Whither Matthew?

I'm a little worried about where Matthew will end up going. Model forecasts diverge at Days 4 & 5:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME AND THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS AND A DECELERATION OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIOS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN...AND IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS.