With Shoppers Like Me....

Who needs a recession? People like me will be the death of the economy yet. I know I've already bought most of my loot for the year and will spend very little at the stores this holiday season:

US retailers are taking desperate measures to spark holiday sales in the face of what promises to be another troubled year-end shopping season.

Merchants are furiously working to ramp up consumer interest ahead of "Black Friday," on November 27, the day after the Thanksgiving Day holiday that marks the traditional kickoff of the holiday gift season.

Some are promising price cuts of 50 percent or more on some hot electronics, and planning for big events to bring out shoppers for big sales promotions.

Analysts say retailers are struggling to find the right balance of inventories and discounts while cautious consumers are hesitating about how much and when to buy.

Clothing retailer Gap has started early with 25 percent discounts, while Wal-Mart and Target are offering online shoppers free or discounted shipping on many items. JC Penney is boosting Black Friday promotions and will open its doors at 4 am for the best deals.

Steven Dennis, executive-in-residence at Southern Methodist University's JC Penney Center for Retail Excellence, said price cuts may be deep but are not as broad as some might expect.

"I think most retailers are desperate for market share," he said. "Everyone seems to have the view that business is gong to be flat and it is a battle for market share."

But Dennis said retailers are not in the dire position of last year, when they had large amounts of inventory. So price cuts will mainly be on a few high-profile items to get consumers into the store "and hope they get a disproportionate share of their spending."

...Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, said she sees overall holiday retail sales growing 1.6 percent from last year, but that this will essentially be flat when adjusted for inflation.

"The quality of spending this holiday season will still be dismal, however, when compared to Christmases past," she said.

..."In an effort to reduce discounting, retailers have cut inventories to well below year-ago levels and are expected to keep them low through the holiday season. If merchants have underestimated demand, they could end up with bare shelves, losing sales."

...A survey by Visa USA found consumers plan on spending 161 dollars less on holiday shopping than last year and 368 dollars less than they planned two years ago.

In one sign of the times, several retailers have brought back the layaway plan, which enables customers to put down a deposit to hold merchandise until the full amount can be paid. Sears, Kmart and Toys R US are among those offering the plan, and a new online version of the program is offered through eLayaway.com.

One reason for this is that consumers are stretched and may have less access to credit.