Trying To Anticipate What People Want

I remember manning DMTC booths at Davis Community Park in 2005, and 2009, and now, once again, in 2012. I didn't expect too many surprises. In fact, I tried to predict what we might expect in the way of cookie sales.

DMTC obtained $476.45 from Celebrate Davis in 2005. That’s nearly 500 cookies, but there was additional demand too, because we had the most bargain-conscious food item around. I remember how a small child complained that she wanted pizza instead of cookies, but her father explained to her that she was going to eat cookies, or nothing at all. It was the power of the market! Celebrate Davis was an efficient market!

If turnout in 2005 matched what the promoters expected from 2004 attendance (5,000 people), and if we sold nearly 500 cookies, we might expect to sell one cookie for every ten people who attend. If turnout was larger this year, it would mean more cookies sold. I thought 600 cookies should cover 2012's needs.

The 2009 example wasn't very instructive, because that year we won the lottery to sell both pizza and beer, so we were set up for big sales, no matter what happened.

In fact, this year, turnout appeared to be lower than in either Celebrate Davis in 2005, or Fourth of July in 2009. I'm not sure why.

The City of Davis provided free water, but did so at a location away from the food vendors. In theory, that should have spurred soda sales. In practice, it appeared to have irritated people. People purchased little in the way of sodas.

People nibbled away the cookies, but their real interest was in the popcorn. We provided popcorn almost as an afterthought, and had only a small cooker to work with, but people were willing to wait patiently in long lines just to get a taste of the maize goodness. We started wondering if there was crack in the corn, so inordinate the demand seemed.

When you read histories of the Great Depression, people talk about how that economic trial made for a more-sober, family-conscious people. I've noticed that the Great Recession of 2008 has had similar effects. We are now a better well-grounded people than we were in 2007.

What I did not expect, however, was the insatiable appetite for popcorn. There's just no way to keep up!