Tropical Storm Fernand

The Atlantic storminess has gelled into Tropical Storm Fernand, a weak echo of Hurricane Erin. No threat to Florida. 

Things look pretty calm until about Labor Day, September 1st and 2nd. There are suggestions of storminess in the Gulf of Mexico around that time - perhaps the formation of a tropical storm near Tampa, or the development of a tropical storm off the Louisiana coast, but it's still too early to say anything definitively about any of that.

Last Anticipated Tesla Protest

Today was the last anticipated protest at the Tesla dealership. Tesla salience has been dropping for awhile. I wanted to wait until Musk and his associates were forced off the Tesla Board, but we don't know when that will be. Protesters will be moving off to other projects, like banner drops. Since Palestinian salience is on the upswing, protesters will likely go there. 

My favorite moment of today's Tesla protest was when the passenger in a passing Cybertruck rolled down her window, put together her hands, and made a little heart for us. 

The "No Ice" protest at Howe and Arden continues, and seems to be getting bigger. Lots of fun over there! 

I was a bit of a badass today. We've noticed the same dark-tinted-window security vehicle repeatedly passing by us for the last several weekends. This afternoon, as the security official in his vehicle waited for the light to change, I went into the street and took photos of it, then opened the driver's side door. "Don't open the door," the security official said. "Why not?" I challenged. The security official began reaching over to retrieve his weapon. I closed the door. Later, a brief discussion was held between the security official and our people where it was promised that I wouldn't do that again. Which is good. Security officials should be in contact with the people they routinely surveil. 

Here's some video from today's Howe and Arden protest.

 

Back-To-School

The last two weeks for me have been back-to-school as a substitute teaching assistant with Montessori, at their Capitol and Carmichael campuses. So far, I've interacted only with 4th through 6th graders. I hope at some point to hang out with the kindergartners again, the most fun of kids. 

I arrived early at the Capitol campus and was surprised by the number of geese out on the playground. Even later, when they had a fire drill, there were still some geese remaining. "I'm going out to wait with the dinosaurs," I heard one boy tell a friend. 

I was pleased when the teacher announced to her class that I would be substitute TA for the day. I could hear a ripple of approval pass through the class. I had interacted with some of these students before, and they thought I was a good egg. 

At the end of the day, waiting in car line, a boy came up to me and said, "Let's dab!" I understood dabbing as a dance move, but he understood it as a ritual handshake, something I wasn't particularly good at in the Seventies, the decade of ritual handshakes. When he succeeded with me he announced to everyone, "I dabbed with an old man!" 

Montessori attracts parents with kids that have special needs. I was curious about one in particular, Anxiety Girl, hiding under her desk and shrinking into her hoodie. She avoided people and they avoided her too. At lunchtime she sat near, but apart from, her class. I hope the best for her - it's hard to be so anxious at such a young age. 

The Carmichael campus is larger than the Capitol campus and has different customs and ways. It was my first sojourn working there. I was baffled by the playground, which is partly under reconstruction. I entered the playground in confusion and wonderment and a girl leaped out in front of and said, "You're new! Let me show you around!" That was observant and nice of her. 

I found myself helping acclimate a new student to the school. The New Kid had been homeschooled in previous years and so this was his first day of school - EVER! I think it was stressful - as bad as his worst fears, he said. Still, I could sense determination. He rolled around on the floor and pitched his voice to a high squeak, which was charmingly nerdy and totally inappropriate for classroom silence. Not surprisingly, he got in trouble at lunch, when he got on top of the metal picnic table outside the classroom. A no-nonsense PE teacher dressed him down. It was a baffling experience. "I KNOW how to fall," he said, and illustrated by falling in a controlled way onto the concrete floor. I explained, "It's like the PE teacher was saying, you could fall onto other people. You could be okay but they could get hurt." So, he had to suffer for other people's incompetence. 

Science in the afternoon covered the subject of caves, and the life forms therein. I told one of my stock stories about going into a New Mexico cave, and finding a pool of water with white balls lying at the bottom of the pool. When we touched the balls the white surface of the balls popped, leaving dark central cores off of which streamed some kind of gas. It took us a long time to understand what these were. They were the remains of dead bats, wings having long ago rotted away. The kids looked at me with big eyes. "When did that happen?" one boy asked. "That was back when I was in high school," I said. The boy's eyes got even bigger, and he said, "That was a LONG, L-O-N-G time ago!!!" I wanted to explain that it was just a short time ago, but I let the matter drop. 

I could tell the afterschool Club M experience was different at Carmichael than at Capitol. Still, some of the kids were willing to play outside in the heat. I watched a kid running towards a tree; almost like towards a base in some kind of ball game. The kid's eyes stretched upwards into the tree. Suddenly, a blonde waif, about 9-years-old, fell out of the tree and flat on her back in a cloud of dust. She was fine; it was just a surprise. Who knew she was there?

The Storm Next Time

It's always hard to know with hurricanes. Two factors promote them: 1.) warm surface water temperatures, and 2.) low vertical wind shear. If you don't have both factors going for you it's unlikely you'll get a hurricane. 

Hurricane Erin is now fluctuating between a Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane: the first Big One of the Atlantic season. All of the models have been 100% consistent that Hurricane Erin will break north, away from the Bahamas towards low pressure to the north, and miss Florida altogether. It might menace Bermuda and Newfoundland, but despite its size and strength Erin will probably affect very few people. 

I’m worried about the storm AFTER Erin. It doesn't exist yet but it’s the one to worry about. It will form farther south, causing all kinds of Caribbean misery. Current modeling suggests the storm will approach Florida. One scenario has it raking the western Florida coast from south to north on Thursday, August 28th - nearly two weeks away. A later modeling scenario shows the storm missing Florida, but slamming into North Carolina instead. The storm will be too close to the American mainland and it's bound to hit something. 

Who knows, maybe it will hit Mar-a-Lago instead?