Friday, September 09, 2005
Progressive Blogs Rule!
Isn't this interesting!:
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Isn't this interesting!:
Two years ago, Instapundit had an audience three times larger than Dailykos. Now, Dailykos is the equal of nearly the entire conservative blogosphere, and five other progressive blogs, Talking Points Memo, Eschaton, Crooks and Liars and AmericaBlog, all have audiences larger than Instapundit, which remains the largest conservative blog in terms of audience size.
In a media and political world dominated by conservatives, the blogosphere is emerging as a rising island--soon, perhaps, a continent--of total progressive dominance. As we progressives begin to turn the tide all over the country, it should be noted that the first place where the tide began to turn was on blogs. The revolution really wasn't televised after all.
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Daily Show Humor
From Daily Kos:
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From Daily Kos:
Jon Stewart: The president has vowed to personally lead the investigation into the government's failed response to Katrina? Isn't that a job perhaps someone else should be doing?
Samantha Bee: No, not at all, Jon. To truly find out what went wrong, it's important for an investigator to have a little distance from the situation. And it's hard to get any more distant from it than the president was last week.
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"Ophelia Is A Peculiar Cyclone"
It should be hurricane now, but wind strengths are still a bit sub-par. The NOGAPS forecast keeps budging Ophelia's loop farther and farther north: landfall is now estimated to be Tuesday, in the Myrtle Beach, SC vicinity, with the storm heading almost straight north - Raleigh, NC; Virginia, New England.
A puzzle is why the storm is forecast to move so far north - presumably it's that mid-latitude trough tugging it north, that the following ridge can't counterbalance. The trough will also shear away a big part of the storm while it's completing its loop, which should be an interesting process to watch. In any event, Tampa, FL appears to be in the clear from this storm.
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It should be hurricane now, but wind strengths are still a bit sub-par. The NOGAPS forecast keeps budging Ophelia's loop farther and farther north: landfall is now estimated to be Tuesday, in the Myrtle Beach, SC vicinity, with the storm heading almost straight north - Raleigh, NC; Virginia, New England.
A puzzle is why the storm is forecast to move so far north - presumably it's that mid-latitude trough tugging it north, that the following ridge can't counterbalance. The trough will also shear away a big part of the storm while it's completing its loop, which should be an interesting process to watch. In any event, Tampa, FL appears to be in the clear from this storm.
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"My Goodness, Susy!"
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"We almost became Muslims! I want Jesus!"Jack T. Chick smacks down pesky Muslim evangelists (courtesy of the friendly folks at B3ta).
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Thursday, September 08, 2005
"Cabaret" Update
We will apparently be performing "Cabaret" at the Varsity Theatre, in downtown Davis, as has been the usual custom for DMTC shows: even the rental rate for the facility will be the usual 12% of the ticket sales.
In other news, Wells Fargo is contributing $10,000 to underwrite Young Performer's Theater (YPT) shows. Yay!
And construction on Hoblit Performing Arts Center - continues!
We will apparently be performing "Cabaret" at the Varsity Theatre, in downtown Davis, as has been the usual custom for DMTC shows: even the rental rate for the facility will be the usual 12% of the ticket sales.
In other news, Wells Fargo is contributing $10,000 to underwrite Young Performer's Theater (YPT) shows. Yay!
And construction on Hoblit Performing Arts Center - continues!
Went Late To Luna's...
So I missed Gil Rodriguez's performance, but he seemed happy. Everyone will sure miss him!
So I missed Gil Rodriguez's performance, but he seemed happy. Everyone will sure miss him!
Google Purge
Gabe, our librarian, sees this in the news:
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Gabe, our librarian, sees this in the news:
The new project, dubbed Google Purge, will join such popular services as Google Images, Google News, and Google Maps. As a part of Purge's first phase, executives will destroy all copyrighted materials that cannot be searched by Google.Gabe continues: "Thank goodness! I've always felt that I would never get all that stuff cataloged. Now Google will make it simple and easy for me. My favorite item":
As a part of Phase One operations, Google executives will permanently erase the hard drive of any computer that is not already indexed by the Google Desktop Search."At long last! Finally, life is simpler, and far easier to contain. Messy humans!"
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Superdome Video
One of the misfortunes of my having cancelled all cable television earlier this summer is that I never saw any video regarding Hurricane Katrina. Crooks and Liars has posted gripping video from Fox News of Shepard Smith and Geraldo Rivera just about losing it. Excellent television - for the history books.
Plus, paramedics describe their experiences.
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One of the misfortunes of my having cancelled all cable television earlier this summer is that I never saw any video regarding Hurricane Katrina. Crooks and Liars has posted gripping video from Fox News of Shepard Smith and Geraldo Rivera just about losing it. Excellent television - for the history books.
Plus, paramedics describe their experiences.
