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Thursday, November 01, 2007

Noel's Short Window Of Opportunity

Before she makes the extratropical transition:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NOEL...SIGNALING THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL TO BECOME A CANE. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOEL WILL BECOME AN EXTREMELY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE.

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