John's Not Heavy, He's My Brother

Left: Deborah prepares to keep a wary eye on Hurricane John.





Doug asks for clarification regarding Hurricane John:

Wow, that's "heavy"! Heavy as in "something more than the usual"? Or, heavy as in "this could be life-threatening if you are outdoors"?

So far, it looks like several days of more thunderstorms than usual - like the normal Arizona monsoon, just more of it, and more widespread.

But never trust a disintegrating hurricane, I say. The way in which a hurricane disintegrates can sometimes be very important (remembering the classic disintegration of Hurricane Octave in 1983, and the flooding that followed). We'll just have to keep an eye on it.

Also, that warm-water corridor along the coast is quite narrow, and it will be hard for Mother Nature to maneuver that lumbering hurricane along it. Like a sumo wrestler on a balance beam. So, the forecast is subject to change, and things need not be as dramatic as they look now.

But right now, late next week looks wet.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center polls its models:

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 335/7. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO. THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING THAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. THE MINORITY SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT.