). Libertarians seemed almost too rational for their own good - like the Jacobins of Revolutionary France (but without the guillotine, of course).

Myself, I'm an unreconstructed liberal. Give me the dead hand of the regulatory state any day! (At least, when it can do any good). Growing up in NM, which, economically speaking, is basically a colony of Texas, and which receives $2 in federal funds for every $1 exacted in federal taxes (2-to-1 being the highest proportion of any state, according to the Wall Street Journal), being a liberal was, for me, the only reasonable ideology to hold. Conservative ideology, with its emphasis on standing on your own two feet, applied to the fragile communities on the bleak highland mesas of the SW, means, more often than not, annihilation.

False Alarm

Yet it was Drudge who PROMOTED this false alarm in the first place ('Boston Street Gang Linked to 'Al Qaeda'")! This was HIS baby! He gets paid to yank the alarm chain, and he gets paid to let go of the chain! What an ass!

Dollar's Day of Reckoning

In the Winter 2005 Wilson Quarterly, Robert Aliber has written a thought-provoking tract called: "The Dollar's Day of Reckoning." Aliber looks cold-bloodedly at the macroeconomics of America's rapidly-growing trade deficit, and he sees imminent troubles. The U.S. trade deficit is growing too large to be sustainable, and the situation will correct itself soon, likely to our sorrow. Aliber's purpose isn't to condemn, but rather to explain:

America's falling dollar and mounting international debt are not, as pundits often declare, the wages of profligacy and sin. They are the inevitable products of dysfunctional international financial arrangements - a system that now appears likely to come crashing down, with alarming implications for the American economy.

Aliber isn't interested so much in the particularities of bursting economic bubbles (e.g.: Japan, 1990; SE Asia, 1997) so much as their similarities, especially since 1970:

The pattern is similar in all the episodes of boom and collapse surveyed here, as well as in Mexico (1994), Russia (1998), Brazil (1999); and Argentina (2001). The growth rate of each country's indebtedness (or the indebtedness of a large sector of its economy) was substantially higher than the growth rate of its GDP, and significantly higher than the interest rates the country paid on the borrowed funds. The difference between the two rates of growth was not sustainable.

The U.S. is in a similar bind today:

Today, the U.S. saving rate remains low because of the continued displacement of American saving by foreign saving. But America's reliance on foreign saving is excessive: The nation's international indebtedness is increasing at much too rapid a rate. The inevitable adjustment will require that American's household saving rate increase as reliance on foreign saving decline. ... [The United States] is engaging in Ponzi finance, and the game will soon be up.

And the outlook?

The primary variable that must change is the U.S. trade deficit. It must decline to between $100 and $200 billion a year from its current level of around $600 billion. ...If the decline (in foreign demand for U.S. dollar securities) is too rapid, the value of the dollar could plummet, while inflation and interest rates on U.S. dollar bonds surge.

It's interesting to think about what his observations might mean for our society. Who will we sell our tradable goods to when everyone else seems to want to export here: the Europeans, maybe? Yet, since the 70's, the high value of the dollar has helped ruin our manufacturing base. Hell, even Boeing can't make a dent anymore in Europe (hello, Airbus!) Will we see mass unemployment? Sky-high interest rates? Plummeting real estate values? And when? Sobering stuff!

Majestic 12

We are all conspiracy-minded these days! Keith at Subway is making a direct connection between Rumsfeld's newly-revealed Strategic Support Board, and a revived 'Majestic 12', the panel of government officials that "helped cover up the 1947 Roswell incident." Interesting speculation!

Chris Landsea Bails on IPCC Process

Chris Landsea senses a deterioration in the political climate at Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regarding what he sees as poltical grandstanding by Kevin Trenberth:

However, this case is not an honest scientific discussion conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC has used that position to promulgate to the media and general public his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR [3rd Assessment Report]. This becomes problematic when I am then asked to provide the draft about observed hurricane activity variations for the AR4 [4th Assessment Report] with, ironically, Dr. Trenberth as the Lead Author for this chapter. Because of Dr. Trenberth's pronouncements, the IPCC process on our assessment of these crucial extreme events in our climate system has been subverted and compromised, its neutrality lost. While no one can "tell" scientists what to say or not say (nor am I suggesting that), the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and entrusted to him to carry out this duty in a non-biased, neutral point of view. When scientists hold press conferences and speak with the media, much care is needed not to reflect poorly upon the IPCC. It is of more than passing interest to note that Dr. Trenberth, while eager to share his views on global warming and hurricanes with the media, declined to do so at the Climate Variability and Change Conference in January where he made several presentations. Perhaps he was concerned that such speculation - though worthy in his mind of public pronouncements – would not stand up to the scrutiny of fellow climate scientists.