Link
Loop-Da-Loop
Tropical Storm Ophelia forecast for today shows a steady strengthening to hurricane status in a day or so. The storm will move NE, out over the ocean, but then stall, loop around, and likely move in on the coast, but exactly where is uncertain.
Today, the NOGAPS model shows the loop as being fairly tight, which should bring Ophelia marching directly up the Savannah River Valley, starting Wednesday morning. Still, exact movement is still shrouded in mystery, and Ophelia could still move across the Florida peninsula instead, and regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Ophelia forecast for today shows a steady strengthening to hurricane status in a day or so. The storm will move NE, out over the ocean, but then stall, loop around, and likely move in on the coast, but exactly where is uncertain.
Today, the NOGAPS model shows the loop as being fairly tight, which should bring Ophelia marching directly up the Savannah River Valley, starting Wednesday morning. Still, exact movement is still shrouded in mystery, and Ophelia could still move across the Florida peninsula instead, and regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico.
New Theater Delay
Well, it looks like DMTC is going to eat a little crow here. If I understand correctly (my information is second-hand), some electrical switching equipment will be slow to arrive, and sheet rocking can't fully proceed until the equipment is installed. In addition, not all the sheet rock is yet available - our efforts to secure sheet rock donations came up empty, and so the massive purchase order for all the sheet rock didn't go out until fairly late. According to Steve Harrison, the contractor, sheet rocking will likely not even start until the day before the opening of "Cabaret" (scheduled for Sept. 19th): even miracle-worker Steve can't sheet rock such a large space in just a day!
So, we are faced with three options - perform "Cabaret":
Patience! Our journey's end is in sight, but still just slightly out-of-reach!
Well, it looks like DMTC is going to eat a little crow here. If I understand correctly (my information is second-hand), some electrical switching equipment will be slow to arrive, and sheet rocking can't fully proceed until the equipment is installed. In addition, not all the sheet rock is yet available - our efforts to secure sheet rock donations came up empty, and so the massive purchase order for all the sheet rock didn't go out until fairly late. According to Steve Harrison, the contractor, sheet rocking will likely not even start until the day before the opening of "Cabaret" (scheduled for Sept. 19th): even miracle-worker Steve can't sheet rock such a large space in just a day!
So, we are faced with three options - perform "Cabaret":
- at the Varsity Theater;
- in the warehouse space immediately adjacent to the New Theater (within the same building);
- at the DMTC rehearsal space (the Clubhouse); or,
- at another theater (maybe not even in Davis).
Patience! Our journey's end is in sight, but still just slightly out-of-reach!
FEMA Is Broken....
....because that is exactly how the Bush Administration wanted it. It's conservative ideology in action, folks!:
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....because that is exactly how the Bush Administration wanted it. It's conservative ideology in action, folks!:
During the 1990s, FEMA was routinely praised as one of the best-functioning federal agencies. Its response to the Midwestern floods of 1993, the Northridge earthquake of 1994, and 1995's Oklahoma City terrorist attack are considered models of emergency response. By contrast, its performance during Katrina is almost universally acknowledged to have been abysmally poor. At first, FEMA's post-Katrina failure appears baffling: What happened to the once-great FEMA?
...Indeed, the White House's new response to the political disaster prompted by Katrina -- one in which officials are attempting to blame authorities in Louisiana, rather than in Washington, for the slow aid -- underscores the Bush philosophy. According to Haddow, instead of working with local officials to try to minimize the impacts of an impending storm, the White House has decided its best strategy is to keep its distance from people on the ground. That way if anything goes wrong, the White House can "attack, attack, attack."
...Haddow says that these requests should have been enough -- more than enough -- to prompt a full-scale federal response. Under the Clinton administration's FEMA, with Witt as the head, a storm of Katrina's magnitude would have prompted federal and state officials to actually meet in order to coordinate their response. "You were all working together to anticipate needs," Haddow says. "You're all sitting in the same room when the things happened -- the Midwest flood, the Northridge quake, the Oklahoma City bombing and all the disasters we responded to. We were in the same room together and nobody had to point fingers."
Close coordination with state officials was key to the Clinton administration's capacity to act quickly in the heat of a disaster, Haddow says. "We had a really solid partnership, so we received solid, timely information from the ground. Then we managed that information and turned it into a mission assignment." In other words, when people on the ground needed something, they knew who in the federal government to ask, and when the federal government had extra resources at the ready -- cops from Chicago, say, or water from Wal-Mart -- it would know where to send them. Contrast that situation to what happened after Katrina, when both Michael Chertoff, the secretary of Homeland Security, and Michael Brown, the FEMA director, admitted to several reporters that they had no idea that people were starving at the New Orleans Convention Center, even though the grim scene there had been played and replayed on television all day.
