Polling In The Middle - For Now

Polls right now reveal little. It's February, after all. Things can change, and by a lot, by election time. Polls won't really mean much until August, and maybe not even then. It's also important to remember that Congressional elections are district-specific, and do not necessarily reflect national trends:

According to a Gallup poll this week, Republicans and Democrats each get 45% in the so-called generic ballot, designed to measure registered voters' support for the major parties.

A tie is bad news for Democrats, who control Congress and the White House. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans across the country, in part because of how the parties see themselves. Historically, Democrats have been the mass party and the GOP has generally been the minority party, based in different parts of the nation.

Despite the enrollment edge, Republicans remain very competitive in this midterm election year because of their appeal to independents who say they support the GOP candidates by 47% to 31%.

Still, 22% of independents say they are unsure or plan to vote for neither party -- a symptom of the unrest and volatility among voters this year. Groups such as the "tea party" movement are hoping to capitalize on that anti-incumbent discontent, especially in states like Florida.

Also disconcerting for Democrats is that the Gallup results are a mirror image of the voters’ mood from 1994 through 2005, the period when the GOP won control of the House of Representatives.

“As of now, Republicans are positioned to do well in the November congressional elections,” the report says. “Not only are registered voters evenly split in their preferences for Republican and Democratic candidates -- an indication that Republicans would lead Democrats among likely voters if the elections were held today -- but Republican voters are far more enthusiastic about voting this year than are Democrats.”