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Saturday, April 08, 2023

A Glorious Rainy Season is Wrapping Up!


It's almost a wrap on the 2022-23 California rainy season! April is the month when storm systems weaken dramatically, and that process is underway now. 

Rainy seasons have been so erratic this last decade! Contrary to historically-dry expectations related to La Niña, we did quite well this season, waterwise. We're about 140% of normal here in Sacramento - the best season since 2016-17, just six years ago. Life in California is so much easier when everyone has the water they need. (I think it's a mistake to rely alone on La Niña- El Niño for rainy season predictions, since California is some distance from that cycle's equatorial home.) 

The big question now is how quickly that unstable ice cap in the Sierras will melt. Almost every day since the middle of February has had temperatures below average, which is great for preserving the snowpack, but that remarkably-cold run is ending now. 

And so, how abrupt will the warm up be? Not as abrupt as in April, 1997, when a warm Atmospheric River arrived and decimated the snowpack, leading to flooding. There are no such storm systems on today's horizon. Still, I'm thinking the next week will warm quite a bit, and the snowmelt will seriously start. Beware swimming holes and similar fun places this year. Waters will run cold, deep, and fast!

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