The Bush administration's distance from local disaster-relief officials is by design. From the moment Bush stepped into office, he's been determined to move away from the coordinated state/local/federal disaster-relief approach used by Clinton. Instead, as Joe Allbaugh, Bush's first FEMA dirctor, told a congressional panel in 2001, Bush wanted to pull the federal government out of the disaster-relief business and aimed to "restore the predominant role of state and local response to most disasters." The federal government became even less involved in natural disaster relief after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when FEMA's mission was shifted toward responding to terrorist attacks. In 2002, Congress created the Department of Homeland Security, and FEMA -- which Clinton had elevated to a Cabinet-level agency -- was made one department in the massive bureaucracy. As a result, although George W. Bush has a nickname for FEMA director Brown ("Brownie"), Brown enjoys far less clout under Bush than Witt enjoyed under Clinton, which Haddow says is an "incalculable loss of influence" for FEMA.
...And balance, Haddow agrees, is what's needed. "You gotta do both," he says. "You've got to fight terrorism." But you've got to respond to hurricanes and earthquakes, too. And when Bush declared a state of emergency in Louisiana on the Saturday before Katrina struck the Gulf, he made a promise to residents that he would respond, Haddow says. "People died because they couldn't get it right," he says. "People died because they didn't deliver on their promise."
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Winter Gasoline
California might temporarily relax the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limitation on gasoline, in order to help assure supplies, in view of the damage done by Katrina. They may have little choice, under the circumstances:
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California might temporarily relax the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limitation on gasoline, in order to help assure supplies, in view of the damage done by Katrina. They may have little choice, under the circumstances:
SAN FRANCISCO -- California air quality regulators want to temporarily relax gasoline pollution standards to help avert possible shortages and more price hikes stemming from the loss of petroleum imports from hurricane-battered Gulf states.
At a hearing today in Sacramento, the California Air Resources Board is scheduled to consider an emergency action reducing the standards normally in place until Oct. 31 in most parts of the state.
Essentially, the action would permit the early sale of so-called winter gasoline and waive the requirement to sell summer gasoline during the remainder of the high-ozone season.
Following Hurricane Katrina — which damaged oil rigs, refineries and other production facilities — the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would allow the nationwide distribution of gasoline with a lower evaporative standard than some states, including California, require.
Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Washington were among states that subsequently moved to relax their standards.
On Tuesday, California air board staff members recommended similar action, saying the state is faced with a potential loss of 5% to 10% of its gasoline supplies due to its reduced ability to import what's known as finished gas and blend stocks.
"The decrease in supply would be expected to have a significant adverse effect on the availability and price of gasoline in California and surrounding states," a staff report said.
The proposal calls for increasing the allowable Reid Vapor Pressure — a measure of evaporation — from about 7 pounds per square inch to 9 pounds per square inch, meaning more gasoline vapor would escape into the atmosphere.
The result, said air board spokesman Jerry Martin, would be an increase of 50 tons daily of hydrocarbon emissions statewide — a boost of about 6% or 7%.
The board's staff also calculated that the ozone level would increase by about 1%.
"Potentially, on a very hot day in the Central Valley or Southern California, with very stagnant air, it might lead to a violation of federal ozone standards," Martin said.
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005
Good Housekeeping
I suppose a broom was too much trouble:
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I suppose a broom was too much trouble:
BERLIN - A German woman laid waste to her family home by setting fire to it as she tried to kill spiders in a garage with a can of hairspray and a cigarette lighter.
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Disco Toads
Trying to rid Australia of the obnoxious, introduced (I thought they came from Argentina, not Hawaii???) cane toads:
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Trying to rid Australia of the obnoxious, introduced (I thought they came from Argentina, not Hawaii???) cane toads:
After experimenting with red and then blue lights, Australia's Frogwatch "Toad Buster" project found that the "black" light was the most effective way to attract them.
"We've found that the old toads are definitely a disco animal," Frogwatch coordinator Graham Sawyer told reporters.
He said 200 of the toads were caught in a three-week project using the disco lights at a remote station about 120 km (75 miles) south of the Northern Territory capital, Darwin.
About 1,500 toads had been trapped since January, Sawyer said.
He said it appeared that part of the attraction for the toads seemed to be the swarms of insects that the lights brought.
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Right-Wing Rants
There once was a time when it was fun to hear right-wingers rant. Then, the rants became fascistic in nature, with everyone kissing Bush's ass and beating up on the weak, and the rants lost their humor. Now, some of the fun is beginning to return....
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There once was a time when it was fun to hear right-wingers rant. Then, the rants became fascistic in nature, with everyone kissing Bush's ass and beating up on the weak, and the rants lost their humor. Now, some of the fun is beginning to return....
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Erratic
It looks like Tropical Storm Ophelia will have an erratic future. Forecasts show it moving slowly up the FL, GA, and SC coasts, before heading out eastward over open ocean on Sunday. Then on Monday, it will change its mind, reverse direction, and make landfall somewhere in the Jacksonville, FL area. It is still possible it might cross the Florida peninsula, reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico, and rake the northern Gulf Coast, including New Orleans. This storm, currently small, will bear watching.....
