Folks In Cancun Want To Know About Paula

An appeal from the tropics is relayed to me:

I'm in Cancun with a large group I booked & many were flying in tomorrow. Can you ask your friend the truth about Paula & what she is going to do to the Cancun area.
Help!
Valerie

It looks as if there is slightly contradictory information on Paula. I am most comfortable with the satellite picture guidance, which shows the storm heading almost directly towards Cancun. I tend to discount model guidance (not enough weather information is available to them in the Caribbean at this small scale to make them totally reliable guides).

My guess is that the eye of Paula will pass just east of Cancun very early on Thursday morning. It will be almost a direct hit, so considerable caution is required. Winds will likely be in the 50/60 mph range, and there will be heavy rain. For a tourist, Thursday will be a lost day. One favorable element is that the storm is fairly small by tropical storm standards, so a direct hit is required for maximum damage.

Here is what I glean from the Internet:
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(I’m using this link for reference – ignore any security certificate warning)

The COAMPS regional model suggests that Paula will make a direct hit on Cozumel while travelling northwest, and plunging into the Yucatan Peninsula. So, they will see the 85 knot winds, high surf, and all the rest.

At Cancun, winds will pick up starting about midnight, Thursday morning, and there will be heavy rain all Thursday morning long. Nevertheless, winds should be less there than at Cozumel. Still, at 40 knots, they will be significant. So, Wednesday morning will be a bad day to be a tourist in Cancun. Windy and rainy. Not devastating, though.

In contrast, the NOGAPS model shows Paula remaining offshore, with the storm already having made closest approach by Wednesday midnight. So, the models disagree with each other right now.

Current satellite pictures suggest a direct hit on both Cozumel and Cancun as the storm travels from south to north. So Cancun may get the worst of what is actually a pretty small storm.

National Hurricane Center suggests the storm will be beginning to weaken when it passes Cancun, so winds will be around 80 mph, tops, with 50 knots more likely in Cancun.

Weather Underground says the following:

at 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Paula was located
near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 86.0 west. Paula is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...but a turn to the
north is expected tonight and Wednesday. On this track the core of
Paula should reach the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday and be over
western Cuba Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Paula is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight
and Wednesday...but a gradual weakening should begin thereafter.
Paula is a small hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 15 miles...30 km...from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb...28.97 inches.