When It Comes To Anti-Missile Defense, People Never Learn

Physicist Freeman Dyson, in his 1984 book "Weapons and Hope", described the many, many solid, serious reasons why Anti-Missile Defense could never, ever work. And still, even with the world's worst management, no one learns a ding-danged thing:

The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, or GMD, was supposed to protect Americans against a chilling new threat from "rogue states" such as North Korea and Iran. But a decade after it was declared operational, and after $40 billion in spending, the missile shield cannot be relied on, even in carefully scripted tests that are much less challenging than an actual attack would be, a Los Angeles Times investigation has found.

...Despite years of tinkering and vows to fix technical shortcomings, the system's performance has gotten worse, not better, since testing began in 1999. Of the eight tests held since GMD became operational in 2004, five have been failures. The last successful intercept was on Dec. 5, 2008. Another test is planned at Vandenberg, on the Santa Barbara County coast, later this month.

The GMD system was rushed into the field after President George W. Bush, in 2002, ordered a crash effort to deploy "an initial set of missile defense capabilities." The hurried deployment has compromised its effectiveness in myriad ways.

"The system is not reliable," said a recently retired senior military official who served under Presidents Obama and Bush. "We took a system that was still in development — it was a prototype — and it was declared to be 'operational' for political reasons.

...But given GMD's record in flight tests, four or five interceptors probably would have to be launched to take out a single enemy warhead, according to current and former government officials familiar with the Missile Defense Agency's projections.

The system's 30 interceptors — four at Vandenberg and 26 at Ft. Greely — could be overwhelmed by an attack with multiple missiles.

The threat would be even greater if enemy missiles were outfitted with decoys or shed metal debris, which could confuse GMD's radar and sensors.

Despite GMD's problems, influential members of Congress have protected its funding and are pushing to add silos and interceptors in the Eastern U.S. at a potential cost of billions of dollars.

...Intercepting a ballistic missile is a supreme technical challenge. Scientists liken it to hitting one speeding bullet with another.

...Then-Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld exempted the Missile Defense Agency from standard procurement rules and testing standards, freeing it to use research and development money to buy and deploy a system quickly.

The rocket interceptors were essentially prototypes rather than finished products when put in the field. The first model of kill vehicle was not flight-tested against a mock warhead until September 2006 — two years after the vehicles had been placed in the silos.

...One senior official involved in the system described his frustration at learning that some computers aboard the kill vehicles lacked the processing power of common cellphones.

...Philip E. Coyle III, who oversaw several early test flights as the Pentagon's director of operational testing and evaluation from 1994 to 2001, said that even the system's eight successful interceptions should be viewed skeptically because of the staged conditions.

"The tests are scripted for success," said Coyle, who has also served as a science advisor in the Obama White House. "What's amazing to me is that they still fail."

...The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty entrenched this doctrine by prohibiting either side from fielding systems to intercept intercontinental missiles. The idea was that the prospect of mutual annihilation had proved effective and missile defense would undermine it; if either side thought it could block a retaliatory response, the temptation to attack would be greater.

After taking office in 2001, Bush withdrew from the treaty, which he said was outmoded and prevented the U.S. from protecting itself against new threats from the world's "least responsible states," notably North Korea.

...On Dec. 16, 2002, Bush signed a presidential directive requiring "deployment of a set of missile defense capabilities in 2004."

The week before, two flight tests of the fledgling system had failed. At that point, its performance record stood at five successful intercepts in nine attempts. Bush's directive called the results "impressive."

Instead of delaying deployment until the system had been rigorously tested, the Missile Defense Agency, beginning in 2004, placed interceptors in silos at Vandenberg and Ft. Greely and declared the system operational.

Rumsfeld and his aides said it made more sense to improve the system over time rather than to try to field a finished version at the start.

"The way this program is evolving, every one of the new missiles will be better than the one that previously was produced," Michael W. Wynne, acting undersecretary for acquisition, technology and logistics, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 11, 2004. "Each one of the missiles will add to the reliability of the system."

Appearing before a Senate subcommittee a month later, the Missile Defense Agency's director, Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald T. Kadish, acknowledged some "technical challenges" but said: "Things are going all in the right direction."

Signs of trouble soon emerged.