It looks like Tropical Storm Ophelia will have an erratic future. Forecasts show it moving slowly up the FL, GA, and SC coasts, before heading out eastward over open ocean on Sunday. Then on Monday, it will change its mind, reverse direction, and make landfall somewhere in the Jacksonville, FL area. It is still possible it might cross the Florida peninsula, reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico, and rake the northern Gulf Coast, including New Orleans. This storm, currently small, will bear watching.....
Head Upriver
Garrison Keillor, on the federal government's approach to the New Orleans disaster:
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Garrison Keillor, on the federal government's approach to the New Orleans disaster:
You don't have to be drunk to be stupid. Here was a patronage appointee, the pal of a pal, in charge of the federal response to Katrina and he sat and waited to see what would happen and when it happened, he froze. As Mr. Bush said, he had no idea that the levees wouldn't hold. Truly. It's not how we used to do things, back when there was a sense of shame attached to government incompetence that costs lives, but it's different in America these days. Don't ever get in trouble, is my advice. Head upriver and look for high ground.
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All Hands
From Steve's E-Mail:
From Steve's E-Mail:
DMTC-Help Open the Hoblit Performing Arts Center (607 Pena Drive)
Yes, that is correct, DMTC will be opening CABARET at their new theater named the Hoblit Performing Arts Center. On Friday night, September 9, 2005 at 7:00 p.m. at the Clubhouse (215 Madson Place #E) the Davis Musical Theatre Company will be working on several scrap book and photo collage projects which will be displayed in the lobby for opening night of CABARET at the Hoblit Performing Arts Center. Any and all who have an artistic eye or just a free Friday night are welcome to come and
help. There will also be some discussion concerning the other opening night festivities for CABARET. Also, if you have pictures of your own that you would like to contribute, please bring them.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Melody Davi to Perform With "42nd Street" - Closest Approach, Stockton
Got an E-Mail today from Tony Davi:
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Got an E-Mail today from Tony Davi:
I didn't have your email when I sent out the attached email regarding "42nd Street" last week. I know Melody always appreciated your encouragement and support. I don't have alot of email addresses for DMTC folks (except Steve and Jan) so if you think of anyone that might be interested, please forward or shoot me their email and I will get in touch. Check out Mel's website at http://www.melodydavi.com/This is great, but seats are bound to run out!:
Hi all,I'll need to check my schedule and see what works! If Stockton is hard to work out, maybe another city will do!
This may be redundant information for some of you and I apologize. Most of you know that Melody was cast as Peggy Sawyer in the 2005/2006 national tour of "42nd Street". Many have asked us to let them know when the tour comes to California. They open in NY in a month and the good news is they will be in California for about 2 months this time. The bad news is the closest they come to us is Stockton for one night, November 22nd.
Tickets don't officially go on sale to the general public until October 3rd as they are currently only selling to Season Ticket Subscribers. Stockton has a large Season ticket base and with the show being there only one night, the availability will be limited.
The good news is I have been in contact with the Box Office Manager and he is willing to put aside the best available for me now prior to the public sale. He said the Orchestra level is filling fast with season ticket sales so we need to act as quick as possible. The price range is $30, $40 and $50 plus $3 in fees per ticket. We will get a 10% group discount off the price of each ticket.
I realize this is short notice but I wanted to give everyone an opportunity to get in on the group rate and better seats. I need to have an idea on the number of tickets and the price range by the end of the week or sooner to secure the best seats possible.
If your interested in other locations, you can see the full schedule at http://www.melodydavi.com/.
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Moron
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WASHINGTON (AFP) - The flooded city of New Orleans will see an unparalleled building boom, US Labor Secretary Elaine Chao confidently predicted after ordering the creation of 25,000 temporary jobs for evacuees.Well, seeing that just about every building in town will have to be destroyed because their integrity has been compromised by the floodwaters, that prediction is even safer than forecasting sunrise in the east tomorrow morning.
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G
K. at Subway says I'm the eighth person to register on his consciousness today. He is finally having success relating the Mayan Calendar to his Dimensional Travelings in this Month of G - Collection, in the Month of Death. In addition, he has memorized the Chaldean numerical method, and is now working on Hebrew numbers.
I have only the fuzziest idea what he's talking about. I just hope it bears more fruit than last year's efforts to discern hidden code by scrambling the writings of Nostradamus.
K. at Subway says I'm the eighth person to register on his consciousness today. He is finally having success relating the Mayan Calendar to his Dimensional Travelings in this Month of G - Collection, in the Month of Death. In addition, he has memorized the Chaldean numerical method, and is now working on Hebrew numbers.
I have only the fuzziest idea what he's talking about. I just hope it bears more fruit than last year's efforts to discern hidden code by scrambling the writings of Nostradamus.
