Like A Javelin

New, NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) forecasts bring Hurricane Rita's path a bit northwards (with passing showers around Tampa), ultimately hurling the storm like a javelin into the Gulf Coast around Brownsville, TX, and penetrating deep inland, up the Rio Grande Valley.

The National Hurricane Center seems to think the storm will come in even farther north, on the Texas coast. The 'spaghetti model' guidance puts the NOGAPS (NGPI) predictions on the southern envelope of all the other models. The key seems to be what will happen with the trough developing over the western U.S. The NOGAPS model shows the trough as stalling and digging over the west coast, even cutting off from the westerlies, and thus will move inland very, very slowly, which means Rita won't feel its effects until quite late, and thus Rita won't turn north until late. Presumably the other models bring the western U.S. trough further inland more quickly, which means the path turns north much sooner, thus bringing Rita into the Texas, not the Mexican, coast (my instinct is to go with the NOGAPS model on this, so watch out Brownsville!)

But whatever the quibbling regarding hurricane path, there is agreement on one thing:

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.