PA Race Exciting

Go Sestak!:

As the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary heads into the home stretch -- and with the challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, catching up in the polls with the incumbent, former Republican Arlen Specter -- can the party establishment deliver for Specter despite lingering voter distrust with his party-switch, in light of the help he has given to pass crucial Democratic bills in Congress?

..."On another level, what will the party and union endorsements mean?" Madonna asked. "He has the entire infrastructure of the party at the top level in his camp. He's got the party and the unions. Will they deliver? At the voter level, at the grassroots level, is where I'm not convinced he can move them."

...The latest polls sure have the race all tied up. Quinnipiac has Specter ahead 44%-42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Franklin & Marshall has Sestak up by 38%-36%, with a ±4.9% margin of error. And the Muhlenberg daily tracking poll has it tied at 45%-45%, with a ±5% margin of error, after Sestak had previously been ahead for the last few days. The TPM Poll Average gives Specter a very narrow lead of 43.6%-40.9%, with Sestak clearly rising up in the last few weeks.

So where will Specter find his votes?

"He [Specter] will win African-Americans. The question is how many in the city of Philly will vote," said Madonna. "The city of Philly is key because it's the largest Democratic municipality. You've got the Democratic organization, they're supporting him -- Mayor Nutter, the chairman of the [Philadelphia Democratic] party, Congressman Brady."

In addition, Madonna said that Specter could do well with relatively conservative Democratic voters in the rest of the state: "There are a larger number of them who are undecided than liberals or moderates, and he's doing better with them than Congressman Sestak."

Specter's lingering problem, Madonna said, is that a number of voters still don't trust him as a Democrat. Madonna said that "by far the most effective" TV ad so far was Sestak's ad that replayed video of Specter's past support of George W. Bush, Rick Santorum and Sarah Palin. "I think it's just extraordinarily effective," said Madonna. "And Specter's countering it with a pretty effective commercial with the president [Obama]. That's a very very good commercial, obviously trying to counter the stuff that he's not a real Democrat."