She's Finally Getting Comfortable With People
On a different note, even though Cloudy has been my pet rabbit since 2001, I've never seen her ever drink water - until yesterday afternoon! So cute!
On a different note, even though Cloudy has been my pet rabbit since 2001, I've never seen her ever drink water - until yesterday afternoon! So cute!
Learning Lessons
Nice timeline over at Obsidian Wings on these events leading up to the Flooding of New Orleans. As everyone moves into CYA mode, this timeline helps set us all straight.
I would like to vent about a particular problem at the very top of the chain of events, namely the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of Katrina's path. It seems to me that NHC has settled into its own CYA position as a standard operating procedure: instead of issuing the best forecast possible on a hurricane's path, NHC waits to first get consensus from its suite of computer models, some of which are better than others at forecasting hurricane movements.
Delay at issuing the forecast means delay in political circles in issuing evacuation orders. It is a grave responsibility to issue a mandatory evacuation of a major city, and it shouldn't be the least bit surprising that Mayor Nagin hesitated at doing so. I don't think that NHC's delay at sounding the alarm should be excused, however.
About a year ago, I started doing hurricane path forecasts for friends who retired to Tampa, FL. I'm an air pollution meteorologist by trade, but it was fun to be doing weather forecasting again, to keep my skills sharp. I preferred to rely on the NOGAPS model for hurricane path forecasts: it's a baroclinic model that did very well with Ivan's path, and rarely blunders like some of the others.
I quickly noticed, particularly with last year's Hurricane Ivan, that NHC's preference for computer-model consensus meant delay when the models' opinions diverged. Each model's opinion was weighed equally, but some models were big-picture models, unsuited for fine-scale detail, while others were barotropic models, which simplify information regarding temperature gradients - information that is of crucial importance in the timing of the movement of the mid-latitude systems that often steer hurricanes. Baroclinic models like NOGAPS don't make these simplifications. Getting consensus from all models usually means delay, much like getting consensus from Congress on any problem-of-the day usually means delay.
The dirty little secret is that I don't think NHC minds delay that much: they would prefer to keep everyone in a state of mild apprehension about an approaching storm rather than risk an overly-specific forecast, and therefore lull others nearby that might be affected into unwarranted complacency. Chicken Little is NHC's CYA standard-mode-of-operation. And it's easy to see why this would be the case - it's horrible to be completely taken by surprise by a hurricane, and to be stuck with the guilt of having failed to make the alarm.
With Katrina, the NOGAPS model tipped off, or SHOULD have tipped off, meteorologists that Katrina was heading towards Biloxi as early as the morning of Friday, August 26th. Model consensus wasn't reached until Friday evening, however (I blogged about the process with posts here). It can make, and here it apparently did make, a huge difference to lose a weekday's daylight hours in preparation for the storm.
NHC needs to weed its basket of models used in making hurricane path forecasts. At a minimum, the barotropic models need to go.
As I say, I very much sympathize with Mayor Nagin if he delayed in ordering a mandatory evacuation. People can die in accidents in a mandatory evacuation. But I do think he should have gotten better weather forecasts: it might have provided an extra edge and saved some lives here.
Link
Nice timeline over at Obsidian Wings on these events leading up to the Flooding of New Orleans. As everyone moves into CYA mode, this timeline helps set us all straight.
I would like to vent about a particular problem at the very top of the chain of events, namely the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of Katrina's path. It seems to me that NHC has settled into its own CYA position as a standard operating procedure: instead of issuing the best forecast possible on a hurricane's path, NHC waits to first get consensus from its suite of computer models, some of which are better than others at forecasting hurricane movements.
Delay at issuing the forecast means delay in political circles in issuing evacuation orders. It is a grave responsibility to issue a mandatory evacuation of a major city, and it shouldn't be the least bit surprising that Mayor Nagin hesitated at doing so. I don't think that NHC's delay at sounding the alarm should be excused, however.
About a year ago, I started doing hurricane path forecasts for friends who retired to Tampa, FL. I'm an air pollution meteorologist by trade, but it was fun to be doing weather forecasting again, to keep my skills sharp. I preferred to rely on the NOGAPS model for hurricane path forecasts: it's a baroclinic model that did very well with Ivan's path, and rarely blunders like some of the others.
I quickly noticed, particularly with last year's Hurricane Ivan, that NHC's preference for computer-model consensus meant delay when the models' opinions diverged. Each model's opinion was weighed equally, but some models were big-picture models, unsuited for fine-scale detail, while others were barotropic models, which simplify information regarding temperature gradients - information that is of crucial importance in the timing of the movement of the mid-latitude systems that often steer hurricanes. Baroclinic models like NOGAPS don't make these simplifications. Getting consensus from all models usually means delay, much like getting consensus from Congress on any problem-of-the day usually means delay.
