92L

I'm fretting about the possibility of a near-Florida storm, but the GFS model is showing the real threat might be a powerful storm barreling out of the tropical Atlantic (currently named 92L). Here is a summary regarding both possibilities from the Central Florida Hurricane Center 2005 blog:

Next up. 92L. You may have heard me or many others say that when the models come into agreement on a storm developing, it usually does. The last time the models were in agreement like this, we had invest 97L developing off of the coast of Africa -- obviously, that one never panned out, as it came off too far to the north and in too much of a shearing environment to become organized enough to be classified. However, this one is much further south, in a more favorable upper-level flow & mid-level airmass regime (particularly in the long-term), and already has some organization to it. The mid-level organization of the storm is more impressive than is the low-level organization at this point, but it appears as though a low-level circulation is getting organized somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-10N and 34-36W. The pattern suggests this one will have a better chance of getting further west than the two ahead of it -- and moreso than most storms already this season -- and has a lot of model support. The GFS has been developing this one and taking it near or north of the Greater Antilles as a less than 980mb system (pretty good for that model), while the GFDL brings a near-category 5 hurricane to the northern islands in 5 days. The other major global models generally agree on bringing a substantial feature (at least a TS) to the northern islands in the 5-6 day time span. Given the way the pattern is unfolding, the low latitude of the disturbance, and its current organization, this one has a chance. Expect a tropical depression -- #15 -- out of this one at any point with development into a named system shortly thereafter. It likely won't go as far south as did Ivan last year and Emily this year, but likely will still be one to deal with for the next week to ten days.

There is some support in some of the global & mesoscale models for lowering pressures in the Gulf of Mexico/Bahamas region over the next few days into early next week. A current overview of the region shows a strong ridge building in along the eastern seaboard into the Gulf, a sharp but narrow trough just southeast of there extending from the upper-low east of Bermuda (near Lee) west-southwest into the NW Caribbean, and relatively weak winds with signs of an upper-level ridge forming between that upper-low and the one affecting TD 14 at this point. As the southern end of the trough associated with a frontal boundary and Katrina's remnants slides into the Gulf, it will have a favorable upper-level pattern and marginal to slightly-favorable -- due to Katrina's wake -- SSTs for development. A lot of dry air is projected to be in the region and it is questionable as to whether the development will be tropical or not, but nevertheless it is something to watch. Anything that forms east of Florida will likely ride the coast; anything west of there would likely head west towards the western Gulf -- all assuming the entity that forms would be tropical -- but it's really too early to even speculate on that.