Tropical Storm Noel Finally Materializes

And will affect southeastern Florida:

THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.

THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.