The dirty little secret is that I don't think NHC minds delay that much: they would prefer to keep everyone in a state of mild apprehension about an approaching storm rather than risk an overly-specific forecast, and therefore lull others nearby that might be affected into unwarranted complacency. Chicken Little is NHC's CYA standard-mode-of-operation. And it's easy to see why this would be the case - it's horrible to be completely taken by surprise by a hurricane, and to be stuck with the guilt of having failed to make the alarm.
With Katrina, the NOGAPS model tipped off, or SHOULD have tipped off, meteorologists that Katrina was heading towards Biloxi as early as the morning of Friday, August 26th. Model consensus wasn't reached until Friday evening, however (I blogged about the process with posts here). It can make, and here it apparently did make, a huge difference to lose a weekday's daylight hours in preparation for the storm.
NHC needs to weed its basket of models used in making hurricane path forecasts. At a minimum, the barotropic models need to go.
As I say, I very much sympathize with Mayor Nagin if he delayed in ordering a mandatory evacuation. People can die in accidents in a mandatory evacuation. But I do think he should have gotten better weather forecasts: it might have provided an extra edge and saved some lives here.
Link
Tropical Storm Ophelia
And just when I thought the danger had finally passed, that area of storminess I've been warning about for days finally went ahead, took the next step and has been dubbed Tropical Storm Ophelia!
Nevertheless, Ophelia doesn't look like THAT big of a threat....it will linger, seemingly for eternity, off the NE coast of FL, and the coast of SC. The GFS model shows it intruding westward onto the east coast of FL, but then moving NE again, over open water, and towards the SC coast. Since it will be around for a long time, it might wander over and around many such places. It might occasionally set off thunderstorms in the Tampa area.
I suspect that having Tropical Storm Nate generate took away some of Ophelia's energy, which is all to the good.
And just when I thought the danger had finally passed, that area of storminess I've been warning about for days finally went ahead, took the next step and has been dubbed Tropical Storm Ophelia!
Nevertheless, Ophelia doesn't look like THAT big of a threat....it will linger, seemingly for eternity, off the NE coast of FL, and the coast of SC. The GFS model shows it intruding westward onto the east coast of FL, but then moving NE again, over open water, and towards the SC coast. Since it will be around for a long time, it might wander over and around many such places. It might occasionally set off thunderstorms in the Tampa area.
I suspect that having Tropical Storm Nate generate took away some of Ophelia's energy, which is all to the good.
August and September Links
A number of interesting stories came and went in August and early September. Here is a summary of recent stories, with links, that caught my eye.
Missing: The War Heroes: I think it's very strange that the military is downplaying wartime heroism - apparently they prefer that everyone's sacrifice be recognized, rather than focusing on any one hero. People don't think that way though - people want and need heroes. The military is doing everyone a disservice. I mean, after all, yesterday I saw a headline in the Business Section of the Sacramento Bee saying that what Wall Street needs now is more heroes. If it's good enough for Wall Street.......
People Rush to Unload Debts: The recent changes making bankruptcy more stringent are pushing people to decide to hang it all up.
Talk Radio, Talked Out: All the dissonance regarding our failure in Iraq is driving people away from talk radio - finally! - but even the liberal Air America has suffered.
Short Squeeze on Treasuries: Hedge funds can swamp the government's securities markets, creating big problems and uncontrollable price increases.
Farmers Unhappy About Forklift Air Pollution Regulations: Carl Moyer Program fund bait-and-switch isn't going down so well.
Asbestos Exposure Scientific Panel Won't Meet: Is this a case of the desire for perfection trumping doing the merely good?
The Peak?: Peter Maass' excellent article exploring whether we've already reached the maximum rate of petroleum extraction.
Fighting Islamists is Nothing Like Fighting Communists: An appropriate and useful riposte by David Rieff to the Peter Beinart idiots of the world.
Is The Bush Administration Anti-Science?: Daniel Smith suggests no, and in important respects, he may be right (It was, in part, my pessimism regarding the likely impact of the global warming doomsayers - basically, none - that led me away from climatology as a professional goal).
Slatter's Court a Historical Landmark?: Well bust my buttons! But Davis does need some color, after all!
The Amazing Manakin: A bird that plays notes - using its wings!
Satirical Song Upsets Serbs: Norwegian soldiers take a satirical remake of the Beach Boy's 'Kokomo', make a video about Kosovo, and piss off lots of folks.
Gossip Is The Key To Social Order: But we knew that already, didn't we?
The MySpace Phenomenon: I still like old-fashioned blogging, but maybe I should check it out - others are!
California Farmers Whining: About tougher border restrictions keeping their labor pool away (it figures!)
R.H. Phillips Makes The Sexual Abuse Problem Go Away: Lots of love to Natalie Wormeli for her persistence here, and hard work!
The Hydrogen Highway To Nowhere: For myself, with all the safety issues regarding hydrogen - its flammability, the absence of any color in its flame, so you could walk right into the flame before you realize you are on fire - I can't imagine why anyone would want to use it as a transportation fuel.
