Dennis Inches Westwards

Dennis looks like it's inching westwards. The National Hurricane Center discussion sounds confused. The NOGAPS and ETA models are looking at landfall in the Gulfport, Mississippi area: still, the GFS model thinks the Alabama coast will receive landfall.

You may have already seen the most intense rain you are likely to get in Tampa, FL, but there are many more hours of steady rain ahead. And the heaviest winds so far look like they were 21 mph or so, with gusts to 30 mph.

So, it's another rainy night in Tampa. It could have been so much worse, of course. New Orleans and vicinity tomorrow night will not be a happy place.

Here is the confused portion of that NHC discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.