Brazucas

Interesting story by Joel Millman in today's Wall Street Journal (I don't have a link), discussing how a better economy in developing countries, plus a more integrated world economy (featuring more relaxed visa policies elsewhere in the world), promotes emigration to the USA, instead of discouraging it. Case in point: the rapidly growing population of 'Brazucas' crossing across the Mexican border into the U.S. It's getting easier all the time for Brazilians to take a shot at entering the U.S.:

Brazilians being held here in El Centro at the U.S. immigration prison say they can get to the U.S. for as little as $1,500 - the price of a cheap ticket to Mexico City and bus fare to the border. Others insist they can travel all the way to Boston for no money down; they don't have to pay until smugglers get them to their destination.

Edjalma Andrade de Oliveira, a 36-year-old taxi driver from the town of Teixeira de Freitas in Brazil's Bahia state, says he traveled on credit when he left home in November. He says he wanted "to maximize my work opportunities" by leaving Brazil, and expected to land a job as a janitor once he reached the U.S.

Scaremongers

Why do I fall for this crap anymore? Here's Drudge whoring for a "Frontline" TV program Monday night on Al Qaeda's activities in Europe:

Al Qaeda's New Front: Terrorist activity in Western Europe.... Developing... High Impact Monday Nite... 'Alarming threat'...

Yet Drudge is what some low-lifes call a 'success.' Instead of whining, I guess I should respect that success and emulate him:

Vixen Vampire Minister of Health and Labor Spontaneously Combusts at Cabinet Meeting ('I have one thing that counts, and that is my heart; it burns in my soul, it aches in my flesh, and it ignites my nerves.') Developing.... Many Dead... Consuming fire spreads ...Camisados strip and become descamisados overnight. Treasury at risk ('I can't stop to count.... I have one thing that counts....') And where is Magaldi? High Impact Friday night...

Meaning, of course, that DMTC's last weekend of "Evita", starring Andrea Eve Thorpe, commences with Friday evening's performance at the Varsity Theater in Davis!



Scared witless, aren't you? Can't wait for more, can you? (I've got to do this more often....)

America vs. American POWs

As a consequence of our having abandoned the Geneva Conventions, former American POWs now find that the U.S. sides with Saddam's regime against their claims!

Yet when 17 of our tortured Gulf War POWs and 37 of their family members said "enough" and joined together to bring a historic civil action to hold their Iraqi torturers liable, they were shocked—having won their case in federal court—to find the Department of Justice seeking to erase their judgment and "absolve" their torturers.

The Imposing Humvee.....Obsolete?

"You go to war with the army you have," as one arrogant fool has been heard to proclaim. Still, it makes you wonder:

Stung by criticism that its Humvees and larger transport vehicles are out of step with fighting an insurgency in Iraq, and with soldiers still being killed and maimed by roadside bombs, the Army this week gathered 44 military contractors here to help remake its transport vehicles.

...After all, the more than 100,000 transport vehicles were designed to move behind front lines, not operate in battle zones with no boundaries.

The officers say they want the next Humvee-type vehicles and larger transport vehicles to be faster, more agile, more fuel-efficient and able to have armor taken on and off like a medieval knight before battle. They want the vehicles to carry more equipment and be much easier to service.

..."The way we thought we would use trucks five or six years ago is different than the way we are using them today, and it's different because the environment in which we're using trucks is different," he said. "Our Army as well as the rest of the military was designed to fight on a different battlefield."

Charging for Grocery Bags

Actually, not a bad idea! A small, nominal charge will encourage reuse of the suckers. I know I don't reuse, and I've got too many of them piled up.

Leonard Padilla Eyes the Maloofs

According to Graswich's column this morning, Leonard has a stake in a new arena:

Leonard likes the arena idea but says the deal depends on billionaire Kings owners Joe and Gavin Maloof paying off the $85 million loan the Sacramento City Council made to the Kings in 1997. "They have to pay it, even if it means selling a casino," Leonard said. "If they try some sleight-of-hand business about not paying every cent back, I'll make them pay."

San Francisco Anti-Abortion March

Gabe had some funny stories about participating in the march, and what people yelled from the sidelines. Notable shout-outs included:

• all the men yelling, "Get out of my uterus;"
• the broad-minded fellow yelling, "Get out of here with your intolerant views;" and,
• the fellow yelling, "Get your God out of my Body!"

Plus, the fellow yelling, 'Separation of Church and State! It's in the Constitution!" (the Constitution doesn't actually use that phrase, but it does forbid the establishment of a state church, no doubt reflecting the influence of deists like Thomas Jefferson, who was "author of the Bill for Establishing Religious Freedom instituting separation of church and state in Virginia, passed in 1786.")

