And I Thought Fred Was The Neanderthal

Forecast thinking is pretty much unchanged this morning regarding Hurricane Wilma....landfall after sunset on Saturday in the Fort Myers, FL area. It is interesting how quickly the forecast thinking coalesced, going from scattered to lockstep in less than a day.

In the Tampa area, it will mean a lot of wind (I'm thinking 40 mph sustained winds, with 50 mph gusts), and a lot of rain, from sunset Saturday till at least sunrise Sunday. Power outages are likely, so stock up on batteries, flashlights, ice, water, fuel, etc. The situation doesn't demand that Tampans flee (not yet anyway), but they should at least mentally-prepare where to go (right now, going south seems to be a bad idea).

Here is what the National Hurricane Center says:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.