The latest forecasts are barely budging at all. The National Hurricane Center consensus indicates a direct hit on Tampa, but the NVG model keeps the eye just offshore. Still, according to the NVG model, the eye will pass close enough to Tampa that the eyewall is likely to rake the shoreline as it passes by. Storm surge will be a big problem - 5 to 10 feet: plus rain - 10 to 15 inches - and the wind, of course. There are also forecasts that the forward speed of the storm will slow as it passes by, prolonging the misery. The storm will be weakening as it passes by, but sometimes a weakening storm expands in size, which can defeat the effect of weakening.
Rains have started in Ft. Myers. You'll start seeing rainbands shortly.
As you indicated, I hope you are able to offer people from the shoreline shelter and have enough supplies to last for at least several days. The big problems, of course, will be electrical power and drinking water.
My prayers are with you. Although this is memorable, it can't be much fun.
Marc
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