Gabe adds:

It was a very moving experience. I was quite amazed by the turnout. We apparently had something like 6,000 to 7,000 people. [The opposition] had something like 3,000 people, according to the story, but it seemed a little smaller than that, but I have NO idea. It was rather peaceful, from my vantage point.

On his brand-new blog, 'Of Mites and Wonder,' Gabe expands on his experiences:

Amidst the obscenities hurled at us and the surreal Disney-like-It's-a-Small-World-After-All chanting from those opposed to our march. I particularly remember three young women chanting "If you don't want an abortion, then don't have one," and others, such as "Not the Church, not the State, women will decide our fate!"

(For the record, I'm pro-choice, but political marches nevertheless make for blogworthy stories.)

Strategic Support Branch

Why is Rumsfeld so determined to keep the Strategic Support Branch such a secret? Is Rumsfeld living a fantasy of total power? Who guarantees the focus of this organization isn't really warfare against the CIA? It's our money and our authority: it's time for an accounting.

A Hispanic Viewpoint Regarding Alberto Gonzales

I heartily endorse this Letter to the Editor in the Sacramento Bee (Jan. 21, 2005):

Ignoring heritage of torture

As a person of Latino descent, I am saddened that, in a time that I should be filled with pride that a fellow Latino has been nominated for attorney general, I am embarrassed by it. Alberto Gonzales' memory seems to stop at our southern border. Our Latino heritage, hence our collective memory, unfortunately is filled with the screams, scars and tears of those from Mexico down to Chile who suffered at the hands of governments whose policies are reflected in Gonzales' legal reasoning.

We cannot allow this legalistic mind to be our top cop, charged with upholding the laws of this truly free nation.

- Julio Hernandez, Citrus Heights

Waist-Deep Powder in the West

Cool! At Park City, just east of Salt Lake City:

...because of the southerly flow from the most recent storms, the base snow depths in Park City and at the nearby Canyons ski areas rivaled those of the legendarily inundated ski areas of Alta and Snowbird on Little Cottonwood Canyon. And, oddly, there is currently little or no snow on the ground in nearby Salt Lake City.

"People get shocked," said Ms. Parry, "because they're driving up from Salt Lake, and suddenly they cross Parleys Summit and it's a winter wonderland."

Greenspan The Chump

The Bush team have played Greenspan like the willing chump he is. Now Greenspan is getting uncomfortable:

The new element is a rising concern at the Fed about the nation's imbalances: the federal deficit, which hit $413 billion in 2004; a low and declining national savings rate; evidence of speculative behavior among investors and consumers; and the country's enormous trade and financial deficit with the rest of the world.

In November, Mr. Greenspan noted that foreign claims on United States assets - essentially the nation's net indebtedness to the rest of the world - were now equal to one-quarter of the nation's gross domestic product. The trade deficit this year is almost certain to exceed $600 billion - nearly 6 percent of the nation's economy, and still climbing.

Too late, Alan! This is YOUR Republican legacy! The Democrats never did anything that could remotely compare to this disaster! I hope Hell has a debtor's prison JUST FOR YOU!

For The Dogs

Someone stole my pooper-scooper. I can't imagine why.

Climate Change

Interests (Big Oil, Big Auto, etc.) love trying to poke holes in the scientific studies of global warming, puffing up their side, no matter how bad the science, and defaming others, no matter how well-founded their opinions are. As a friend points out regarding this interesting discussion:

Unfortunately, in the minds of the contrarians and their supporters, each criticism merely adds weight to their claim that their point of view is being SUPPRESSED. Those who chose to believe the Soons and Baliunases will not be dissuaded by arguments made made by the likes of Mann and Schmidt.

I always thought it was big mistake for the folks concerned about global warming to push a regulatory approach (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) as a solution. Unlike criteria pollutants, whose emissions are somewhat amenable to control, greenhouse emissions are difficult to control except by scaling back combustion. In addition, the greenhouse problem is cumulative in nature: scaling back emissions just delays the problem, it doesn't solve it.

Free debate is the best way for contrarians and climate scientists to come to a common understanding. The trouble, of course, is that when government action is under consideration, free debate becomes scarce. Interests speak then. Interests insist on no action. And that is what will happen. Except for opening ANWR, of course.

A technological revolution is required. Environmental folks should be speaking the language of revolution: real revolution, not regulation. Hybrid cars, not Kyoto Protocol. The oil interests realize that worldwide oil production is at or near its peak, and they may need to change their approach in time, perhaps largely abandoning oil. Big Oil is ready, or will be ready before too long, to be peeled away from Big Auto, because they aren't dummies, and they need to move on. Big Auto will resist for a longer time. Environmentalists need to change their approach, because regulation won't work for this problem.