And finally:
Bush Tries to Quell Political Crisis Over Katrina: This ugly, wretched article by Bush asskissers Elisabeth Bumiller and Adam Nagourney tries to paper over Bush's inexcusable lack of action regarding the New Orleans disaster. Shame on The New York Times for this pompous crap!
A number of interesting stories came and went in August and early September. Here is a summary of recent stories, with links, that caught my eye.
Missing: The War Heroes: I think it's very strange that the military is downplaying wartime heroism - apparently they prefer that everyone's sacrifice be recognized, rather than focusing on any one hero. People don't think that way though - people want and need heroes. The military is doing everyone a disservice. I mean, after all, yesterday I saw a headline in the Business Section of the Sacramento Bee saying that what Wall Street needs now is more heroes. If it's good enough for Wall Street.......
People Rush to Unload Debts: The recent changes making bankruptcy more stringent are pushing people to decide to hang it all up.
Talk Radio, Talked Out: All the dissonance regarding our failure in Iraq is driving people away from talk radio - finally! - but even the liberal Air America has suffered.
Short Squeeze on Treasuries: Hedge funds can swamp the government's securities markets, creating big problems and uncontrollable price increases.
Farmers Unhappy About Forklift Air Pollution Regulations: Carl Moyer Program fund bait-and-switch isn't going down so well.
Asbestos Exposure Scientific Panel Won't Meet: Is this a case of the desire for perfection trumping doing the merely good?
The Peak?: Peter Maass' excellent article exploring whether we've already reached the maximum rate of petroleum extraction.
Fighting Islamists is Nothing Like Fighting Communists: An appropriate and useful riposte by David Rieff to the Peter Beinart idiots of the world.
Is The Bush Administration Anti-Science?: Daniel Smith suggests no, and in important respects, he may be right (It was, in part, my pessimism regarding the likely impact of the global warming doomsayers - basically, none - that led me away from climatology as a professional goal).
Slatter's Court a Historical Landmark?: Well bust my buttons! But Davis does need some color, after all!
The Amazing Manakin: A bird that plays notes - using its wings!
Satirical Song Upsets Serbs: Norwegian soldiers take a satirical remake of the Beach Boy's 'Kokomo', make a video about Kosovo, and piss off lots of folks.
Gossip Is The Key To Social Order: But we knew that already, didn't we?
The MySpace Phenomenon: I still like old-fashioned blogging, but maybe I should check it out - others are!
California Farmers Whining: About tougher border restrictions keeping their labor pool away (it figures!)
R.H. Phillips Makes The Sexual Abuse Problem Go Away: Lots of love to Natalie Wormeli for her persistence here, and hard work!
The Hydrogen Highway To Nowhere: For myself, with all the safety issues regarding hydrogen - its flammability, the absence of any color in its flame, so you could walk right into the flame before you realize you are on fire - I can't imagine why anyone would want to use it as a transportation fuel.
And finally:
Bush Tries to Quell Political Crisis Over Katrina: This ugly, wretched article by Bush asskissers Elisabeth Bumiller and Adam Nagourney tries to paper over Bush's inexcusable lack of action regarding the New Orleans disaster. Shame on The New York Times for this pompous crap!
Ladder
Unpacked the new 'Little Giant' ladder system and tried it out. Didn't succeed in fixing the outdoor light fixture under the eaves of my bedroom yet, but I did get a bit of painting done.
Unpacked the new 'Little Giant' ladder system and tried it out. Didn't succeed in fixing the outdoor light fixture under the eaves of my bedroom yet, but I did get a bit of painting done.
Gil and Sherry Moving to Florida
Sad to say for Artaud performance poetry fans, but next-door-neighbors Gil Rodriguez and his wife Sherry, leading spirits of Unheimlich, are leaving town, for New Port Richey, north of Tampa, Florida. On Thursday evening, Luna's Cafe will host a fond farewell to both Gil and Sherry: show up if you can! If you can't, please patronize their yard sale on the 2100 block of Second Avenue!
Sad to say for Artaud performance poetry fans, but next-door-neighbors Gil Rodriguez and his wife Sherry, leading spirits of Unheimlich, are leaving town, for New Port Richey, north of Tampa, Florida. On Thursday evening, Luna's Cafe will host a fond farewell to both Gil and Sherry: show up if you can! If you can't, please patronize their yard sale on the 2100 block of Second Avenue!
Good News
The news looks good on the tropical storm front. Right now, it looks like Mother Nature will resolve all the potential dangers in the best possible way for Florida and South Carolina. Tropical Storm Nate has been generated at the NE end of the area where storm development was likely, far offshore, and that storm will almost certainly head NE. Smaller areas in the Bahamas and the NE Gulf of Mexico will develop convection and thunderstorms, and probably not escalate towards tropical storm activity.
