Early Onset of the 2022 Southwestern Monsoon

There are strong indications of an early onset of the southwestern monsoon this year. It doesn't necessarily mean a good monsoon, since the flow of tropical moisture north can stutter on and off in a disappointing way during the summer. Still, an early onset is good, since it gives more opportunities for rain, which makes a good monsoon more likely. 

Rains are forecast in the southwest starting Friday, June 17th. The commonly-accepted threshold for monsoonal weather in Tucson is a dew point of 54 degrees Fahrenheit, and higher. Currently, dew point is 34 degrees. That dew point needs to bump up! 

Courtesy of the folks at U of A in Tucson, here is an interesting summary of last monsoon's rainfall in New Mexico. There was a broad arc of heavier-than-expected rain from El Paso to Socorro to Gallup. Ominously, rainfall was deficient in the mountains east of Santa Fe - exactly where this year's fires have caused so much devastation.