Utter Lack Of Republican Enthusiasm For Their Leaders Opens The Door To Wendell-Willkie-Type Candidate

The Republican leadership roster is particularly-threadbare at the moment, and likely to deteriorate in the future. That causes activists to recoil in disinterest:

For three days last week, 1,500 delegates to the Republican Leadership Conference sized up the prospects. Most came away unexcited. A straw poll was largely inconclusive. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas inched out physician Ben Carson, with Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky a distant third.

Only 35 percent of delegates voted, and many of the big 2016 names— Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas— did not appear here.

...People know intellectually what they want: Someone firmly committed to conservative principles on economics and limited government.

Most also want a winner, someone who can attract swing voters not bound to any firm ideology. The highlight of one session was former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour, who offered sobering advice. Be tolerant and be willing to compromise.

"Purity is the enemy of victory," he said.

Passion, though, drives politics as much as strategy, and other experts here stressed stirring the grass-roots masses with a "get-government-off-our-backs" message as the way to win. Rail against the Affordable Care Act, allow responsible people to own guns and cut back on government regulations and taxes, they urged.

This sort of leadership chaos opens the door to a less-traditional candidate than the conservative others: someone like Wendell Willkie in 1940:

The 1940 presidential campaign was conducted against the backdrop of World War II. Although the United States was still neutral, the nation - and especially the Republican Party - was deeply divided between isolationists, who felt the nation should avoid any steps that could lead America into the war, and interventionists, who felt that America's survival depended upon helping the Allies defeat Nazi Germany. The three leading candidates for the 1940 Republican nomination were all isolationists to varying degrees: Senators Robert Taft of Ohio, Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan, and Thomas E. Dewey, the "gangbusting" District Attorney from New York. These three men had campaigned vigorously, but only 300 of the 1,000 convention delegates were pledged to a candidate before the convention. This left an opening for a dark horse candidate to emerge.

Willkie seemed an unlikely candidate as he was a former Democrat and Wall Street industrialist who had never before run for public office. ... A May 8 Gallup poll showed Dewey at 67% support among Republicans, followed by Vandenberg and Taft, with Willkie at a mere 3%.

...While Taft stressed that America needed to prevent the New Deal from using the international crisis to extend socialism and dictatorship at home, the German blitzkrieg that quickly defeated France shook public opinion. ... Willkie stumped the country, seeking the support of liberal and East Coast Republicans worried by German victories.

...With the surrender of France to Germany on June 25, 1940, and the belief that Britain was under imminent threat of a Nazi invasion, the convention opened in an atmosphere of great excitement and national stress; this is believed to have boosted Willkie's chances even further.

...Dewey led the first ballot, but was far short of a majority; Taft was second, and Willkie was a surprisingly strong third. On the second and third ballots Dewey's support dwindled, as his delegates went to either Taft or Willkie, with most favoring Willkie. ... On the fourth ballot Willkie surged into first place, with Taft close behind; other candidates began to drop out in favor of the two frontrunners. ... Finally, on the sixth ballot, Willkie received a majority of the ballots cast and won the nomination.

...Willkie centered his presidential campaign around three major themes: the alleged inefficiency and corruption of Roosevelt's New Deal programs; Roosevelt's attempt to win an unprecedented third term as President; and the government's alleged lack of military preparedness. Willkie claimed that he would keep most of FDR's New Deal welfare and regulatory programs, but that he would make them more efficient and effective, and that he would work more closely with business leaders to end the Great Depression.

...After the election, Willkie became a fervent internationalist and an unlikely ally of Roosevelt.

...Willkie spoke often of the need to uplift blacks and addressed a convention of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) in 1942, one of the most prominent politicians to do so up to that time.

...In the 1944 presidential election, Willkie again sought the Republican nomination.... However, his progressive and internationalist views gained little support because of the rightward shift of the party and Republican rank-and-file resentment over Willkie's close collaboration with Roosevelt.

Who might be in the position of being a non-traditional Republican candidate in 2016?

I think it makes little sense for Neel Kashkari to run for Governor of California in 2014, but maybe it makes sense for him to run as President of the United States. He would have Wall Street in his pocket, as a starter.

There are plenty of others who might make good candidates, but their backgrounds are likely atypical and they won't be household names.