The news looks good on the tropical storm front. Right now, it looks like Mother Nature will resolve all the potential dangers in the best possible way for Florida and South Carolina. Tropical Storm Nate has been generated at the NE end of the area where storm development was likely, far offshore, and that storm will almost certainly head NE. Smaller areas in the Bahamas and the NE Gulf of Mexico will develop convection and thunderstorms, and probably not escalate towards tropical storm activity.
Sunday, September 04, 2005
Nascent
From Central Florida Hurricane Center blog:
Link
From Central Florida Hurricane Center blog:
Good morning all. Looks like some broad cyclonic turning starting to develop off the SE coast of FL. All of the global models have indicated over the last several days a closed low developing from the old surface trough that migrated southward and now stalled over south FL. 00Z CMC takes the low across the south half of the peninsula, into the GOM to NO. 00Z NOGAPS & UKMET move it slowly up the easy coast of FL and deepen it. 06Z GFS runs it up the middle of the state and then NE. From NWS Tampa Bay 2 AM Disc:
MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A MORE DEVELOPED LOW ONTO THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT PAINFULLY SLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH AND LOWER POPS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE REVERSE. PRE-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AS MENTIONED IN TPC'S LATE EVENING TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE LOW CENTER IN QUESTION FOR MID-WEEK IS ACTUALLY A NEW ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE INITIAL LOW LIFTS OUT. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS LOW BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE SLOW MOVEMENT IF AND WHEN THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP.
Link
New Theater Update
As far as I know, we are still on schedule for a Sept. 16th opening. The electrical panels are said to all be in, and work is proceeding on the ventilation system. We are supposed to be working on the stage (meaning building the stage, not rehearsing on it) this coming weekend. I don't know about the sheet rock situation, though, but presumably there is progress there as well.....
As far as I know, we are still on schedule for a Sept. 16th opening. The electrical panels are said to all be in, and work is proceeding on the ventilation system. We are supposed to be working on the stage (meaning building the stage, not rehearsing on it) this coming weekend. I don't know about the sheet rock situation, though, but presumably there is progress there as well.....
Cache Creek
Devastating evening up there: didn't sleep yet, lost $2,000, almost got it back, then lost it again. Ugh! Thank goodness I'm still slightly ahead after the huge win there last week!
At 3:30 a.m., I developed a sudden hunger for ice cream, so there I was, idling interminably (one thing you learn to do in a casino is you learn to master your impatience, and wait, wait, wait). I waited for the overwhelmed and overworked staff to handle the fussy mob in front of me. Despite the hour, the casino was still packed, mostly with Cambodians and Filipinos and Thais - you'd hardly know we were in rural California! Everyone had specialized orders for cappucino and other assorted specialties - I couldn't even get chocolate ice cream, and had to settle for coffee ice cream.
Skipping a night's sleep is always an adventure, nearly falling asleep at the wheel on the drive home, problems with memorization (which affected musical theater rehearsal and Sunday ballet class) , and sudden naps. And when sleep the following evening finally came, REM sleep attacked with a vengeance! I dreamt I was sitting at work, and was hit with a snowball from nowhere. Investigating, I discovered a vast white void in the workplace, a huge cavern of a tank, with delicate lacy snow lining the bottom. I finally found the ice cream!
Devastating evening up there: didn't sleep yet, lost $2,000, almost got it back, then lost it again. Ugh! Thank goodness I'm still slightly ahead after the huge win there last week!
At 3:30 a.m., I developed a sudden hunger for ice cream, so there I was, idling interminably (one thing you learn to do in a casino is you learn to master your impatience, and wait, wait, wait). I waited for the overwhelmed and overworked staff to handle the fussy mob in front of me. Despite the hour, the casino was still packed, mostly with Cambodians and Filipinos and Thais - you'd hardly know we were in rural California! Everyone had specialized orders for cappucino and other assorted specialties - I couldn't even get chocolate ice cream, and had to settle for coffee ice cream.
Skipping a night's sleep is always an adventure, nearly falling asleep at the wheel on the drive home, problems with memorization (which affected musical theater rehearsal and Sunday ballet class) , and sudden naps. And when sleep the following evening finally came, REM sleep attacked with a vengeance! I dreamt I was sitting at work, and was hit with a snowball from nowhere. Investigating, I discovered a vast white void in the workplace, a huge cavern of a tank, with delicate lacy snow lining the bottom. I finally found the ice cream!
Jennifer Makes The Paper!Jennifer Lin, associate director of development and marketing for the Sacramento Opera, and who is Pam's Sunday ballet class:
Q: What do you think keeps some people from attending an opera?
A: It seems very foreign. We have people call in and say, "Do I have to wear a tuxedo to the event?" Or "I don't speak Italian, am I going to be able to understand the opera?" You can say, "Oh, there's supertitles in English. You can follow along with the story." "Dress is not incredibly formal. You can come in business casual." There's a lot of outreach we need to be doing for bridging the gap for people who are completely new to the art form.
Link
