Fay

So, 92L now has a name!

Forecasts are changing. Currently the NOGAPS model brings "Tropical Storm Fay" just west of Tampa by Tuesday evening, with landfall in the Mobile, AL/Biloxi, MS area by Thursday morning. The GFS model brings Fay directly over Tampa by Tuesday noon, raking the entire west coast of Florida.

I'm still skeptical that, with a trough over the East Coast, Fay will go as far west as the Gulf of Mexico, but it certainly can't be ruled out. Much depends on how far south the storm's path is (south is bad for Tampa). Currently Fay is scraping the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.